Calm returns after overnight Tripoli clashes as major militia leader reportedly killed
Calm seems to have returned to Tripoli this morning after overnight clashes between various state-recognised militias and army forces from within Tripoli – with support from Misrata based forces.
After 9 pm Tripoli time, the public were advised by the Tripoli government to stay at home. Shops closed and the city was near deserted as shots were heard in the distance. Schools and universities announced they were closed and Mitiga airport flights were halted by airliners.
The varying narratives
The most widely circulated narrative says that Abdelghani Ghnewa Al-Kikly, leader of the powerful Tripoli state-recognised militia, the Support and Stability Apparatus (SSA), based in the Abusleem district, attended a meeting in the Tikbali barracks in Salah Al-Deen, south of Tripoli.
Tikbali is controlled by the 444 Brigade, a brigade that is not considered a militia as it is headed Mahmoud Hamza, who, unlike most other top militias, is not a warlord who had made his name fighting in the 2011 revolution. He is government appointed. It is considered the closest thing to a state army.
The narratives differ as to why Ghnewa, and six members of his militia, variously referred to as his entourage or bodyguards, were at Tikbali. The most accepted theory is that they were there for negotiations with Hamza and Abdelsalam Al-Zubi, Aldabaiba's Deputy Defence Minister, and leaders of the Misrata-based 111 Brigade to de-escalate the tensions in Tripoli, and elsewhere, over the last few days and weeks.
Cutting Ghnewa down to size?
What this de-escalation entailed and what was requested of Ghnewa, is still vague. Ghnewa has been overreaching himself territorially over the years by extending his operations to beyond the Western / Nefusa Mountains and Khoms. There have been recent clashes with him in Khoms and the Gharian.
He and his followers, headed mostly by extended family members from his relatively small Western Mountain homeland town of Kikla, have also been overreaching themselves in the state. They have been increasingly forcing their personnel into many state agencies, development and investment funds, telecoms agencies and diplomatic missions. This disproportionate influence by SSA members has been resented by the Aldabaiba government and other cities and militias.
The Tikbali negotiations went wrong?
The theory goes that the Tikbali negotiations were unsuccessful and Ghnewa either refused to de-escalate, or threatened to use force, or that negotiations turned into a fraught argument which ascended into a macho flexing of muscles and finally into an unintended shootout.
Unconfirmed deaths?
It is during this assumed shootout that Ghnewa and his six personnel were supposedly killed. Social media images have shown a photo purporting to be the corpse of a dead Ghnewa. However, the Tripoli authorities have failed to confirm or deny this.
Unconfirmed social media photos of Ghnewa's corpse
At the time of publishing, it is still unconfirmed that Ghnewa has been killed. The social media photos of his corpse are unconfirmed by the Tripoli government or its official health agencies. In Islam, the usual custom is to bury the dead as soon as possible. But there has been no sign of Ghnewa or his delegation – nor of their corpses.
If they are dead, the government could be delaying the release of their corpses to allow for it to gain full control of the situation and pre-empt and mitigate any possible counterreaction by Ghnewa's supporters, family and tribe. It could be buying time to control the narrative by enforcing a cooling-off period.
Confirmed deaths
The only confirmed deaths by the Recovery Unit of the Corpses Department of the Emergency and Support Medicine Centre (ESMC) were 6 bodies from clash points in the vicinity of Abusleem area. These showed bodies being recovered out of military vehicles around Ghnewa's Abusleem headquarters.
Was it a setup?
An alternative theory is that Ghnewa was set up and walked into a carefully prepared trap. He was presented with options during this meeting that he was bound to reject, spiralling the situation into a shootout. Other viewpoints suggest an attempt was made to arrest Ghnewa at the end of the meeting, which his bodyguards predictably resisted. At least one relative of Ghnewa has posted that the meeting was a trap and that Ghnewa was set up.
Militia leaders and government officials have met with each other tens of times since the 2011 revolution, and it is taken for granted that meetings for negotiations come with guaranteed safe passage.
The Aldabaiba government attempting to own the ''victory''?
The announcement this morning by the Tripoli based and Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba-led Ministry of Defence that the military operation has been successfully completed seems to lend itself to the narrative that there was much preplanning by Aldabaiba and his aligned forces. There have been numerous video clips over the last few days showing a military buildup into Tripoli. So, a clash of some sort was expected, planned for or even intended all along.
