
The simple test that could predict how long you will live
Researchers tested 4,282 adults aged 46-75 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2023, to evaluate non-aerobic physical fitness, including muscle strength, flexibility, and balance.
The test required participants to sit and rise from the floor without using support from hands, elbows, or knees, with points deducted for any assistance or loss of balance.
The study concluded that non-aerobic physical fitness, as assessed by this test, was a significant predictor of natural and cardiovascular mortality.
After about 12 years, participants with a perfect 10 score had a 3.7 per cent death rate, while those scoring 0-4 points showed a dramatically higher death rate of 42.1 per cent.
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The Guardian
43 minutes ago
- The Guardian
How dangerous are wildfires and how can we stop them from getting worse?
With bigger and stronger wildfires becoming more common as Europe swelters in record-breaking heat, people will need to adapt and learn how to stay safe. Wildfires directly kill hundreds of people around the world each year. Though they may seem apocalyptic, the death toll is far lower than from floods, which kill thousands, and from heatwaves, which kill hundreds of thousands. But when you factor in smoke, the human cost rises rapidly. The latest study estimates that the air pollution spewed by wildfires kills a staggering 1.5 million people each year. The toxic fumes can reach so far that tendrils of smoke from Australian bushfires have menaced South America, while smoke from Canadian fires – which regularly suffocate cities across the US – have fouled the air in Europe. Many things can spark a wildfire: natural causes such as lightning, faulty infrastructure such as downed power lines, or people behaving badly. Devastating blazes in recent years have been started by smokers tossing cigarette butts, tourists failing to put out campfires, and even arsonists intentionally setting nature alight. But whether those sparks turn into small fires or raging blazes depends on the weather. Fires need hot, dry fuel to burn, and they spread further with strong winds. Fossil fuel pollution has heated the planet by about 1.3C, raising the risk of prolonged heat that turns forests and grasslands into tinderboxes. In some regions, such as the Mediterranean, global heating is also fuelling droughts that dry out lush greenery. Scientists have found that such shifts have made the wildfires that have happened this year in places including California, South Korea and Australia more likely – in some cases doubling the chance of extreme weather conditions that help fires spread. Even as the planet has heated up, the area torched by fires has fallen. This is because people have taken nature that used to burn freely and turned it into farms or cities – in recent decades mainly in Africa – that stop the spread of flames. The latest models find land use changes and other human drivers have shrank the burned area by 19.1% since 1900, while climate changes increased it by 15.8% – resulting in a small decline of 3.3% overall. The conditions for ferocious fires are expected to worsen as the planet bakes. Two separate indices of fire weather project a steady rise in the number of days with high fire danger as temperatures inch higher, a recent study found. By the end of the century, the total burned area is projected to rise by 40% even in an optimistic scenario for cutting carbon pollution, according to a separate study. In a worst-case scenario, it is set to double. The danger that wildfires pose to people and property can drop sharply by managing land better. This can include creating fire breaks to stem the spread of an inferno, stopping new settlement in places prone to fires, and even sending herds of goats into abandoned farmland to graze away overgrown vegetation. In some places firefighters are trying the technique of intentionally burning land to avoid a buildup of fuel that could lead to catastrophic fires – a long-running Indigenous practice in Australia and North America that European fire experts are starting to adopt. If you live somewhere at risk of wildfires, put a plan together before disaster strikes. This could include identifying safe routes and nearby shelters, and packing an emergency bag. Some fire services recommend creating a safe zone around your home that is free from leaves and flammable materials. Experts say you should vacate immediately if authorities tell you to – or if your home is at risk but warnings have not come. To avoid the smoke, keep windows closed and use respirator masks.


BBC News
4 hours ago
- BBC News
The deadly cancers left behind by 50 years of success
The number of people surviving cancer has improved hugely in the past 50 years, but experts warn progress has been uneven with some of the cancers with the worst survival rates falling further some, including melanoma skin cancer, 10-year survival is now above 90%, while for all cancers, half of patients can expect to live that long - double the figure in the early a study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said there had been little improvement in those affecting the oesophagus, stomach and lungs - and less than 5% survive pancreatic cancer for 10 government said it was committed to making more progress with a new strategy due soon. The researchers said advances in treatment and earlier detection were behind the improvements in survival seen for many cancer is a perfect example of this, with 10-year survival rates rising from 42% to more than 76% between 1971 and 2018 in England and period saw the introduction of an NHS breast screening programme, plus targeted therapies for different types of breast comparison, the cancers with the lowest survival rates tend to be the hardest to detect and have the fewest treatment pancreatic cancer, the study says these include oesophagus, stomach and lung cancers, which all still have 10-year survival rates below 20%, after only a small amount of progress since the has meant the gap between the cancers with the best and worst survival rates has nearly doubled. 'Amazing job' Matt Black is someone with first-hand experience of how the type of cancer you get makes a huge 2019 the 60-year-old lost his sister, Harriette, to pancreatic cancer, 20 years after his father-in-law died of oesophageal years ago he was diagnosed with bowel cancer which has above average survival rates. Soon after developing symptoms he had surgery and was given the all-clear."NHS staff do an amazing job, but it's such a difficult time to be a cancer patient, especially for those with cancers which aren't easy to spot or treat. "It's so important that there is more research and support for cancer services here, so that more people can be as fortunate as me," says Matt. The researchers also warned that, while overall survival was still improving, the rate of progress had slowed during the 2010s. Longer waits for diagnosis and treatment are thought to be partly to blame. Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, which funded the study, said: "Thanks to research, most patients today are far more likely to survive cancer than at any other point in the past."But the reality is that this progress is slowing – and for some cancers it never got going in the first place."The charity wants the government's forthcoming strategy to focus on:cutting waiting timesearly detection, including full introduction of a lung cancer screening programmeinvestment in research, particularly targeting the most deadly cancersA Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said cancer care was a priority. with some progress already made on waiting times."The national cancer plan will set out how we will improve survival rates further and address the unacceptable variation between different cancer types," he added.


