Earnings playbook: Reporting season ramps up with more ‘Magnificent 7' results this week
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Business Insider
20 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Behind Michael Gelband and $11 billion hedge fund ExodusPoint's strong year
There were sky-high expectations for the ExodusPoint Capital Management when it launched 7 years ago. It's starting to meet them. The $11 billion firm was the largest launch in industry history in 2018 thanks to the stellar track record of cofounder Michael Gelband, who previously led Millennium's fixed-income division. He told former colleagues that his unit generated $7 billion in trading revenue in his eight years at Izzy Englander's firm, and hedge fund backers rushed to invest in his new firm, which started trading with a record $8.5 billion. But putting all of the capital to work, hiring scores of investors, setting up the necessary infrastructure, and finding the right leadership took time. The firm, which was also cofounded by former Millennium equities executive Hyung Lee, was a relative disappointment at the start, with the difficult reality of being compared to funds like the cofounders' former employer and Ken Griffin's Citadel from day one. Now, a little over seven years after the manager first began trading, the New York-based firm has outperformed its peers in 2025 and over the last 12 months. The manager is up more than 9% after a 1.8% June gain. Since the start of July 2024, ExodusPoint has returned more than 18%. A person with direct knowledge of the firm's operations pointed to several factors as to why. This person is not permitted to speak publicly about the manager's operations. In a roller coaster equities market, ExodusPoint has benefited from its fixed-income lean. Roughly 75% of the firm's risk is in fixed-income books, the person close to the firm said, which is Gelband's specialty, though the cofounder does not manage money himself. Jon Hoffman, a former Lehman Brothers trader who worked with Gelband at the bank, is one of the firm's best-known portfolio managers with his basis-trade strategy. Gelband is now the sole chief investment officer after Lee stepped down in 2024 (the cofounder, who had relocated to Puerto Rico, is currently a senior advisor). The firm made several hires in 2023 who have led units that were previously under Lee's purview, such as Adam Galeon and Michael Lapsa, who run long-short equities and systematic strategies, respectively. Peter McConnon, once the head of London macro for Balyasny, was also brought in during this time as a senior managing director of fixed income and macro. While members of the original team such as Lee and former chief risk officer Dev Joneja have moved into advisory roles, Garrett Berg, a day-one employee who has since been promoted to president and COO, and Kunal Kumar, a former Balyasny executive who joined in 2023 and is now chief risk officer, have been a big part of the progress on both the investment and non-investment sides of the business, this person said. The firm also adopted a cash hurdle for performance fees last year, meaning ExodusPoint only collects performance fees when it returns more than a Treasury bill. This has lowered the overall fee rate of the firm, boosting net returns. Lastly, the firm has been strategic about how it expands and hires. While headcounts at multistrategy funds have exploded in recent years, ExodusPoint reduced its staff slightly since 2022, according to regulatory filings compiled by industry data tracker Old Well Labs. The firm's overall headcount stood at 688 in 2022 and is now roughly 650, the data show. After raising $1 billion in new cash in 2023, the firm is closed to new capital, like many of its peers, and is not looking to expand into different strategies or markets like commodities or private credit, the person said.
