MLB NL Rookie of the Year Predictions: Odds, expert picks, including Jacob Misiorowski, Burns, Ramirez

NBC Sports

a day ago

The National League Rookie of the Year market is beginning to look like a runaway as Jacob Misiorowski attempts to become a household name.
The Milwaukee Brewers rookie pitcher is now listed at -180 at DraftKings Sportsbook after being +1700 prior to his first start.
Since June 12, Misiorowski's odds have moved from +1700 to +1100 to +300 to +150 to -110 to -190 and in that span — it's clear that no one else has shined the way he has.
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National League Rookie of the Year: Jacob Misiorowski (-180)
There is an influx of new generational talent coming up the MLB pipeline from players capable of stealing bases at record rates like Chandler Simpson of the Rays or Paul Skenes starting the All-Star game as a rookie last year for the Pirates — the next in line for stardom is Jacob Misiorowski.
In his first three career starts, Misiorowski (-180) has totaled 16.0 innings pitched, 3 wins to 0 losses, 3 hits allowed, 2 earned runs allowed (1.13 ERA), and 19 strikeouts to 7 walks. Misiorowski walked four in his debut start against St. Louis but walked three and struck out 14 over the next two starts.
In his MLB debut against the Cardinals, Misiorowski made an immediate impact throwing 100+ MPH pitches in his first three pitches and 11 of his first 24. He recorded the fastest pitch of any Brewer in the statcast era dating back to 2008, plus recorded a no-hitter through 5.0 innings. The 23-year-old is a star.
Misiorowski's latest rise came when he went head-to-head with Paul Skenes and the Pirates. It was a sight and very hyped game as these could be two of the best pitchers over the next five to ten years. Skenes is 6-foot-3 and 260 lbs, in other words a tank, while Misiorowski is 6-foot-7 and 197 lbs — a slender assassin.
Milwaukee was victorious against Pittsburgh, 4-2, and Misiorowski dominated for his third straight win. Misiorowski went five strong scoreless innings on 74 pitches with eight strikeouts, two walks, and two hits allowed.
While Skenes dominated last year and was the talk of the rookie pitching class, it's clear that Misiorowski is the 2025 version. At anything below -250 (DraftKings has -180), Misiorowski is a play because the award is his to lose.
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Cincinnati's Chase Burns (+2500) appeared to be Misiorowski's biggest competition after his MLB debut consisted of eight strikeouts over 5.0 innings against the Yankees, including five of the first six batters. However, Burns could not get out the first inning (0.1 IP) in his next start, on the road at St. Louis. Burns allowed five earned runs (seven runs overall), five hits, two walks and one homer. We can't trust that, so I will pass on Burns.
Atlanta's Drake Baldwin (+450) is now second in terms of odds, but has gone cold recently. Baldwin is hitless over the last four games (9 AB) and hitting 0.83 over the past seven days (12 AB).
In the last 30 days, Baldwin is hitting .186 with 14 strikeouts to 10 walks, plus 11 hits, 11 RBI, and four homers. Overall, a .273 batting average, 9 home runs and 26 RBI through 57 games isn't anything to hang your head on, but I don't think it will be enough to hang with Misiorowski.
Miami's Agustin Ramirez (+1300) has watched his odds decrease in the past week despite Miami's eight-game winning streak. Ramirez is hitting .252 with 12 homers and 33 RBI through 59 games this season and even been hot over the last week with a .417 batting average (24 AB), 10 hits and 6 RBI.
If there was another bet to make in this market, it's Ramirez, but something is fishy for him to be playing well and seeing his odds move from +450 to +1300. Keep an eye on Ramirez because he may be the main hedge in this market.
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Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler (+7000) was another player to keep an eye on for NL Rookie of the Year, but his big league debut will be delayed even further after six earned runs allowed over 2.2 innings in his most recent Triple-A start. Chandler was expected to make a debut in May or early June this season, but his struggles have prevented that.
Misiorowski's teammates Chad Patrick (+3000) and Isaac Collins (+2500) have made strides in this market, but sharing the spotlight won't earn either many first place votes.
The Dodgers' Hyeseong Kim (+2500) is another contender because of his .369 batting average on 31 hits through 38 games, but the sample size is still relatively low. Kim has two homers, seven stolen bags, 12 RBI, 16 runs scored, and 19 strikeouts to five walks, so there isn't a lot of encouragement there outside the batting average.
It's obvious that Misiorowski is the play. I already played Misiorowski at +1100 and -110 odds and gave those out here at NBC, so if you haven't bet on him already, you are running out of time.
Get involved with Misiorowski one way or another for NL Rookie of the Year as it's his award to lose.
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski to win NL Rookie of the Year (Total of 1.5 units risked)
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