Vice-president poll: How Modi's playbook defies pundits, past precedence

India Today

18 hours ago

On a humid August morning in New Delhi, the usually business-like National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parliamentary party meeting ended with a consequential decision. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president J.P. Nadda—who, as leader of the house in the Rajya Sabha, is central to the government's legislative strategy—were unanimously authorised to choose the alliance's nominee for the post of India's vice-president.The election, to be held on September 9, will be one of the rare instances wherein MPs from both houses of Parliament will vote together. Numbers matter in such contests, but in the current scenario, the NDA's advantage is so comfortable that the real exercise lies less in outmanoeuvring the Opposition and more in calibrating the BJP's political messaging—balancing region, caste, ideological roots and coalition arithmetic, and above all, shaping the narrative.advertisementThe upcoming election has been necessitated by the abrupt exit of Jagdeep Dhankhar as vice-president, citing health reasons. This mid-term vice-presidential poll will be only the second such instance in Indian history.The NDA's combined strength in Parliament leaves little doubt about the outcome. In the Rajya Sabha, the BJP holds 102 seats, and along with allies—JD(U), AIADMK, TDP, NPF and others—commands around 132 of the 239 filled seats. Seven nominated members in the Rajya Sabha are also eligible to vote, further cementing the NDA's dominance.
In the Lok Sabha, the BJP's 240 members and allies' 53-odd seats take the NDA tally to about 293 out of the current 542. When the two Houses vote together, the NDA crosses the simple majority threshold by a wide margin.The Opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress with 99 Lok Sabha MPs and supported by the likes of DMK, Trinamool Congress and the Left, would struggle to make a dent even with full mobilisation.The numerical cushion allows Modi and Nadda to think beyond pure electoral calculus. The vice-president is the ex-officio chairperson of the Rajya Sabha, a role that demands both parliamentary authority and the ability to manage an often-fractious Opposition.Dhankhar's exit sparked speculation about whether he had been asked to leave for purportedly seeking to leverage his influence beyond the chair's remit. He has neither confirmed nor denied such claims.The Modi government is cautious about who now occupies this high chair, a position both constitutionally significant and politically sensitive. There is no precedent or rule mandating that the vice-president be chosen from among politicians, governors or cabinet ministers; past holders of the office have come from diverse backgrounds.Careful craftIn the past decade, the BJP has used such appointments to expand its footprint into newer regions or communities. In 2017, when the party chose Ram Nath Kovind, a Dalit from Uttar Pradesh, as the president of India, it paired him with M. Venkaiah Naidu from Andhra Pradesh as vice-president, symbolically marrying the North and the South.In 2022, the elevation of Odisha's tribal leader Droupadi Murmu to the presidency was matched by Jagdeep Dhankhar, a Jat leader from Rajasthan, as vice-president. This rotation logic, covering different geographies, castes and communities, has become an unwritten rule. But this time, the situation is more complex since the BJP is also preparing to choose a new national president and overhaul its organisational structure.advertisementThe BJP's experience with Dhankhar—an outsider to the Sangh Parivar ranks—and earlier with the late Satya Pal Malik, a governor who turned sharply critical after his tenure, has strengthened the view within a section of the party that such constitutional posts should go to insiders with proven ideological loyalty. This lobby argues that the new vice-president should be a consensus-builder, but firmly rooted in the BJP-RSS ecosystem.This reasoning weakens the case for Bihar governor Arif Mohammad Khan, whose supporters argue that his elevation could appeal to moderate Muslims. It also complicates the prospects of Harivansh Narayan Singh, the JD(U) MP from Bihar and current deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha. A seasoned journalist-turned-parliamentarian, Singh enjoys cordial relations across party lines and has shown skill in running the Upper House.In 2022, when Nitish Kumar quit the NDA and pressured Harivansh Singh to follow suit, he refused. When Nitish rejoined the NDA in 2024, Singh played a pivotal role in smoothing the transition. His candidacy would please Nitish, but Bihar's placement in the East—already represented in recent years by Kovind and Murmu—weakens