The Intercept
21 minutes ago
- The Intercept
Donald Trump Jr.'s Drone Ventures Could Make a Killing — Thanks to Dad's Big Beautiful Budget
Last November, shortly after Donald Trump was reelected president, his son Donald Trump Jr. joined a venture capital firm with investments in several defense companies. Later that month, he was appointed the advisory board of Unusual Machines, a small, Florida-based drone company incorporated in Nevada. Securities filings showed Trump Jr. owned 331,580 shares in the company, with only two top executives holding more. After he joined the board, the stock doubled to about $10 a share. It was a boon for Trump Jr., but not his last chance to make big money off drones — and his efforts to do so may get a big helping hand from dad. President Donald Trump's military procurement policies, defense budget, and recently passed government budget, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, includes $1.4 billion dollars for small drone production — where Unusual Machines has been making big investments. 'There is no modern or historical comparison for what Don Jr. and the President are doing.' With his father's administration footing the bill for massive domestic drone expansion, good government watchdogs fear Trump Jr. could benefit financially, creating a conflict of interest, or at least the appearance of one — without anyone even finding out. The president's family is not subject to the same financial disclosures that federal officials must make about their financial and business interests. 'Don Jr. is not subject to any disclosures,' said Donald Sherman, executive vice president and chief counsel at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW. 'There's just innumerable ways that this company with ties to Don Jr. can lobby the administration through him without having to report that information.' (Unusual Machines, the Trump Organization, and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.) Though many current and former elected officials have deep ties to the defense industry, Sherman said the Trumps' positions were unique in their scale and brazenness. 'I want to make clear that this is a problem, and it's a problem that impacts the whole of government,' Sherman said, 'but there is no modern or historical comparison for what Don Jr. and the President are doing.' Unusual Machines has been positioning itself to benefit from legislative and government policy changes. The company is made up of two parts: Fat Shark, which makes goggles, controllers, and other drone components and accessories; and an e-commerce platform called Rotor Riot, which sells drone parts. According to a pitch deck for investors, Unusual Machines also plans to acquire an Australian drone motor manufacturer, Rotor Lab. The acquisition of Rotor Lab, according to the presentation, is part of a wider plan to move the small-drone supply chain to American soil. The company will produce its own drone motors at a planned 17,000 square foot facility in Orlando, Florida. That facility is, according to the pitch deck, part of an effort to 'onshore' more drone manufacturing and avoid heavy tariffs on Chinese drone technology. Moving more manufacturing to the U.S. will also help comply with new government national security regulations and Pentagon procurement policies. Congress has just begun work on the 2026 defense budget, or National Defense Authorization Act. The NDAA is set to prioritize government funding for bringing production of small drone components to the U.S., including at private manufacturing facilities. And a July 10 memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth states the Pentagon's intention to invest significantly in American-made drones and drone components — like those Unusual Machines plans to manufacture starting in September, according to the investor presentation. (The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.) Some of Unusual Machines' moves are already in line with military drone applications. The company will make motors for first-person view drones, or FPVs — small drones of the kind already being trialed in military exercises — at the new Orlando facility. Because the company is focusing on making and selling FPV drone components that comply with the NDAA, they'd also stand to benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's billions in subsidies for military drone technology, including $1.4 billion 'for the expansion of the small unmanned aerial system industrial base.' Unusual Machines has a promising position in the market; since small drones are traditionally made for commercial use, larger defense contractors may have them in the catalog but haven't focused as much on developing them. Unusual Machines says in its investor presentation that bringing manufacturing to the U.S. will give it a 'strong competitive advantage.' Experts worry that having Trump Jr. on their side could do the same thing. 'There's always these risks that he is going to have inside information or be able to access inside information from the U.S. government for a whole range of things,' Colby Goodman, an arms trade expert at Transparency International U.S., said. 'Just from the procurement side, he could know about upcoming bids, and the content of what that is, and help them win contracts with the U.S. government.' 'When contractors don't get the U.S. government contracts they want … they backfill with arm sales and deals with foreign entities.' Even if Unusual Machines doesn't win contracts with the government, that doesn't mean it won't make money, Julia Gledhill, a research analyst for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, said. 