Daily Mail
7 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Difference in survival rates between different types of cancer is bigger than ever while overall improvements have slowed, study reveals
The difference in survival rates between different types of cancer is bigger than ever while overall improvements have slowed, a study reveals. The proportion of UK patients surviving ten years or more ranges from 97 per cent for testicular cancer to just 4.3 per cent for pancreatic cancer. Survival for all cancers combined has increased dramatically since the 1970s but the gains were almost three-times faster in the early 2000s than the early 2010s. For a patient diagnosed in 2018, the likelihood of surviving cancer for at least a decade stands at 49.8 per cent compared to 23.7 per cent in the 1970s, researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found. Remarkably, the one year rate in 1971 was not even as high as the ten year rate in 2018. Breast, bowel and cervical cancer are among the cancer types which have seen large improvements in survival - partly due to effective screening programmes which can diagnose the disease at an earlier stage, when it is easier to treat. Innovations in treatment and improved awareness of symptoms have also contributed to better outcomes for many cancers, Cancer Research UK said. However, 'remarkable progress' for some cancer types has left others 'trailing behind', as survival for the most lethal cancers has hardly improved at all. Oesophagus, stomach, lung and brain cancer survival has only increased by a small amount in the past 50 years and remains below 20 per cent. Meanwhile, for pancreatic cancer, survival after ten years is still less than 5 per cent, according to findings published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. These forms of cancer are harder to detect and treat, which is why targeted research in this area is vital, experts say. Pressures on cancer services in the UK, resulting in longer waits for diagnosis and treatment, could be contributing to the overall slow-down in progress, they add. Researchers analysed long-term trends in cancer survival for adults across England and Wales from 1971 to 2018. Using records from the National Disease Registration Service for England and the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit, experts estimated net survival for up to 10 years after diagnosis for around 10.8 million people. In the five years from 2000/01 to 2005/06, the 10-year cancer survival index - an indicator of overall survival across all types of the disease- rose by 4 per cent, from 41.2 per cent to 45.2 per cent. But between 2010/11 and 2015/16, the rise was 1.4 per cent, from 47.9 per cent to 49.3 per cent. Researchers say a national cancer plan is 'essential' to 'bring cancer survival trends back towards the best in the world'. The Government launched a call for evidence to help shape a national cancer plan in February. The blueprint aims to outline actions to transform how the disease is treated in a bid to reduce deaths. Michel Coleman, a professor of epidemiology and statistics at LSHTM, said: 'Since I began my career in cancer research, I've seen substantial increases in survival for most types of cancer. 'Our understanding of cancer biology has expanded, effective screening programmes have been introduced, and new treatments have been developed. 'Allowing this trend to stall will have devastating consequences. 'The National Cancer Plan is a chance to improve NHS cancer pathways and reap the benefits of new research – the Government must take it.' Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, which funded the study, said: 'Thanks to research, most patients today are far more likely to survive their cancer than at any point in the past. 'But the reality is that this progress is slowing – and for some cancers, it never got going in the first place. 'The upcoming National Cancer Plan for England must include commitments to spot more cancers earlier, as well as backing research into new treatments so that each patient, regardless of their diagnosis, can hope for more moments with the people they love.' Cancer Research UK is calling for the national cancer plan to slash waiting times for diagnosis and treatment, saying some patients face unacceptable delays. The plan should also improve early diagnosis of cancer, with plans to boost participation in existing screening programmes and a commitment to rolling out lung cancer screening fully in England by 2029. A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: 'We are prioritising cancer care as we turn around more than a decade of neglect of our NHS. 'We're already seeing progress, with 95,000 more people having cancer diagnosed or ruled out within 28 days between July 2024 and May 2025, compared to the same period the previous year. 'The National Cancer Plan will set out how we will improve survival rates further and address the variation between different cancer types.'