House debates Trump's agenda bill and Pentagon pauses Ukraine shipment: Morning Rundown
Here's what to know today.
House Speaker Mike Johnson races to pass Trump's megabill
House Speaker Mike Johnson is racing against a July 4 deadline to approve the sweeping domestic policy package for President Donald Trump's agenda after it cleared the Senate. The bill might not have an easy path to passage in the House, where Republicans can only spare three votes and changes made by the Senate could be met with opposition.
The Senate narrowly passed the legislation yesterday in a 51-50 vote. Vice President JD Vance broke the tie after three Republicans — Sens. Rand Paul, Thom Tillis and Susan Collins — joined all Democrats in opposing the legislation. In the marathon overnight session that spanned more than 24 hours, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his team made several eleventh-hour changes to appease holdouts like Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who had expressed concerns about the bill's cuts to social safety net programs.
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The Senate-approved bill includes an extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, provisions to temporarily eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, and new funding for the military and Trump's immigration and mass deportation plans. It would also raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Also notable: Republicans used a trick known as 'current policy baseline' to obscure the cost of extending the tax cuts, essentially lowering the sticker price of the bill by $3.8 trillion, and setting a lasting precedent in weakening the Senate's usual 60-vote threshold.
A hurdle to passage in the House could come from the far-right Freedom Caucus, which fought for a $40,000 state and local tax, or SALT, deduction cap. The Senate's bill keeps the $40,000 cap, but the deduction would be cut back to a $10,000 cap after five years.
Meanwhile, several House members were scrambling to get to Washington, D.C., to vote on the bill after storms caused flight delays across the country.
More politics news:
Paramount has agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit brought by President Donald Trump that had alleged an interview that aired on CBS's '60 Minutes' last year with Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent for the presidency, was deceptively edited.
Trump attended the opening of a new immigration detention center in Florida dubbed 'Alligator Alcatraz.' He had some nice things to say about Gov. Ron DeSantis and rated their relationship a 10 — or 'maybe a 9.9.'
Zohran Mamdani has officially won New York City's Democratic mayoral primary with 56% of the vote. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who conceded on election night but will still be on the November ballot as an independent, received 44% of the vote.
What is it like working in Trump's West Wing? More than a dozen past and current administration officials described a freewheeling atmosphere that mirrors the president.
Trump and Elon Musk are fighting — again. Now, Musk's business interests and the billions in government contracts they enjoy are in the crosshairs.
Trump says Israel has agreed to ceasefire conditions
Israel and Hamas have yet to comment after President Donald Trump said on social media that Israel had 'agreed to the necessary conditions' to finalize a ceasefire deal to end the yearslong war in Gaza. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Trump said the 60-day ceasefire would allow for time to 'work with all parties to end the War.' He urged Hamas to take the deal and warned, 'it will only get worse.'
The Israeli Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Hamas has yet to weigh in. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week. Read the full story here.
Pentagon halts weapons shipment to Ukraine
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a pause in sending a shipment of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine over concerns about the U.S. military's stockpiles, according to two defense officials, two congressional officials and two sources with knowledge of the decision. The pause comes weeks after Hegseth ordered a review of the U.S. stockpile of munitions. The supply has been depleted in recent years as the U.S. sent assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia and to the Middle East as the U.S. fought Houthi rebels in Yemen and defended Israel and allies against Iran, four officials said.
Among the thousands of weapons being delayed are dozens of Patriot interceptors. President Donald Trump said last week after a NATO conference that the U.S. is trying to find such missiles to send to Ukraine. If the munitions are found to be in short supply or needed in other parts of the world, they could be held back even after the Hegseth-ordered assessment is complete. Read the full story here.
Jurors deliberate on final count in Sean Combs' trial
Jurors in Sean 'Diddy' Combs' federal trial are set to continue deliberations today behind closed doors on the racketeering conspiracy charge against the music mogul. Yesterday, the jury announced it made up its mind on four of the prosecution's five counts against Combs — two counts of sex trafficking and two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution — but said it could not reach a unanimous decision on the racketeering conspiracy charge. U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian instructed the jurors to keep talking.