'What happens when contractors don't get the U.S. government contracts they want is then they backfill with arm sales and deals with foreign entities,' Gledhill said. 'There's something to be said, potentially, about the idea that contractors are going to develop technologies or weapons with state support and make money by selling them elsewhere.' Trump Jr.'s ties to the defense and drone industries go further than his role with Unusual Machines. He's also a partner at 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm led by Republican megadonor Omeed Malik. The company's investments include plenty of defense firms like Anduril, AI-powered aerospace firm Hadrian, and Firehawk. Trump Jr.'s involvement in investment decisions isn't clear, but he's been positioned as a face of the company alongside Malik at events including the Qatar Economic Forum. 'Mr. Malik and Donald Trump Jr. have an established business relationship that dates back more than five years, which is why the firm was thrilled to welcome Don's business expertise last year in the role of partner,' said a 1789 spokesperson, who touted the firm's compliance and transparency records. 'Don, as a private citizen who has never served in government, is permitted to continue to pursue his decades-long career in business.' Trump Jr.'s potential benefit from his investments through 1789 would shake out differently from Unusual Machines. Partners in venture capital firms typically take a fee to manage investments in startups. Then, if those companies make a big return when they go public or are acquired by another firm, the venture capitalists can make money after they repay institutional investors. VCs also receive other benefits like a seat on the company's board or equity in the company. Start-ups backed by 1789 would be better positioned to be acquired or go public — as Anduril expects to do — with lucrative government contracts in hand. The fact that Trump Jr. stands to benefit from his father's presidency so much, on top of his family's wealth, clearly present conflicting interests, said Sherman, the CREW expert — but it's not illegal. Although there is legislation aimed at eliminating some types of conflicts of interest, there's no comprehensive bill aimed at the adult children of high-ranking officials. 'The rules themselves aren't designed, unfortunately, to force the adult children of government officials to report their financial entanglements,' Sherman said. 'But Don Jr. and President Trump continue to make the case for why maybe they should.'
CNBC
22 minutes ago
- CNBC
China's Laopu Gold shares fall despite forecast of tripling profits
Shares of Laopu Gold fell to their lowest levels since May 20 after the Chinese jewelry upstart forecasted its net profit for the first half of 2025 would increase between 279% and 288% year over year, or between RMB 2.23 billion and RMB 2.28 billion ($311.11 million to $318.08 million). The stock, which is up 203.07% for the year to date, rose nearly 4% in early trade, but pared back gains as investors locked in their profits. While shares of Laopu Gold are on course for their ninth straight session of decline, they have skyrocketed by more than 2,000% since their listing last year. The Hong Kong-listed company also reported in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Sunday that its projected revenue for the first half of the year would increase between 241% and 255% from the same period last year. Concerns over rising gold prices and market downgrades in earning expectations have caused the stock to fall from its peak in early July, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research report on Monday. Citi analysts also attributed the retreat in Laopu's share price to a reset in market expectations and "unwinding fund flow," adding that the stock appears relatively cheap. However, consulting firm Oliver Wyman said that Laopu's earnings are less tied to fluctuations in gold prices, unlike traditional jewelers, due to the designs of its products, which blend ancient craftsmanship with contemporary appeal. The Chinese jewelry brand was founded in 2009 and is popular among younger consumers for its distinctive designs, including ancient coin pendants and lotus motifs. "We believe Laopu's current valuation has become more attractive in the past three weeks despite the company's intact growth story", Nomura analysts said in a report. The Beijing-based company attributed the increase in its top and bottom lines to the brand's expansion online and through offline boutiques. Laopu has boutiques in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and opened its first overseas store at Singapore's Marina Bay Sands in June. Laopu's success contrasts with more tepid consumer spending in China. Affluent Chinese are more negative on the economy than they were during the pandemic, according to a survey released last week by Oliver Wyman. The report found that many respondents are shifting their spending away from luxury goods toward experiences, such as travel. Similarly, Labubu-maker Pop Mart had issued an upbeat profit forecast for the first half of 2025 earlier this month, but initially dropped on the news. Pop Mart shares are up by 175.74% year-to-date. In contrast, shares of Chinese sportswear company Anta have increased by 17.15% so far this year. The company's said in a filing that it achieved "mid-single digit positive growth" for house brand products and "high-single digit positive growth" for Fila-branded products for the first half of this year.
