The Weekly Setup: What every investor needs to know about tariffs, Aritzia and job numbers
Here are five things to watch for this week:
Want ads: Economists estimate Canada added zero jobs in June. That's not a typo. The consensus estimate for net job growth in a country of 20.7 million workers is 0.0. The unemployment rate is expected to advance to 7.1 per cent – the highest since the pandemic peak, or, apart from that, since April, 2016. Tariffs provide ample reason for pessimism. The manufacturing sector could post a third straight month of job losses, notes Benjamin Reitzes, Bank of Montreal managing director for Canadian rates and a macro strategist. 'U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs doubled in June, which will hit those already struggling sectors even harder,' Mr. Reitzes wrote in a note to clients. The data will be key for the Bank of Canada, which is set to make an interest-rate decision at month's end. The central bank has held rates steady at 2.75 per cent for two consecutive meetings, but the market is pricing in only a slight chance of a rate cut. If payrolls disappoint, this could sway the odds in favour of another cut.
Let's make a deal: The deadline for deals with the United States on tariffs is fast approaching. President Donald Trump set July 9 as the deadline for country-based tariffs to begin on trading partners without deals in place. With the deadline days away, deals have only been hammered out with Vietnam and Britain. Although the U.S. and China have agreed to a truce, which involves cooling it on reciprocal tariffs and lowering export controls, Canada has promised a deal by July 21. Does a deal matter to markets? The S&P 500 INX and the TSX TXCX are at record highs. So far, tariffs aren't hitting inflation; does that mean companies are absorbing them at the expense of margins? Could margins be the undoing for investors? BMO chief investment officer Sadiq Adatia says tariffs may actually increase a company's profitability. 'Let's say a 10-per-cent tariff is imposed on goods crossing the border,' he said on my podcast. 'Most consumers think prices will go up by 10 per cent. But only 40 per cent of the product's cost comes from raw goods. So, 10 per cent on 40 per cent is only a 4-per-cent tariff. Companies know people expect 10 per cent, so they might raise prices by 7 per cent and say, 'We're doing you a favour. We're not doing 10.' But they've increased their profits by another 3 per cent.'
High fashion: Someone forgot to tell Aritzia Inc. ATZ-T there's a consumer slowdown. The stock hit a record high last week, creating an interesting set-up for quarterly results due Thursday after markets close. Aritzia is expected to show a 150-per-cent rebound in profitability and a nearly 15-per-cent jump in same-store sales. In this economy? Apparently. With the stock trading at a hefty premium to peers (UBS estimates it at 48 per cent) it will make the quarterly results a nail-biter. Will Aritzia continue to buck the trend of weak consumer growth? Can it continue to manage around tariffs? As with most companies, it may come down to the outlook it provides. 'We believe the 'bar' for the event is ATZ maintains its FY26 operating guidance and provides a 2Q26 outlook supportive of the Street's C$0.37 EPS forecast,' Mauricio Serna of UBS wrote in a preview note. Jamie Murray of Murray Wealth Group flagged Aritzia as a winner on my podcast back in February. It promptly went straight down before recovering and reaching new highs. He's still holding. 'They've beat quarterly guidance by at least 5 per cent the past 3 quarters and we expect a similar result,' he wrote in an e-mail.
Hungry for change: Shares of MTY Food Group Inc. MTY-T have been grinding lower for years, and this week investors will get to assess if catalysts for the stock remain elusive when it reports results on Friday. MTY is known as a food-court purveyor of such brands as Manchu Wok and Mr. Sub, but it has diversified and has many free-standing restaurants. It is also known for its growth-by-acquisition business model – except recently it hasn't been growing or acquiring. Its last deal was in 2022 for Wetzel's Pretzels. While sales of that brand are strong, other brands haven't fared as well and same-store sales have struggled for five consecutive quarters. Even so, it is worth pointing out that MTY is a cash-flow machine reliably spitting out more than $100-million a year. Bank of Nova Scotia's John Zamparo wondered out loud, in a June note to clients, if this makes MTY an attractive takeout candidate. 'MTY's valuation is overly punitive,' he wrote, noting that MTY owns 90 brands but only three are interesting to investors (Wetzel's, Cold Stone, sweetFrog). 'Strategic buyers typically want simpler businesses … which leads to private equity as the likeliest acquirer,' Mr. Zamparo said.
Turbulence: Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL-N reports Thursday and will give investors a sense of travel demand. Between tariffs, geopolitics and a spike in gas prices, not to mention generally lower travel into the U.S., there was no shortage of volatility for airlines. We will see how all of this plays out. The airline is poised to report a 7-per-cent drop in revenue and 12-per-cent drop in earnings per share.