The racketeering conspiracy charge was always going to be tough for the jury to come to a decision on, NBC News legal analyst Danny Cevallos wrote in an analysis, because it's a tough charge for even attorneys to understand. Read more about Tuesday's developments, and follow our live blog on NBCNews.com for key updates today.
The Dalai Lama says he plans to reincarnate, signals China should stay out of succession process
The Tibetan Buddhist institution led by the Dalai Lama will live on after he dies, with the spiritual leader putting an end to speculation that he would be the last person to hold the role.
The exiled religious figurehead, who is 89 and has spent almost 70 years living in exile in India, said that no one outside his organization has authority 'to interfere in this matter' amid growing worry about Chinese government intervention in the selection process.
The Chinese government responded to the comments swiftly, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying that any succession planning must comply with laws and regulations. In March, the Dalai Lama said in a new book that his successor would be born in the 'free world' outside China. Read the full story here.
Read All About It
Bryan Kohberger will appear at a hearing today about his apparent plea deal in the murders of four University of Idaho students in 2022. Here's what we know about the proposed deal.
A warehouse storing fireworks in California caught fire and exploded, causing pyrotechnics to detonate above the site and sparking a wildfire.
Jimmy Swaggart, one of the first televangelists to take his ministry to a massive TV audience before being embroiled in a damaging sex scandal, has died at the age of 90.
Lululemon is suing Costco, accusing the big box store of selling dupes of its apparel and claiming to suffer 'significant harm' to its reputation.
Over 143,000 pounds of bologna from a New Jersey-based company is being recalled for containing 'meat or poultry source materials' not declared on the product labels.
A 19-year-old who managed to escape a so-called 'panic house' in Mexico a year ago said he lived in fear after developing a drug addiction and falling victim to drug trafficking in Guanajuato, in central Mexico. 'Unfortunately, they've already killed my best friend and my relatives,' he told our colleagues at Noticias Telemundo. Panic houses are places to purchase and do drugs, but they also serve as recruitment bases for young people to become hitmen and operatives for criminal groups. And with a growing methamphetamine epidemic, one expert said more minors are getting roped into the deadly lifestyle. — Elizabeth Robinson, newsletter editor
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Talking Shop is an NBC Select series where we talk to interesting people about their most interesting buys. We recently spoke to Peach & Lily founder Alicia Yoon about her favorite sunscreen, daily conditioner, hair mousse and much more. Plus, we found over 29 nifty problem-solving kitchen gadgets on Amazon that every home chef could use.
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I want to invest in Europe's comeback. Where do I start?
