Bold predictions for 2025 MLB season: Could both New York teams miss the playoffs?

Fox Sports

28-03-2025

The best bold predictions strike the right balance between improbability and practicality. They're unlikely, but they're at least within the realm of possibility.
Predicting Aaron Judge will win MVP isn't bold; predicting Elly De La Cruz will hit 100 homers isn't rational. Steal 100 bases, though? Well, now we're talking.
While that prediction didn't make the cut, here are 13 bold ones for the 2025 MLB season. (And if even one of them happens, I'm counting this as a win.)
1. Former college teammates win NL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year
In 2023, Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews made history as the first college teammates (LSU) to go in the top two picks in the MLB Draft. Two years later, more history beckons this season as the college teammates win Cy Young and Rookie of the Year, respectively.
It's not hard to imagine Skenes, the Pirates ace and 2024 N.L. Rookie of the Year, being the best pitcher in baseball over a full season. But for both him and Crews to win at least makes this a little bolder. Crews was more solid than spectacular on his rise up the minor league ranks, but the Nationals outfielder possesses the all-around skills to make a leap.
Don't worry, bolder prognostications are coming.
RELATED: Ranking the 10 best starting pitchers in MLB for 2025
2. Another pair of former college teammates finish top three in AL Rookie of the Year voting
A year ago, many expected a tandem of Rangers rookies to contend for a Rookie of the Year Award. It didn't happen for Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, but it will this year for Vanderbilt dynamic duo Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who seize their opportunity in the Texas rotation.
Rocker wins the Rookie of the Year Award ahead of Boston's Roman Anthony, who finishes second, and Leiter, who finishes third. Jacob Wilson, who only hits five homers but becomes the first qualified rookie to bat .315 in a season since Mike Trout, finishes fourth.
All right, time to get wackier …
3. In a wild trade deadline, Nolan Arenado goes to the Yankees, Sandy Alcantara goes to the Orioles, Luis Robert Jr. goes to the Phillies, Triston Casas goes to the Mariners and Rhys Hoskins goes to the Tigers … but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stays put
With the Yankees and Orioles both within striking distance of the division lead at the break, they make dueling moves hoping to separate. Arenado turns back the clock in a resurgent first half, and the Yankees hope he can fix their offensive woes. Baltimore, in desperate need of pitching to pair with its explosive offense, gets the best arm available at the deadline. The Mariners finally deal from their pitching excess in an effort to add some much-needed pop, and the Tigers also bring some extra power to the infield.
While the A.L. East is active, the Blue Jays, trailing in the division but not far enough back to pull the plug, hold onto Guerrero, who still has yet to sign an extension. The move doesn't pay off as the Jays still miss the playoffs while Guerrero reaches free agency.
RELATED: 2025 Top 50 MLB Players: Is Shohei Ohtani still No. 1?
4. The Red Sox win the division by 10 games
The Red Sox, meanwhile, run away in the East. We're accustomed to the division, perennially one of the most formidable in baseball, being a battle in recent years. That changes in 2025.
Boston pulls away in early September, and for the first time since the Orioles won by 12 games in 2014, an A.L. East squad wins the division by double-digit games. The infield tandem of Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers — who shifts to first base after a midseason Casas trade — plus third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Roman Anthony make the offense one of baseball's best, while the Orioles, Yankees and Rays battle for a final wild-card spot.
Only one is available, though because …
5. Both West divisions get three teams into the postseason
The Phillies win the division on the final day of the regular season, but the Braves clinch a wild-card spot early. The D-backs have already secured the top wild-card seed but can't catch the Dodgers. It's a fight to the finish between the Mets and the Padres for the last playoff spot, but the Dads win out behind an MVP caliber season from Fernando Tatis Jr., who finishes second for the award.
The Rangers win the West, rookie Cam Smith and Cy Young candidate Hunter Brown help the Astros avoid a full meltdown in the post-Tucker/Bregman era, and Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo all finish in the top seven in Cy Young voting to get Seattle to the playoffs. Both Central divisions only get the winner into the dance, and the Orioles emerge with the final wild-card spot in the A.L. East.
6. … Which means both New York teams miss the playoffs
