China helpless as Middle East war craters regional leverage

Japan Times

2 days ago

China has been able to do little more than stand back and watch as war between its key partner Iran and Israel harms its hard-fought leverage in the Middle East, analysts say.
Beijing has sought to frame itself as a mediator in the region, facilitating a 2023 rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and portraying itself as a more neutral actor in the Israel-Palestinian conflict than its rival the United States.
And its position as the largest purchaser of Iranian oil has served as a crucial lifeline for Tehran as its economy is battered by crippling international sanctions.
But as Israel and Iran engaged in an unprecedented exchange of attacks and the United States struck key targets on Iranian soil in the past week, Beijing has offered little beyond calls for de-escalation.
"Beijing has offered Tehran no real help — just rhetoric that paints China as the principled alternative while it stays safely on the sidelines," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
China, he said, "sticks to rhetoric — condemnations, U.N. statements, talk of 'dialogue' — because over-promising and under-delivering would spotlight its power-projection limits."
"The result is a conspicuously thin response that underscores how little real heft China brings to Iran when the shooting starts."
'Strategic' friendship
China — alongside its "no limits" partner Russia — has long been a key backer of Iran, deepening ties in the wake of the United States' withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal in 2018.
Chinese President Xi Jinping described relations as "strategic" in a 2023 meeting with Iran's then-president Ebrahim Raisi, and backed Tehran in its fight against "bullying."
Liu Qiang, a retired Chinese senior colonel, was even more explicit in an article on the academic website Aisixiang this month.
"Iran's survival is a matter of China's national security," said the director of the Academic Committee of the Shanghai International Center for Strategic Studies.
Beijing, he insisted, must take "proactive measures" in light of the recent war to ensure that Tehran "will not be broken by the military conflict" or "jointly strangled by the U.S. and Israel."
Analysts say Beijing's ties with Tehran are central to its efforts to ensure a regional counterbalance against both the United States and Israel as well as the Gulf States.
"Iran fits into Beijing's broader campaign to counterbalance U.S.-led hegemony and to a lesser extent NATO encroachment," said Tuvia Gering, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.
Those efforts have gone into overdrive following blows to other "Axis of resistance" players since the start of the Gaza war — the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad's rule in Syria and the degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah in fighting with Israel.
"Beijing has sought to prevent a total unraveling of Iran's regional role," Gering said, pointing to Chinese efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal.
'Little leverage'
China has condemned recent U.S. strikes on Iran and called for parties in the region, "especially Israel," to de-escalate.
And it has called for a political solution to help a declared ceasefire hold.
Fighting last month between India and Pakistan saw Beijing furnish its long-time allies in Islamabad with state-of-the-art military gear.
Analysts don't expect China to extend the same courtesy to its comrades in Tehran, given the risk of direct confrontation with the United States.
"Iran needs more than statements at the U.N. or missile components," said Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter.
"It needs air defenses and fighter jets, which are things that China could provide but would require much time to be put into use — not to mention the likely extremely negative reaction by Israel and, especially now that is directly involved, the U.S.," he added.
The United States has urged China to use its influence on Iran to help deter its leaders from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas.
But Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program, was skeptical that Beijing has the leverage.
"China's position in the Middle East after this conflict" has been badly affected, he said.
"Everybody in the Middle East understands that China has little leverage, if any, to play any role in de-escalation."