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Crisis-driven rally? Bitcoin and Gold soar as inflation looms and political heat rises

Crisis-driven rally? Bitcoin and Gold soar as inflation looms and political heat rises

Economic Times6 days ago
Bitcoin Hits a New High Amid Market Jitters
Gold Joins Bitcoin in Safe-Haven Surge
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Bitcoin Recovers Quickly After Brief Dip on CPI Release
Altcoins Join Bitcoin in Broad-Based Crypto Rally
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As the United States grapples with mounting debt and inflation concerns, investors are flocking to assets that have served as safe havens in uncertain times, Bitcoin and gold, as per a report.This week, Bitcoin surged past $123,000, climbing more than $10,000 in just a few days and hitting a new all-time high, as reported by GuruFocus. It's already up 14% for July, driven by growing anxiety over the US economy and the government's ballooning fiscal deficit, according to the report. A $316 billion shortfall in May has rekindled fears over long-term sustainability, prompting many to seek safety outside of traditional markets, according to the GuruFocus report.According to trading expert Keith Alan, the price action fits a textbook "Cup and Handle" pattern, a signal of continued momentum, as per GuruFocus. But beyond technicals, it's deeper economic worries that seem to be driving the move, concerns over increased Treasury issuance, a wavering US dollar, and rising calls for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to step down, according to the report.ALSO READ: Stock rally sparks bold words from trading legend — his unexpected take is going viral Alongside Bitcoin, gold is also gaining ground as a safe-haven asset, with both markets reacting to a tense mix of political pressure, inflation jitters, and monetary uncertainty, as per GuruFocus.Inflation data released this week didn't ease any of those concerns, as the Consumer Price Index for June showed a 2.7% increase year over year, which is slightly higher than May's 2.4%, as per the AInvest report. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.9%, according to the report.The crypto market wobbled just before the inflation report came, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $116,000, as per AInvest. But it quickly bounced back, climbing past $118,000 once the numbers were out, with traders still betting on a potential rate cut in September, but the next round of data, specifically the Producer Price Index, could either reinforce or upend those expectations, according to the AInvest report.ALSO READ: No Reddit, no visa? Indian's US entry blocked after failing to share account details While Bitcoin was not the only cryptocurrency moving higher, even Ethereum rose over 6% in the past 24 hours, XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Solana, and Dogecoin also saw gains, as reported by AInvest. XRP increased 3%, BNB by 2.4%, and both Solana and Dogecoin gained 5%, according to the report.Because people are nervous about inflation, debt, and political turmoil—and Bitcoin is seen as a safe place to park money during uncertainty, as per the GuruFocus report.Gold, like Bitcoin, is considered a hedge during times of inflation or market instability.
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Ray Dalio on Donald Trump vs Jerome Powell: ‘Argument about value of money…' What do market and economic indicators say?
Ray Dalio on Donald Trump vs Jerome Powell: ‘Argument about value of money…' What do market and economic indicators say?

Mint

time27 minutes ago

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Ray Dalio on Donald Trump vs Jerome Powell: ‘Argument about value of money…' What do market and economic indicators say?

Billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has chipped in on the very public feud between United States President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), titled 'Defending the Value of Money', Ray Dalio outlined his belief that the bone of contention between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell comes down to differences in philosophy over the value of money. In his detailed article on X, Ray Dalio stated, 'The argument between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell is about the value of money.' On the key point of contention, he explained, '… When there is too much debt and borrowing, the classic way of dealing with it is to push real interest rates down and devalue money, which is bad for creditors and good for debtors. That is what Donald Trump is pushing for and what Jerome Powell is defending against.' Ray Dalio acknowleged that while such arguments are 'normal', the disagreement between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell is 'more intense'. 'Heads of state normally want to have more stimulation to boost spending on financial markets, goods, and services, which makes people happy, until there is so much inflation that even they agree that money should be tighter, while good central bankers try to get the balance right between being too easy and being too tight, looking at indicators of which way things are leaning to 'lean against the wind.' So, there is a natural tension between central bank leaders and those in office who want to make people happy and get re-elected. In normal times, there is a recognition of and respect for the separation of these powers, but in extreme cases, this separation of powers breaks down,' he added. Dalio also sough to answer what monetary policy should do; noting that taking a cue from the market and economic indicators, besides others influences is important. He added that at present, the market indicators 'are clearly saying that money is now easy and that the economy is not in trouble', noting that when stocks go up, the value of money goes down, credit spreads are narrow, and real yields are low, that 'reflects money being easy'. Ray Dalio listed the following market indicators that the US central bank and elected officials can keep in mind: Over the last year, the US stock market was up 14 per cent, is now at its all-time highs, and by most measures is expensive. Over the last year, the dollar was down 5 per cent against a basket of other major currencies, down 27 per cent against gold, and down 45 per cent against Bitcoin. Credit spreads are trading near historically tight levels. For example, BAA-rated corporate spreads are now trading around 1 per cent above Treasuries. Real interest rates are relatively moderate and normal at a bit over 2 per cent at the 10-year level. On the economic indicators, Ray Dalio stated that 'they show that the economy as a whole is in relatively good balance with a slight slowing'. Listing the following to take note of: The unemployment rate is at a relatively low 4.1 per cent and slowly trending higher. Tech, especially investments and revenues in artificial intelligence (AI), is booming while sentiment and real estate are weak. The global economy is relatively weak. 'That is how things currently look. Regarding the future, there are great uncertainties and risks related to the debt and trade issues, politics, and geopolitics that all have an inflationary bias, while at the same time there are great technological advances that are deflationary and will tend to increase wealth gaps,' he added. While not explicitly taking a side, Ray Dalio did indicate he leaned more toward Jerome Powell's line of thinking, noting: 'it is not easy, but important to defend the value of money'. He added, 'Defending monetary discipline, like defending fiscal discipline, isn't a popular thing to do because it is de facto telling people that they need to have financial discipline. Yet getting the balance right is critical because one man's debts are another man's assets, and to be successful, money has to be a good storehold of wealth (as well as an effective medium of exchange).' Ray Dalio however opined that 'judging from the lessons of history and current readings', it seemed 'clear' that the value of money won't be defended. He added, 'The value of money won't be defended until the classic weak money / inflation problems become intense — and perhaps not even then — because the pains those problems produce are intense.' 'Look at the 1970-82 cycle for a classic example. While maybe that tightening will happen sometime in the distant future, it's virtually certain that it won't come soon. So, it seems to me that one should keep betting on weak money (i.e., the dollar going down, and low and falling real interest rates),' he ended.

Altseason in 2025: Meaning, trends, key altcoins to keep an eye on
Altseason in 2025: Meaning, trends, key altcoins to keep an eye on

Business Standard

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Altseason in 2025: Meaning, trends, key altcoins to keep an eye on

