India and Pakistan — Sindoor, Bunyan Marsoos and peace

Express Tribune

14-05-2025

The writer is a retired major general and has an interest in International Relations and Political Sociology. He can be reached at [e-mail] and tweets @20_Inam
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While the military details of the recent skirmish between India and Pakistan from 7-10 May 2025 are being compiled, this Op-ed deals with the implications of this bruising standoff for India, and peace in South Asia.
First, the South Asian balance of power or precisely the Indo-Pakistan power equation stands greatly altered, besides the global military balance. An overconfident power-drunk India under a supposedly iron-like, tough talking Modi with the stature of a god, imbued with a false sense of supremacy, self-righteousness, hubris and arrogance, and buoyed by surging economic success, stands humiliated, compromised and much shorter than the stature it aspired and acquired.
A much smaller, weaker, divided and quieter Pakistan has given it a well-deserved drubbing of a lifetime in a resolute, calibrated and timely riposte. The jingoistic Indian media and the manipulative Hindutva cohort, who ratcheted up war hysteria to unknown frenzy and had captured most of Pakistan in their imagination under litany of falsehoods, today stand crestfallen and biting dust. India has lost a lot in the perceptual domain than it is willing to acknowledge.
The West Plus led by the US, and China, the wavering Arab world, SAARC nations and even Russia look at this totally unnecessary skirmish as grave error of miscalculation and overreach by New Delhi. The US might be soul-searching if they were betting on the right horse to stand up against a rising China. This episode has badly exposed India's international standing, its ability and capability and its staying power.
Second, Indian diplomatic corps is greatly embarrassed internationally for sticking to its Pakistan-originated terrorism mantra, and the military action, despite the world capitals urging restraint. Their case had no traction from day one. The consequent suing for peace after 'Bunyan Marsoos' decimated Bharat's military capability, and Pakistan's political and military leadership demonstrated their unflinching resolve to notch up on the escalation ladder, if India decided to go up, greatly undermined India's diplomatic stature.
Third, Modi's political standing in India stands greatly battered if the media clips from the Lok Sabha (the Indian Parliament) are any guide. The very purpose for which Pahalgam carnage was stage-managed, and Operation Sindoor launched under media fanfare, has backfired. The dividends expected have not accrued and the entire gamut has proved politically disastrous for Modi, BJP, RSS and Hindutva Doctrine.
Fourth, Indian Military especially the IAF appears weak, in disarray and less professional. While military details would be covered in future, the fact that the PAF Shaheens using their JF-17 Thunder, J-10C fighters planes (Chengdu Vigorous Dragon) with PL-15E missiles, without trans-border employment of F-16s (kept 'probably' for local air defence), not only forced India to ground its fleet of 36 odd state-of-the-art Rafael jets but also compelled IAF to move them around 300 km away from the International Border to avoid ambushes by PL-15Es, which already downed three Rafaels, one SU-30 MKI, one Mig-29, one Mirage-2000 — all fairly modern aircraft — and countless RPVs (Remotely Piloted Vehicles or drones), including Israeli Harop/Harpys. JF-17 using PGMs (Precision Guided Munitions) knocked India's S-400 Air Defence (AD) system, the most sophisticated Russian supplied AD system in the world that India had named as Sudarshan Chakra.
Fifth, Islamabad appeared taller militarily, politically and diplomatically. Pakistan's response — defensive and offensive — was in line with its policy of quid pro quo plus. It was mature, responsible, disproportionate where needed, calibrated in most cases, synchronised, and tightly controlling the escalation. A late response to Operation Sindoor would have been escalatory, whereas the tit-for-tat response as it went, was deemed Pakistan climbing the same escalation rung, where India was already perched.
Along the LoC, Pakistan's relentless response using artillery and other heavy calibers destroyed Indian posts, headquarters and supply dumps, besides improving defensive postures in the contested zones. In some cases, Indian Army was forced to raise white flags. In the waters, PN forced a retreat on the INS Vikrant, the sole Indian aircraft-carrier hosting MIG-29K jets.
The complex 'all domain all spectrum' Air-Land-Cyber and Space assault by Pakistan not only hit the Indian Military hard, it crippled grids, hacked surveillance cameras and websites, confused BrahMos Missile Guidance Systems, and manipulated Rafael's EW capability, using AI and other classified hi-tech tools.
Rafael appeared less formidable against the J-10C. Pakistan's Armed Forces executed integrated tri-service full spectrum response very responsibly, professionally, and in a calibrated manner, intentionally avoiding more damage to the Indian Military infrastructure, leadership and other high-value economic targets.
Sixth, by displaying grit, resolve and determination, Pakistan's political and military leaders, especially the Service Chiefs, in particular the COAS, Gen Asim Munir and the CAS, ACM Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu displayed quality combat leadership, and greatly debunked the home-grown and foreign supported anti-military propaganda. This importantly bridged the Army-People gap that was created by vested political interests intentionally and gullibly. Pakistan's inner front jelled like hell when the shots rang out. All political divisions disappeared, and the nation represented Bunyan Marsoos — the Solid Wall.
Seventh, chronic issues like Kashmir, and more recently the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT), would again be spotlighted as frontline international issues, against India's persistent effort to reduce them to the intractable Indo-Pakistan bilateralism. The US may push for a resolution because in its strategic iteration, it does not want India to be distracted by Pakistan, in Washington's competition with China. However, the US cannot afford to put too much pressure on New Delhi vis-à-vis Islamabad, fearing losing Bharat's support against Beijing.
Following from the above, certain conclusions can be drawn: a) Kashmir remains intractable despite being in the spotlight again, hence liberation movement and militant acts are likely to continue; b) IWT resolution would require international arbitration, and the Treaty might be reworked; c) although deterred for now, India in future would continue to look for excuses to impose the 'new normal' of retaliating against Pakistan for any terrorist act on its soil and Kashmir; d) South Asia especially India and Pakistan would continue living under uneasy peace; and, e) to obviate recurrence of Pulwamas and Pahalgams, Pakistan needs to declare its nuclear policy NOW.
It was a rude awakening for India from its make-believe world of Bollywood.
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