Owning the success
On the other hand, the Aldabaiba regime could be attempting to own events that fortuitously went their way. Either way, Aldabaiba is putting a positive spin on events – with the government and its aligned forces coming out of last night's events on top.
Why did the SSA collapse so quickly?
There has been some surprise at how easily and quickly the SSA collapsed. The perception is that it was one of the strongest militias in Tripoli and hence in Libya. It was expected to put up a strong, deadly and destructive fight – at least in its homeland of Abusleem. Large numbers of injured and deaths would be expected.
However, sources in Abusleem and those who visited the area this morning have said that most SSA members had fled or melted into the background. There was no sign of burnt-out vehicles, buildings and spent cartridges – the usual signs of strong clashes. The top echelons have been reported to have either headed to Kikla, their tribal land, or headed to the Tunisian border crossings attempting to escape. Does this mean they saw the end, the writing on the wall?
Another view is that the SSA is now comprised of ''kids'' who were simply jumping on the kudos bandwagon of being in the SSA. They are not battle-hardy and were just born at the 2011 revolution. They view is that the best SSA fighters had died in the Hafter war on Tripoli. A further view is that they were caught completely by surprise. Their vanity did not allow them to think the Tripoli government would have the audacity to attack them at the heart of their power centre: Abusleem.
Will SSA forces make a comeback?
It is for this reason that sources believe that the SSA will not make a comeback under the leadership of the Ghnewa-Kikly clan. Once the warlord figurehead of Abdelghani Ghnewa has gone, the attraction of the powerful leader is no longer there as a pull factor. The news of his possible death seems to have dissolved the SSA – which was overwhelmingly built around Ghnewa's leadership kudos.
Mitiga airport flights to resume
Airlines have announced this morning their intention to return their aircrafts to Mitiga airport and resume flights from there.
It must be pointed out that the Tripoli government did not halt flights or shut down Tripoli's Mitiga airport, but it was the individual airlines who decided to move their aircraft and flights for safety to Misrata airport.
Interior ministry: Situation in the Tripoli is safe and stable
This morning, the Tripoli Ministry of Interior announced that the situation in the Tripoli is safe and stable, and the security services are performing their duty efficiently in maintaining security and public order.
It called on all citizens, especially employees in state institutions, to join their work and contribute to the return of life to normal. It called on all employees of the Ministry to return to their workplaces and adhere to official working hours, in order to ensure the continuity of services and enhance stability.
PM Aldabaiba
Meanwhile, Tripoli Prime Minister Aldabaiba posted: ''I commend the Ministries of Interior and Defence, and all members of the army and police, for their significant accomplishments in establishing security and imposing state authority in the capital.
What has been achieved today confirms that the regular institutions are capable of protecting the nation and preserving the dignity of citizens. It constitutes a decisive step toward eliminating irregular groups (militias) and establishing the principle that there is no place in Libya except for state institutions, and no authority except for the law''.
What happens next?
The Tripoli government's Defence Ministry announced this morning that it is in full control of Ghnewa's Abusleem district. After the dust settles, the question will be: what happens next? Will the Aldabaiba government leave a vacuum that could be exploited by other parties? Or will it fill the ga?. What will happen to the SSA? Will it be disbanded or will it be rebranded with a new name? Will it be merged into the Interior Ministry or into the 444 Brigade?
It must act fast to build on the supposed disassembling of a supposed strong Tripoli militia in favour of accountable state security forces such as the Interior Ministry or the 444 brigade – if it is to strengthen the Libyan state.
More power to Trabelsi and 444?
If indeed this is the end of the SSA, it will clearly strengthen the Interior Ministry and the 444 brigade. The less unaccountable, warlord-led militias exist in Tripoli and Libya, the stronger the Libyan state.
Aldabaiba is stronger?
The results of last night's clashes would also make Aldabaiba stronger. They have consolidated his position before other Tripoli militias and viz-a-viz the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ageela Saleh, and Khalifa Hafter.
Is Kara next?
The ending of the SSA will now direct all focus on the other powerful Tripoli Milita: Abdelraouf Kara's Mitiga based Rada / Special Deterrence Force (SDF). Only with the removal of Kara as its head can a Tripoli government have total control of the capital and move to merge other city's militias into a state security force accountable to the government of the day.
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