Singh's case. Besides, Singh lacks an RSS background and the BJP has had mixed experiences with outsiders.advertisementTwo other names under serious consideration carry long association with the Sangh Parivar. C.P. Radhakrishnan, the governor of Maharashtra, is a veteran from Tamil Nadu who has served as prant sanghchalak of the RSS from 1993 to 1998. He twice represented Coimbatore in the Lok Sabha, has been president of the BJP in Tamil Nadu, and belongs to the OBC Gounder community.Radhakrishnan's elevation would strengthen the BJP's southern outreach—a region where it has been investing heavily—and provide symbolic representation to a backward caste group in the Dravidian politics-dominated Tamil Nadu. However, his long gubernatorial stint away from Parliament means he would need to reacquaint himself quickly with the procedural demands of chairing the Rajya Sabha.Thawar Chand Gehlot, currently governor of Karnataka, is another RSS-bred leader with deep roots in the BJP organisation. A senior Dalit leader from Madhya Pradesh, Gehlot served multiple terms in the Lok Sabha before moving to the Rajya Sabha, where he was leader of the house, and has been a cabinet minister in the Modi government. Administrative experience, legislative acumen and community background make him an attractive candidate, particularly for consolidating Dalit support in the Hindi heartland. Gehlot's main drawback is his age—at 77, the leadership may consider whether a younger figure could better serve a full term and connect with emerging constituencies.advertisementGuess at your own riskPredicting the prime minister's choice is always a fraught exercise. Modi's playbook is marked by surprise, picking candidates who defy conventional arithmetic, overturning pundits' expectations and reframing the debate on his own terms. In the past, appointments that seemed obvious from a numbers or alliance perspective have been bypassed in favour of names that better serve a longer-term strategic goal.This unpredictability is part of Modi's political craft, ensuring both his allies and adversaries remain second-guessing. There had been conversation of bringing in women candidates from within the NDA, especially from the Union cabinet. However, with the country already having a woman president in Murmu, the idea fizzled out.There is no set precedent as to who can be nominated to be elected to the vice-presidential office; it could be someone with experience as a governor, Union minister, a professional or academic of repute or even an ex-diplomat. This flexibility allows Modi to think and position the ideological pivot for the post.advertisementThe looming element of surprise also means reading too much into any probable shortlist could be misleading. What appears to be a choice between alliance management, ideological consolidation or geographic outreach could be masking an entirely different priority.Modi has repeatedly shown that he values signalling—not just to Parliament or party cadre but to the electorate at large—and that the symbolism of an appointment can be as important as its operational utility. The only difference this time could be that he would have to take the Sangh's aspirations into consideration.Politics of narrativesIn weighing these options, the BJP faces a choice between alliance management and organisational consolidation, geographic outreach and ideological loyalty. Harivansh Singh would underscore coalition stability; Radhakrishnan would boost the party's southern push; Gehlot would reaffirm Dalit representation and seasoned parliamentary leadership. The decision will be read not just as a personal choice but as a reflection of Modi's broader political priorities.Modi had been pushing for more representations for the marginal communities, women, farmers, OBCs, tribals and Dalits; his choices for the top offices often came with these combinations. Radhakrishan comes from the South Indian OBC community of Gounders. The party tried heavily to win over the community with K. Annamalai. The push halted after the BJP decided to go for an alliance with the Edappadi K. Palaniswami-led AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Palaniswami incidentally belongs to the same community.The Opposition will most certainly field a candidate, aiming to build on a narrative to corner the NDA's politics. The INDIA bloc is reportedly looking to announce its candidate after the NDA does. But given the NDA's numbers, the contest will be ceremonial. The BJP's pick will speak volumes about its strategy, future ambitions and the balance it seeks between ideology, outreach and control. The country will soon know who will wrestle for the second highest office in the country. And what Modi's choice is.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch