No major uptick in housing supply this year or next, ESRI warns
Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
has told and Oireachtas committee.
Officials from the ESRI, appearing before the committee on budgetary oversight on Tuesday, said a tight labour force in the sector and low productivity levels – particularly among small and domestic-owned construction firms – mean the outlook for housing remains bleak.
Conor O'Toole, associate research professor with the ESRI, said these factors, coupled with the out-turn for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, mean the group does 'not foresee any major uptick in 2025 and 2026 in housing supply'.
He said the ESRI is currently forecasting 33,000 units in 2025 and 37,000 units in 2026, which would be well below Government targets of 41,000 this year and 43,000 next year. Furthermore, Mr O'Toole added most of the risks 'weigh on the downside'.
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On energy, Mr O'Toole pointed out that while prices have declined since outset of the war in Ukraine, Irish prices 'remain at high levels'.
'Prices for electricity in particular have not yet declined to the same extent as other EU countries,' he said.
'It is challenging to confidently identify the reasons for this, but prices are still largely driven by gas prices, and Ireland has not diversified away from using gas to generate electricity to the same extent as other EU countries.'
The ESRI has revised its growth forecast downwards due to international developments, he said. Its forecast for growth in modified domestic demand (MDD) was 3 per cent in its Spring Quarterly Economic Commentary, but this is now 2.3 per cent.
For 2026, the ESRI has adopted a 'technical assumption' that tariffs settle at moderate levels, in line with the IMF forecasts. This would lead to a possible growth rate in MDD of 2.8 per cent.
Under the 10 per cent tariff scenario, the results show a negative impact on Irish GDP of up to 2 per cent and on MDD of 1.5 per cent over a period of five to seven years.
Under a more severe 25 per cent tariff scenario, the negative impact on GDP is 3.5 per cent, while MDD is projected to decline by 3 per cent.
Mr O'Toole said that while Ireland has limited direct influence over EU-US trade policy, there is a need for 'strong domestic policy responses'.
On the 'outsized contribution' of corporate tax revenues, he warned recent government surpluses 'would have been substantial deficits' without windfall corporation tax revenues that are concentrated in a small number of taxpayers.
'While the establishment of the investment funds is extremely welcome, increasing the level of throughput from windfall payments to the funds would be advisable,' he added.
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Irish Times
37 minutes ago
- Irish Times
Letters to the Editor, July16th: On children in direct provision, EV charging and swimming safely
Sir, – Through the work of our organisations, we see the experiences of children, young people and their families in communities all across Ireland. We hear of the hardship and the daily struggles families are facing just to get by each week. This is particularly apparent when it comes to children and families living in direct provision. In recent weeks, the media has been full of talk and promises to address child poverty in the upcoming budget and yet these children, who are among the most at risk of poverty in the country, have been waiting far too long for these promises to be fulfilled. Funds for a child-specific income support for those living in international protection were secured in both Budgets 2024 and 2025, but still – nothing has come to fruition. Currently, children and young people living in the international protection system receive just €29.80 per week. Despite significant increases in the cost of living, this has remained unchanged since 2019. In February 2021 the Government committed to introduce an 'additional monthly payment per child in the form of an International Protection Child Payment' in their White Paper to end direct provision. READ MORE The payment was due to be made available in 2022. With Budget 2024 and Budget 2025 allocating €4.7 million and €8.4 million respectively to deliver this payment, children and young people are still waiting for this to happen. Children living in direct provision are the only group of children in the country to see zero increase in supports through successive budgets. Without any means to tackle the increased cost of living, these children are more likely to get pulled into poverty which affects all aspects of their life, from their health and nutrition to their social and emotional development. This is simply not good enough and in a country as wealthy as Ireland, there is no excuse. The investment is there; we now need to see implementation of the International Protection Child Payment as a matter of urgency. We cannot expect children and families to be able to maintain a decent standard of living with less than €30 a week. Even basic essentials are often miles out of reach. These are children and young people growing up in accommodation with no cooking facilities and without adequate income support, we hear of children eating cold meals or carbohydrate-heavy food for months on end. We are even aware of an instance where a young child ate sugar straight from the bag as a desperate means to keep hunger cravings at bay. Young people in direct provision have expressed how a lack of income means they have few