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Reuters
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Morning Bid: Trade optimism gives way to caution over US jobs
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Will Trump's tax bill help or hurt you? It may depend on your income
"It's still higher-income households that are the winners, especially those who are alive today," said Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. The analysis also found the Senate's version of the tax bill, which narrowly passed on July 1, would lead to higher deficits and slower economic growth compared to its counterpart from the House. The bill heads to the House for final approval. Trump has asked for a final version on his desk and ready for signature by July 4, but acknowledged the deadline may be "very hard to do" as some House Republicans voice frustrations with changes made in the Senate. Trump's big tax bill is a win. It could also be a big problem for GOP What's different under the Senate version of the tax bill? The legislation, dubbed the "One, Big Beautiful Bill" by Trump, would make the 2017 tax cuts from Trump's first term permanent, increase the child tax credit and introduce other tax cuts, including no taxes on tips or overtime wages. To help pay for the cuts, the government would reduce spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, and make cuts to Medicaid, a program that provides health insurance to more than 71 million low-income Americans. The version in the Senate has some key differences from the House bill, including: Permanent tax breaks for corporations that allow businesses to deduct the full cost of qualifying investments and research projects immediately, rather than over a number of years. In the House's bill, these tax breaks were in effect from 2025 to 2029. Permanently enhancing the standard deduction, adding $750 for single filers, $1,125 for heads of households and $1,500 for married couples starting in 2025. There was a temporary adjustment in the House's version that added $1,000 for single filers, $1,500 for heads of households and $2,000 for couples from 2025 to 2028. Permanently raising the child tax credit to $2,200 starting in 2026, compared to a temporary increase to $2,500 through 2028 in the House bill. "The Senate one makes things more permanent," Smetters told USA TODAY. "On the one hand, we don't have to revisit the same politics in four years. On the other hand, there's a fiscal cost associated with that. That means more debt and more burdens inherited by future generations." More Americans would also lose Medicaid under the Senate's version, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, with an estimated 11.8 million people uninsured by 2034, compared to previous estimates of 10.9 million people under the House's proposal. 5 takeaways: Trump asserts dominance with 'big, beautiful bill' Senate passage Impact on future generations Various analyses suggest Trump's tax bill would reward higher-earning Americans more than their lower-earning counterparts. A June analysis of the House bill by the Congressional Budget Office, for instance, found resources for the poorest would decrease by about $1,600 per year under the legislation, largely due to cuts to Medicaid and food aid - which would be more aggressive under the Senate bill. Meanwhile, the wealthiest would gain about $12,000 on average. Another June report from the Yale Budget Lab suggests the bottom fifth of earners would lose about $560 per year while the top 20% would gain $6,000. But all future generations, no matter their income, would experience lifetime losses, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. High-income households are set to lose $5,700 under the Senate's bill, while low-income households would lose $22,000. The report points to a reduced social security net and lower wages as the main drivers. Under the House bill, the Penn Wharton Budget Model projected lifetime losses ranging from $500 for high-income households to $15,800 for low-income households. "The future generations, they're going to be worse off. It doesn't matter where on the income bracket they fall," Smetters said. "Ultimately, someone has to pay for (the tax bill), and we're basically passing it on to the next generation." Slower economic growth While the House version showed a 0.4% gain in GDP by year 10, according to the Budget Model's previous analysis, the Senate's version would yield a 0.3% loss. After 30 years, GDP would drop 4.6% under the Senate bill compared to a 1.5% drop under the House version. Higher deficits Primary deficits are projected to increase $3.1 trillion over the next decade through the Senate's tax bill, compared to roughly $2.7 trillion under the House bill, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model. Other reports have also found a higher debt load under the Senate bill. The Congressional Budget Office projects it would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, $800 billion more than the House's bill. And a July report from the Yale Budget Lab says the Senate's bill would add $3 trillion to the debt by 2034, compared to an estimated $2.4 trillion under the House bill. How much do lower-income Americans stand to lose? According to the most recent Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis, the lowest-earning households stand to lose after-tax-and-transfer income in both the short- and long-run, while higher earners would see gains under the Senate bill. Those earning less than $18,000 would lose $235 on average in 2027 and $1,380 by 2033. Those earning between $18,000 and $52,999 would lose $75 in 2027 and $1,625 by 2033. Those earning between $53,000 and $95,999 would gain $1,350 in 2027 but lose $130 by 2033. Those earning between $96,000 and $178,999 would gain $3,880 in 2027 and $2,825 by 2033. Those earning between $179,000 and $271,999 would gain $6,615 in 2027 and $4,985 by 2033. Those earning between $272,000 and $400,999 would gain $9,360 in 2027 and $7,670 by 2033. Those earning between $401,000 and $1,019,999 would gain $20,605 in 2027 and $18,645 by 2033. Those earning between $1,020,000 and $4,450,999 would gain $36,020 in 2027 and $29,430 by 2033. Those with an income above $4,451,000 would gain $290,485 in 2027 and $82,255 by 2033. Smetters said figures may be slightly adjusted as more information on specific amendments becomes available.