The cryptocurrency market is showing strong signs of entering Altseason, a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, begin to outperform Bitcoin in both price performance and trading activity. This shift is catching the attention of traders and investors, many of whom are now rotating capital into altcoins in anticipation of broader market gains. So why is this happening now? One of the key signals is the drop in Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation. This metric has recently fallen below 60 per cent, indicating that more money is flowing into altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, several altcoins are already gaining momentum. Solana is holding firmly above the $200 mark, reaching its highest level in five months. At the same time, Ethereum is seeing a surge in derivatives activity, with futures open interest rising from $18 billion to $28 billion in just one week. These developments, analysts said, have pushed the Altcoin Season Index above 50 for the first time since December of last year. An index reading above 50 suggests that altcoins are beginning to outpace Bitcoin. This shift in market dynamics, Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, said, suggests that the crypto markets may be entering a promising Altseason soon. But what exactly is 'Altseason,' and what should investors expect from it? What are Altcoins? Altcoins, which is a shorter form of 'alternative coins', refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, including a wide range of digital assets with different functions and technologies. Some of the popular altcoins include Ethereum, Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano. Altcoins are often used in blockchain applications, ecosystems, and platforms. What is Altseason? Altcoin Season (Altseason) is a period in the crypto market when altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin in terms of price growth and returns. Altseason, analysts suggest, typically follows a pattern in the crypto market's 4-year cycle — starting with Bitcoin, then large-cap tokens like ETH and Solana, and finally spreading to smaller altcoins. It is usually marked by high trading volumes, increased interest in new blockchain projects, and rising social media buzz. Altseason, analysts said, often reflects broader market optimism. However, it can also be highly volatile and short-lived. What do analysts expect from the Altseason? As retail participation grows, Patel expects fresh capital to flow into altcoins, especially those with strong real-world utility and active communities. Currently, the 'Altcoin Index,' which tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins, is at 50. "This indicates that there is still room for further growth. That said, investors should always do their own research and approach the market with a long-term mindset to truly benefit from the upcoming cycle," said Patel. Paras Malhotra, SVP - trade, custody, and business operations at CoinDCX, on the other hand, expects sectors with strong narratives like AI, DeFi, or Layer-2 projects to attract massive gains, given that many altcoins are reporting a strong breakout above pivotal resistance. "One can also expect an increase in on-chain activity, such as wallet growth and token transfers, along with a surge in trading volume and sentiment across mid and low-cap projects," said Malhotra. Top altcoins to watch Investors, analysts suggest, should focus on altcoins with a strong track record and real use cases, like Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and a few others. Notably, Ethereum's futures open interest jumped from $18 billion to $28 billion in just one week, showing rising investor confidence. Meanwhile, Solana also saw a 9 per cent increase in daily active addresses in just one day, highlighting growing user activity. "Keeping an eye on such on-chain data can help investors spot strong projects," said Patel. Malhotra also expects that altcoins with strong fundamentals will gain significant traction during the upcoming Altseason, with projects like Solana, Avalanche, and Hype being the main focus. "Besides Layer-1, DeFi, AI, and gaming tokens could also see a good spike."

Michael Saylor's Strategy owns 3% of Bitcoin in circulation after latest purchase
Michael Saylor's Strategy owns 3% of Bitcoin in circulation after latest purchase

Economic Times

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Michael Saylor's Strategy owns 3% of Bitcoin in circulation after latest purchase

Michael Saylor's Strategy now owns more than 3% of all the Bitcoin ever minted following the crypto treasury company's latest purchase of the original cryptocurrency. ADVERTISEMENT The former MicroStrategy Inc. acquired 6,220 Bitcoin for $739.8 million during the seven days ended July 20, according to a filing Monday with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This raised the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based firm's holdings to 607,770 Bitcoin — which is about 3.05% of the roughly 19.9 million token issued. The stack is worth about $72 billion. Strategy has been using a combination of common and preferred shares, as well as debt, to fund Bitcoin purchases since it began accumulating the cryptocurrency in late 2020 as a hedge against inflation. Dozens of companies have begun to emulate the practice. Strategy is the world's leading corporate owner of Bitcoin. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) holds about $86 billion in assets. While some other tokens' unlimited supply has concerned investors, Bitcoin's store of value proposition has been buoyed by the 21 million limit on the number of tokens to be mined. Instructions in the network's original code have further helped to promote the scarcity value of the token — like quadrennial halving events that automatically slash the amount of token rewards miners earn. The last Bitcoin is expected to be issued in the year 2140. Strategy said separately Monday that it planned to offer 5 million of variable-rate Series A perpetual Stretch preferred stock to help finance additional Bitcoin purchases. It is the fourth series of preferred shares by the company. The common shares of Strategy has surged more than 3,500% since Saylor - a founder and executive chairman of the company - began buying Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has risen about 1,100% during the same period, while S&P 500 has increased around 120%. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)

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