Gold-Silver ratio crashes nearly 20% from recent high. Will silver price outshine MCX gold rate this year?

Mint

6 days ago

The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR), a key indicator used to measure the relative strength of silver to gold, has plunged nearly 20% in recent months — from a peak of 107 to around 88 currently — signalling a sharp outperformance of silver compared to gold.
The drop in the ratio is driven by a contrasting trend in prices of the two precious metals. While MCX gold prices have declined nearly 2% in the past one month, silver prices have surged more than 7% over the same period. MCX silver price recently hit a record high of over ₹ 1,15,000 per kg.
'A steep fall in the Gold/Silver Ratio shows silver's significant outperformance, which usually hints at a broader shift in momentum toward risk-on behaviour in metals,' said Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory. 'With abating uncertainties around US tariffs and geopolitical tensions easing, and with a favourable demand-supply outlook, silver is likely to continue outperforming gold this year.'
According to Kedia, the GSR has broken down from its consolidation range of 90–91 on the charts, indicating further downside. He expects the ratio to drop towards 82.74 in the coming months. 'This implies that silver will continue to outperform gold in the near to medium term,' he said.
Technically, resistance for the GSR is now seen at 90.42 and further up at 98.06, while the downside support lies at 82.74.
Echoing a similar sentiment, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, said the nearly 20% crash in the GSR is a strong signal of silver's catch-up move after a period of undervaluation.
'Silver is both a monetary and industrial metal. Its long-term prospects are boosted by the global green energy push, inflation narratives, and a shifting stance by central banks,' he said.
On price outlook, Kedia said that silver faces resistance around the $40 per ounce level, but a breach above could lead it to $42 – $43 levels. For MCX silver, he has set a target of ₹ 1,30,000 per kg for 2025, provided prices sustain above ₹ 1,15,000. In the short term, however, silver prices could see a dip towards ₹ 1,06,000 – ₹ 1,02,000 — levels which he believes offer a good buying opportunity.
Gold prices, on the other hand, may continue to remain under pressure. Kedia expects MCX gold rate to trend lower, ending the year around ₹ 91,000 – 92,000 per 10 grams.
Jigar Trivedi expects silver prices to trade in the range of $38 – $44 per ounce over the next four to six months. On MCX, his near-term forecast pegs silver prices in the ₹ 1,20,000 – ₹ 1,25,000 range, with a bullish long-term outlook.
As industrial demand for silver strengthens — particularly from sectors like solar, EVs, and electronics — the white metal appears well-placed to continue its rally, outperforming its yellow counterpart in the months ahead.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.