Astros takeaways: Houston's pitching problem, Jon Singleton's role, draft pick breaks a streak

New York Times

6 days ago

HOUSTON — Reaching a round number often prompts reflection, so as the Houston Astros approach their 100th game Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, it seems pertinent to remember their Opening Day lineup against the New York Mets:
Jose Altuve LF
Isaac Paredes 3B
Yordan Alvarez DH
Christian Walker 1B
Yainer Diaz C
Jeremy Peña SS
Cam Smith RF
Brendan Rodgers 2B
Jake Meyers CF
Advertisement
Five of those nine players now reside on the injured list. None has a concrete timeline for a return, making what transpired this weekend at T-Mobile Park somewhat predictable. The Seattle Mariners took a series from this skeleton crew and cut Houston's lead in the American League West to four games.
How it happened, however, runs counter to the convenient narrative. Houston's lineup might be a shell of itself, but it is somehow still producing. The Astros scored 18 runs and struck 29 hits in three games against a Mariners pitching staff that has long given fits to Houston's full-strength lineup.
Sunday Funday, indeed. 😌
Astros lead 9-3 pic.twitter.com/2QWB9So31k
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 20, 2025
Isaac Paredes' strained right hamstring Saturday night should've supplied a death knell to a lineup that can no longer absorb such an avalanche of injuries. It responded by scoring 11 unanswered runs Sunday in a game started by Mariners All-Star right-hander Bryan Woo.
Yordan Alvarez last appeared in a game May 2. In the 67 games since, the Astros are averaging 4.67 runs. Since Jeremy Peña fractured his rib June 27, the number is 5.30 runs per game, though it is buoyed by an 18-run outburst at Dodger Stadium on July 4 and Sunday's 11-run showing in Seattle.
Take out those two games, and Houston's Peña-less lineup is still scoring 4.13 runs per game. League average is 4.39, but given the Astros' prolific run prevention, scoring a shade below with such an injury-ravaged lineup should still suffice.
Therein lies the problem. Houston's run prevention machine has broken down in July, putting undue pressure on a lineup that is ill-equipped to carry an entire team. Only 10 pitching staffs have a higher ERA this month than the Astros' 4.52 mark.
Houston's starters have a 5.42 ERA in July. Only five rotations awoke Sunday with a higher one this month. A series of truncated starts from Hunter Brown and Lance McCullers Jr. have forced the Astros' bullpen to throw 59 1/3 innings in July.
Advertisement
Just four bullpens entered Sunday with a heavier workload this month. That the Astros start the second half with 13 consecutive games will only exacerbate a problem this club must correct.
Whether that comes via the bevy of injured pitchers on rehab assignments or with an external addition at the trade deadline remains a mystery. That this substitute-laden lineup continues to produce — and will welcome back many of its internal reinforcements before October — might help to clear it up.
Paredes' injury initiated it, but the Astros made their roster more functional Sunday morning, summoning left-handed slugger Jon Singleton in place of their seldom-used third catcher, César Salazar.
Salazar had been on Houston's 26-man roster since May 5, a span of 65 games during which he never received a start. Salazar took seven plate appearances, all of which came in games the Astros either led or trailed by at least eight runs.
Pitching a scoreless inning against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 29 is perhaps Salazar's most memorable contribution during his two-month stint in the majors. He served as nothing more than an insurance policy, providing manager Joe Espada freedom to play Victor Caratini alongside Yainer Diaz without fear he'd be short-handed if either backstop got hurt.
The setup is acceptable when a team is 20 games over .500 or enjoying an ample lead atop its division. Neither is Houston's current reality, forcing change while creating curiosity for how Espada will manage this new roster construction. Sunday, during his appearance on the team's pregame radio show, general manager Dana Brown said, 'We're trying to buy some offense from wherever we can get it at this point.'
Singleton is a left-handed hitter who can play only first base or serve as the designated hitter. Caratini is a switch hitter with better numbers hitting right-handed this season, making him a natural platoon partner with Singleton, should Espada choose that route.
Precedent, though, suggests Caratini could play a more prominent role. That he hit third Sunday — albeit in an extremely short-handed lineup — demonstrates how valuable Espada and his coaching staff believe Caratini is. He then collected three hits, raising his OPS to .768.
Caratini drives in a pair!#BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/FbXgxxooZl
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 20, 2025
Caratini awoke Sunday with a 109 OPS+ across his first 247 plate appearances. Among the Astros' remaining healthy position players, only Jose Altuve has a higher one.
Given that success, it's difficult to envision Espada cutting Caratini's playing time, be it at first base, designated hitter or catcher. Neither Diaz nor Walker has authored the sort of offensive turnaround to warrant everyday playing time, but Walker's defense will be crucial in the absence of Paredes and Peña in the infield.
Advertisement
Perhaps, then, Singleton will function just as a bench bat reserved for facing a high-leverage right-handed reliever.
Given Diaz's continued offensive struggles, though, it's worth wondering whether a more even split of catching duties could be another way to get Caratini and Singleton in the lineup, providing balance this ballclub has needed all season.
The drive from Delaware to Chicago is a 12-hour adventure spread across 800 miles. This spring, Jase Mitchell made the journey alongside his father for a pre-MLB Draft workout with the Astros, a franchise known for finding prospects from peculiar places.
No high school player from Delaware had been selected within the first 10 rounds of the draft since 2012. Mitchell, a native of Milton, Del., sought to break the streak. He impressed Astros scouts during the on-field portion of his workout.
Afterward, Astros West Coast regional cross-checker Jamie Lehman mentioned how valuable it is for the organization's catchers to know Spanish. The thought hadn't entered Mitchell's mind, but he made it his mission to become bilingual.
'He shows up at the combine three weeks later, and he already has a Duolingo streak going,' Astros amateur scouting director Cam Pendino said last week during an appearance on 'Crush City Territory.'
Pendino and his staff selected Mitchell in the seventh round of last week's draft, offering another chance for a player to put an overlooked place on the map. Mitchell will forgo his commitment to the University of Kentucky and sign with Houston for a bonus over the $267,700 slot value his pick holds.
Zack Gelof is the only major leaguer from Mitchell's high school, Cape Henlopen High in Lewes, Del. The state has produced just 20 drafted big leaguers, including current Astros starter Brandon Walter.
Mitchell, who hits left-handed and throws right-handed, stands at 6-foot-3 and is listed at 200 pounds. He has hit with Jackson Merrill and Yandy Díaz in past offseasons and has a previous relationship with Astros director of hitting Dan Hennigan. In Keith Law's AL West draft report card for The Athletic, he wrote that Mitchell has 'above-average power and a swing that pulls the ball in the air, with projection left to his frame and the potential at least to stick behind the plate. His hit tool is behind the rest of his game.'
Advertisement
'Geographically, Delaware and high school catchers, you study the base rates of the draft, and that's not a frequently mentioned combination there,' Pendino said. 'To be candid, on the surface, that sort of profile is scary. At the same time, we did a ton of homework with Jase and are super convicted in the entire package that we're getting.
'Normally, I would be hesitant about a high school catcher, but we think he has the overall components both tangibly and intangibly. We think he checks all those boxes.'
(Photo of Hunter Brown: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)