Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh prediction, pick, start time for UFC Fight Night 254
Last event: 2-3
UFC main cards, 2025: 19-16-1
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh UFC Fight Night 254 preview
Hernandez (15-8 MMA, 7-7 UFC) will attempt to remain above .500 in his UFC tenure with a second straight victory. Hernandez enters his first fight of the year on the heels of a split decision win over Austin Hubbard in October. The result snapped a two-fight skid of decisions to Damon Jackson and Bill Algeo. … 'The Ultimate Fighter 31' winner Holobaugh (21-8 MMA, 2-5 UFC) continues his third UFC stint, looking to score back-to-back wins. In his previous outing, Holobaugh picked up a unanimous decision win over Kaynan Kruschewsky in July.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh UFC Fight Night 254 expert pick, prediction
Serving as a solid action fight at 155 pounds is a showdown between former featherweights, Hernandez and Holobaugh.
Despite coming into this fight with a slight lean toward Hernandez, I ended up on the Holobaugh side after watching back the tape.
Holobaugh may be older with less explosivity than his counterpart, but the Louisiana native has a deceptive amount of experience and skills under his belt.
Nasty transitional work by Kurt Holobaugh, using the crossface during the get up to land a body knee and an elbow to the head. pic.twitter.com/fUlUBSjVMF
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) March 13, 2025
More importantly, Holobaugh is a high-paced, in-your-face action fighter, which is a style that I suspect Hernandez struggles with. Hernandez has faced grinding fighters before, but those fighters lacked the skills, dimensions and durability that Holobaugh brings to the table.
Unless Hernandez can surprise Holobaugh with something out of the gate early, then he'll likely have to revert his style to a wrestling-heavy approach if he means to neutralize Holobaugh (something we haven't seen Hernandez do since his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier seven years ago).
A competitive dogfight to a decision is the most likely outcome, but I'll go ahead and take a flier on Holobaugh to overwhelm Hernandez en route to a standing stoppage in Round 2.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh UFC Fight Night 254 odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Hernandez -220 and Holbaugh +176 via FanDuel.
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh UFC Fight Night 254 start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Hernandez and Holobaugh are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 8:40 p.m. ET. The fight will stream on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC Fight Night 254.
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