The Mets finish the year with 88 wins behind one of the best offenses in baseball, but even David Stearns can't fix a pitching staff that ultimately dooms them as they finish in third place — one game out of the postseason — in the first year of the Juan Soto era despite a brilliant year from the 26-year-old.
As for the Yankees, despite all the admirable moves they made in the wake of Soto going to Queens, the season looks eerily like a repeat of 2023. They again avoid a losing season, but they can't account for all the injuries. Judge can only do so much as the team finishes just one game over .500 and in fourth place.
RELATED: Young Yankees making noise will help, but NY's offense still depends on Aaron Judge
7. The Diamondbacks go from a bottom-five rotation to a top-five rotation
Getting the top wild-card seed means another strong year from the offense, which sees a bounceback season from Corbin Carroll, a breakout year from Jake McCarthy and help from top prospect Jordan Lawlar. But it also means the starting pitchers get back on track.
Just about everything that could have gone wrong last year on the Diamondbacks' pitching staff did. While their bullpen still looks shaky heading into October, Corbin Burnes helps stabilize a rotation that gets healthy seasons from Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly to post a 3.70 ERA as a group, more than a run better than last year. Behind the Dodgers, this is the second-best team in the National League.
8. Bobby Witt Jr. produces MLB's first 200-40-40-40 season
Two years ago, we saw Ronald Acuña Jr. produce the first 40-homer, 70-steal season in MLB history. Last year, we saw Shohei Ohtani record MLB's first 50-50 season. Given all the young talent in the game, it wouldn't be a surprise to see more power/speed threats rewrite the history books this year.
It might not have the same ring as 50/50, but Bobby Witt Jr. will follow one of the all-time great non-MVP seasons by becoming the first player ever to record 200 hits, 40 homers, 40 doubles and 40 steals in a season.
9. A record 10 players have a 30-30 season …and Shohei Ohtani isn't one
Last year, Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Ramírez were the only players to record 30 homers and 30 steals. The year before, four players — Witt, Ronald Acuña Jr., Francisco Lindor and Julio Rodriguez — reached those totals. Never before has there been a season with more than four players to go 30-30.
That changes this year when 10 (yes, 10) players — Witt, Lindor, Rodriguez, Ramîrez, Tatis, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, Jackson Chourio, Michael Harris II and Jazz Chisholm — all reach the mark. De La Cruz doesn't steal 100 bases, but he does produce the first 35-75 season in MLB history.
Ohtani, in an effort to protect against injury on the basepaths, is not one of those 10.
10…But Ohtani is one of four players with 50 home runs
We haven't seen four players reach the 50-homer mark in the same season since 2001, and it's only happened two times ever. That was also the last year a player recorded at least 50 homers in back-to-back campaigns, when Alex Rodriguez accomplished the feat.
This year, both Ohtani and Judge launch 50 homers for a second consecutive year, and they'll be joined in the 50-homer club by Brent Rooker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who ups his price tag in a career year.
11. Mike Trout turns back the clock, ties career-high with 45 homers
It's worth remembering, despite the many injuries the last few years, that he did hit 10 homers in 29 games last year. He's still a star when he's on the field.
Just give us a 130-game season. Please?
12. With a boost from their new home stadiums, Isaac Paredes leads all third basemen and Brandon Lowe leads all second basemen in home runs
Paredes finished tied for 76th overall and 12th among third basemen in home runs last year. That changes at Daikin Park, where his extreme pull-heavy power shines. He'll hit exactly double the amount he had last year, finishing with 38.
Lowe hasn't changed teams, but he'll now be playing at the much more lefty-friendly confines of Steinbrenner Field. It results in a career-high 40-homer season.
13. The World Series pits the last two winners of the Fall Classic against each other
All right, not exactly going all-out on the final prediction. But there's enough packed into this list already to call it bold, and there's just no way you can look at the Dodgers' roster and logically pick a different team.
As for the Rangers, just about anything that could go wrong offensively last year did. I see that group trending back upward to become a top-five offense. And if (big, giant, massive if) Jacob deGrom can stay upright, the ceiling is as high for them as any team in the American League. The Dodgers become the first team to repeat since the 2000 Yankees, and calls for a salary cap (which won't happen) only get louder.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner .
recommended
Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more