opportunities to take part in activities with their friends and peers after school. The financial cost of school trips, after-school activities such as sport or dance class, or even just going out with friends are mere fantasies, creating major barriers for them to integrate or participate in their local communities. We have heard no good reason as to why this vital income support has not been implemented, because there is none. We cannot face into a third budget cycle with no progress made at all on measures we should already see in train. The current programme for government states that the Government will 'set an ambitious child poverty target ensuring a focus on inequality'. If they are to truly realise this commitment, we must see real action to lift all children and young people in direct provision out of poverty. We urge the Government to act immediately on this by providing an adequate child payment for those in direct provision with the funding secured in Budgets 2024 and 2025. – Yours, etc, TANYA WARD, Chief executive, Children's Rights Alliance, SUZANNE CONNOLLY, Chief executive, Barnardos, TERESA HEENEY, CEO, Early Childhood Ireland, NICK HENDERSON, CEO, Irish Refugee Council, MARY CUNNINGHAM, CEO, National Youth Council of Ireland, LOUISE BAYLISS, Head of Social Justice and Policy, Society of St Vincent de Paul, (And 13 others) Dublin. Portiuncula hospital Sir, – The decision by the HSE on the future operations at the Portiuncula Maternity Hospital, Ballinasloe, Co Galway puzzle me ('M aternity services across Ireland should be reviewed, expert group urges following Portiuncula report ,' July 9th). Would it not have been better to remove from the hospital the dangers to the patients rather than the patients? – Yours, etc, GERALDINE GREGAN, Clarecastle, Co Clare. Culture and exclusivity Sir, – I was taken aback by the headline ' Forget bonfires, Croke Park is where our culture is this weekend, ' (July 14th). What I found most disturbing was the use of the word 'our' and its exclusivity as regards culture on this island. It is absolutely true that Moygashel was a disgrace. However, in general, Orange Order parades go off peacefully, if somewhat noisily at times. The Orange Order and its general secretary, Mervyn Gibson, have done a lot of good work in this regard in recent years as have people in west Belfast in relation to transferring energies into féile an phobail events. In 2018 I attended the Belfast 12th of July parade as part of an official Irish government delegation, led by then minister for tourism and sport Brendan Griffin. Before the parade we had a meeting in the Grand Central Hotel with members of the Orange Order which was friendly and informative. Indeed, during the parade it stopped where we were standing and the grand marshall and others came over to welcome us and shake our hands. Surely, if we are to have reconciliation on this island we need to embrace cultures other than the very important, but not exclusive, 'Gaelic' culture and here I refer to the 'tribe' and not the game. Because the headline would indicate that there is one legitimate culture on this island which is the sole repository of 'our' culture. Moygashel and other excesses, appalling as they may be, should not be taken as a reason to reject the loyalist/unionist culture as a legitimate and equal culture on this island. I say this as someone who is a strong believer in Irish unity and a lifelong GAA member. Indeed, the validation of different cultures is a pre-requisite to unity. I believe the headline betrays a somewhat partitionist mentality which has been gaining currency in the Republic where we are defining ourselves in increasingly separatist terms. Here, I must acknowledge the outstanding and vital research being conducted by ARINS, led by Prof Brendan O'Leary and supported by The Irish Times in relation to North/South issues, often without sufficient recognition. Also, I am sure Malachy Clerkin, a journalist whom I admire greatly, was not being perniciously exclusive. But separation rather than unity is a creeping trend. – Yours, etc, JIM D'ARCY, Blackrock, Co Louth. Up Meath, and Donegal Sir, – Instilled with a pride for Meath football from a very early age (by a very proud Meath woman, my mother), I reflected upon the scoreline from the semi-final on Sunday. While it may have been far from the desired outcome on the day, but at a time where sad news, bad news, and global uncertainty can dominate the world headlines, this Meath team gave us something to focus on, lifting the spirits of the county, creating great banter with our neighbours, and a few great trips to Croke Park over the summer! It reignited many happy childhood memories, of Sunday afternoons over great summers. Our household, and my loyal friend Catherine, cheering for the greats such as Martin O'Connell, Robbie O'Malley, David Beggy, Graham Geraghty, Liam Hayes, Trevor Giles to name only a few, and when Ollie Murphy got that ball, we knew great scores were ahead! I will always remember the excitement when Liam Hayes brought the Sam Maguire to our school in Westmeath (thanks to his sister, who was our amazing English teacher). The excitement and passion in her eyes on sharing the experience was so energising. Meath have a fantastic up and coming team and I look forward to the future experiences that they will lead us through. Donegal played a great game on Sunday. Their supporters were brilliant craic, and on Sunday it was their turn to have the excitement in their eyes. Wishing them the very, very best to take it all the way in the All-Ireland. In the meanwhile, I'll proudly display my Meath flag, for another while. Up Meath! – Yours, etc, ISOBEL HARRIS, Mullingar, Co Westmeath. Sir, – Please allow me a few personal thoughts on last Sunday's semi-final between Donegal and Meath. I watched in awe our wonderful Donegal boys play with such brilliance and passion, that my heart near stopped and a few tears appeared. I'm going to put myself out there, and say, with the greatest of respect to Kerry: No team could possibly beat such brilliance and passion. So be it. – Yours, etc, BRIAN McDEVITT, Glenties, Co Donegal. Charging your vehicles at home Sir, – I totally agree with the selection of reader responses regarding the challenges of public charging of EVs. It is not good enough and a lot of public charging doesn't fit the profile of its users. However, I think it would have been good to get the perspective of somebody with a driveway and a home charger. For these people, EVs are a brilliant idea. A fuel pump in your driveway that fills the car overnight at cheap prices? Sign me up. Well, I did sign up 3½ years ago, and my average annual fuel bill is about ¤150 for 15,000km. And I have never had to wait for a public charger because less than 10 per cent of my charging is done publicly, generally on holidays. There are a lot of petrol and diesel cars sitting in driveways this morning that could just as easily be EVs with home charging at no inconvenience to their drivers. – Yours, etc, CHRIS CUMMINS, Sandyford, Dublin 18. City centre and apartment living Sir, – Richard Allen (Letters, July 15th) notes that despite long campaigning for the desirability of apartments, former Irish Times environment editor, Frank McDonald, has now 'changed his mind' and decided to move to the suburbs, perhaps missing the fact that Mr McDonald has moved from one apartment to another. Mr McDonald explained his move was due to several factors including the Government's failure to protect city centre apartment dwellers with appropriate 'European style' noise control legislation. Those of us agreeing with Mr McDonald, that apartments are desirable, environmentally friendly and suitable for many Irish people, are dismayed to find the Government once again lowering apartment standards rather than introducing a coherent planning and regulatory framework to support apartment and city centre living. The focus should be on giving people the option to live in the city centre, rather than the option to move out. – Yours, etc, STEPHEN WALL, Rialto, Dublin 8. Sir, – May I correct Frank McDonald when he refers to the Meeting House in Eustace Street as a Presbyterian Meeting House (' Why I moved out of Temple Bar after 25 years: I feared our home would become uninhabitable, ' July 12th)? It was in fact a Quaker Meeting House (Society of Friends) Meeting House. With respect. – Yours, etc, HELEN BAILY, Dublin. Swimming safety and rip currents Sir, – Too many of our young people especially are drowning in our seas and rivers on an all too regular basis, often caused by rip currents. Many of these tragedies are completely avoidable, even for non-swimmers. People tend to panic when they encounter a rip current and assume you must try to swim ashore to survive it, however the current will only pull you offshore, exhaustion sets in and, too often, tragedy strikes. What one actually needs to do to survive a rip current is to swim parallel to the shore (or wade if possible) until you are free of the rip, only then should you swim or wade ashore. Why aren't there more visible preventative guidelines on rip currents available from Water Safety Ireland? Guidelines on signs at beaches? Maybe a summer television ad demonstrating what to do if one encounters a rip current, for example? Information confined to an authority's website is not going to have the same reach. Let's not lose any more people unnecessarily to our waters. – Yours, etc, ANNETTE CANTWELL, Perrystown, Dublin 12. Continuing woes of letter writers Sir, – I've been writing letters to The Irish Times for years, mainly criticising Ireland's role as an international tax haven. You think you notice patterns over the years (very subjective this). I used to have a hit rate of one in three letters being published. A few years ago I wrote strident letters (unpublished) criticising having Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe reviewing books on economics. My hit rate fell to one in five around then and has stayed like that until recently. To my surprise my letter critical of Paschal Donohoe's reviews was published a couple of months ago. This is my 14th letter since and none have been published. Is this a record? – Yours, etc, PAUL CONNOLLY, Cavan. Sir, – Until recently, in the Letters page, you regularly printed an advisory to letter writers that it is possible to find space for only a small selection of the many letters received. In doing so, you yourself used up valuable space. Lately, you've taken to publishing letters by letter writers about letter writers, often themselves, whose letters have not been published. Words fail me. – Yours, etc, MICHAEL KEEGAN, Booterstown, Co Dublin. Sir, – If you think it's difficult to get a letter printed in the Irish Times (Rejection is cruel, but rejection by..., Letters, July 15th), you should try The Guardian! – Yours, etc, BILL REDMOND, Edinburgh Scotland. Sir, – 'A rejection may spoil your breakfast but you shouldn't let it spoil your lunch,' to paraphrase Kingsley Amis. – Yours, etc, ANNE MARIE KENNEDY, Co Galway.
Irish Examiner
an hour ago
- Irish Examiner
Irish Examiner view: People in poverty are left behind
For a country that dragged itself out of poverty to wealth, we have certainly left a lot of people behind. St Vincent de Paul, at the coalface of citizens' attempts to keep up, not with the neighbours, but with the bare essentials, has called for a €16-a-week welfare increase to keep pace with the cost of living. And that's just the core rate, and not including other allowances that are vital to many people's survival. The core rate increase amounts to just over €830 a year — and frankly, one wonders if that's even enough, given the rates of inflation in recent years and the global uncertainty that a US-EU trade war might bring, not to mention the ever-present threat or reality of homelessness for far too many of our fellow citizens. The charity expects to get 250,000 calls this year. Let us recall that the population of the island is about 5.2m. SvP's head of social policy, Louise Bayliss, described it as 'policy failure', given this country's wealth. With the Government ruling out one-off measures to deal with the cost of living, urgency turns to how we can protect our most vulnerable people. One wonders how countries with similar populations that follow the Nordic model, such as Denmark and Finland, can seemingly deliver better outcomes for the people there than Ireland, which has a bigger GDP? The sad reality is that our problems are generally within our capability to solve, yet show no signs of abating even in the medium term. And that's a reality we should all sit with and contemplate — after all, how many of us are one lost job or one missed payment away from serious trouble? Times change, and relevance fades Cork city councillor Terry Shannon has objected to a process to rename Cork's Bishop Lucey Park, saying that Ireland is now 'a cold place' for Catholics. But is it? There is merit, certainly, in retaining elements of history, given how they inform our overall identity, as explored by Sarah Harte on these pages and in Monday's editorial. However, times do change, whether people like it or not, and what may be a touchstone for a previous generation may not have the same resonance for the current. The idea of wanting to rename areas associated with religious figures, given the numerous sexual abuse scandals involving the Church, as well as its historic role in oppressing women and children via mother and baby homes or industrial schools, seems quite reasonable. Let us remember that this is a vote simply to begin a process: The destination has yet to be reached. The suggestion of renaming the park isn't new, and can be found at least as far back as the aftermath of the commission into mother and baby homes in 2020. Although Cornelius Lucey — an opponent of contraception and a believer that the Church was right in everything including politics — may not be personally involved in any of the controversies affecting the institution, the stains on the Church affect him by association. For instance, he was responsible for founding the St Anne's Adoption Society in 1954 to arrange the adoption of babies born to unmarried Irish mothers in Britain. An Irish Examiner investigation in 2018 found that an unmarked plot in St Finbarr's Cemetery was bought by the society, which closed in 2003. Four children are buried in it, with the deaths occurring between 1979 and 1990. A neighbouring plot is owned by a different organisation that ran nursery services for the St Anne's Society. The Irish Examiner has reported extensively on the issues relating to adoption in this country. It is enough to warrant wariness in a republic that, for all its faults, endeavours to look forward rather than dogmatically back. Of the at least 5.2m people in the country, almost 70% identify as Catholics, which suggests that even as Mass attendance continues to shrink, that there is still plenty of warmth in that as a broad identity. How relevant people see religion as being part of their everyday life is another debate entirely, and one that predominantly remains between an individual and their own heart. Ultimately, what councillors voted in favour of is a renaming process — a decision on the name is still some way off, and what's to say the original name won't stay? The park, which councillors have noted will bear no resemblance to the one that closed for a revamp in 2023, will belong to the people of Cork. Shouldn't it be up to them to decide if they want to stick with the old or give it a brand new identity? Healy is an inspiration For a relatively small island, we have always tended to punch above our weight in culture and sport, with cyclist Ben Healy now taking his place on our list of elite names by being the first Irishman in 38 years to take a yellow jersey at the Tour de France. The last were Stephen Roche (1987) and Sean Kelly (1983), more than a whole generation ago, with Shay Elliot being the first in 1963. At 24, Healy, born in England and of Waterford ancestry, has plenty of life left in his legs, and even if he doesn't win the overall competition, it is exciting to see how well he's done at this nascent stage of his career, having only turned pro in 2022. Alongside our cluster of Olympic gold medallists, one hopes he can help inspire the next generation of Irish youth, at home and in the diaspora. No pressure, Ben.
Irish Times
2 hours ago
- Irish Times
Joe Soap for president
Sir, – I wonder if the people of Ireland would like an ordinary Joe Soap as president. Somebody like me, for instance. I am not well known. I am not a member of any party. My achievements in life are extremely modest. I am not very articulate. I can't write for nuts. I have no grand messages for the people of Ireland. I am neither rich nor poor, though closer to poor. READ MORE I can't imagine anything I would do or say as president would offend any ordinary person like myself. I would continue to live in my modest home. The Áras could be converted into apartments for poor people. And 90 per cent of my salary would go to community groups. I would receive foreign dignitaries in my home as I receive all guests and visitors (I make a mean lemon cake). Don't all trample over each other in your rush to nominate me. – Yours, etc, TOM KELLY, Broadstone, Dublin 7.