In the Money with Amber Kanwar brings you actionable insights from top portfolio managers and business leaders. New episodes out Tuesdays and Thursdays.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Globe and Mail
13 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
America is sinking, and Canada cannot go down with the ship
Claude Lavoie is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He was director-general of economic studies and policy analysis at the Department of Finance from 2008 to 2023. Here we are. Wednesday is the deadline for countries to sign new trade deals with the United States, or face punishing tariffs. The European Union seems confident it will reach a deal, though the outlook does not look so rosy for others. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened 25-per-cent tariffs on Japan and Korea if they don't come to heel. As the clock ticks down, it's worth noting the irony: Mr. Trump is blaming other countries for the large U.S. trade deficits when the U.S. should be looking at itself. This trade war – plus the passing of the 'Big Beautiful Bill' last week and the associated boost in spending – suggests it's unlikely Americans will do the appropriate work to address their issues. And while trade deficits are not inherently good or bad, these continuous large deficits will end up disturbing financial and currency markets, creating challenges and opportunities for Canada. A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports, or essentially when Americans spend more than they earn. Analysis: The U.S. midterm campaigns will test whether Trump has truly set electoral politics on a new course To make up the difference, the U.S. economy borrows from foreign investors by selling them government or corporate bonds, stocks, real estate and other instruments. The accumulation of trade deficits over the years mean that the U.S. is heavily indebted to other countries. On a net basis (accounting for what is owed by other countries to the U.S.), Americans owe the rest of the world US$26-trillion – 90 per cent of the U.S. GDP. This is the largest net foreign debt of any advanced economy. Normally such a high level of foreign debt would worry financial markets. Investors would start dumping U.S. assets, which would lead to a U.S. dollar depreciation and higher interest rates for American borrowers. However, Americans have increased their foreign debt with impunity because the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency. Indeed, some might say the chicken comes before the egg: The U.S. spends more than it produces precisely because it attracts so much foreign money. Needing U.S. dollar-denominated assets to pay for their international transactions, foreign investors are willing to turn a blind eye to the country's excessive spending. This is America's so-called 'exorbitant privilege' that provides the U.S. with lower costs of borrowing, cheaper import prices and power over the global financial system. This privilege certainly incentivizes Americans to become more indebted, but just because you have a line of credit with a very low interest rate doesn't mean you should max it out. Through years of abusing its privilege, the United States has eroded confidence in its dollar. According to a CFA Institute survey, close to two-thirds of global financial professionals expect that the greenback will lose its leading reserve-currency status in the next five to 15 years. The global selloff of American bonds last month suggests the U.S. administration's chaotic actions may have accelerated this timeline. Marcus Gee: How Trump could make Canada better One might expect that a combination of tariffs, drastic public spending cuts, and a potential Mar-a-Lago accord (designed to devalue the dollar) will correct this problem. Drastic public spending cuts, such as those announced by DOGE, might help but are unlikely to be large enough. Any significant fiscal deficit reduction will require cuts in social programs because, as in Canada, most government outlays are transfers to individuals. Such cuts will increase poverty and inequality rates, which are already among the highest in the industrialized world, and risk leading to social unrest. The debate around last week's 'Big Beautiful Bill' shows how difficult it will be to bring spending to a level compatible with a reasonable deficit. Tariffs increase consumer prices and reduce spending, reducing borrowing needs. However, tariffs also increase the costs of inputs and production and make other countries retaliate. These lead production and income to fall, increasing borrowing needs. Raising individual taxes is one potential effective solution. But Mr. Trump is doing the opposite to satiate the rich oligarchy supporting his administration. This means the amount of debt the U.S. owes will continue to pile up. This and political dysfunction are significantly threatening the position of the greenback as the world's reserve currency and raising the risk of a global currency realignment. We can expect the U.S. to gradually lose its financial power and the U.S. dollar to weaken. When foreign investors sell their U.S. assets, will they invest the proceeds in Canada or somewhere else? This will depend on how financial markets perceive our country, particularly our ability to decouple from the U.S. economy. The fact that the Canadian dollar has remained relatively weak suggests the market is not too optimistic about our ability to do so. The new federal government has a marketing job to do. Canada is well positioned. Our fiscal situation is relatively sound, at least for now. Canadians are net lenders to the rest of the world. Our inequality and poverty rates are relatively low. Even if we're cut off from the U.S. market, Canadian businesses still benefit from 15 free-trade agreements and preferential access to 50 markets representing a third of the global economy. A company setting up in Canada has access to all these markets and will likely have better access to the U.S. market than if it goes somewhere else. The current trade war presents challenges and opportunities for Canada. Further improving our investments and economic framework would make Canada more attractive for human and physical capital losing faith in the U.S. We need to show we can be economically independent and able to withstand what is looking like the gradual fall of the American empire.
CTV News
25 minutes ago
- CTV News
Trump to put 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, new import taxes on five other nations.
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday set a 25 per cent tax on goods imported from Japan and South Korea, as well as new tariff rates on Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos and Myanmar, all of which would go into effect on Aug. 1. Trump provided notice by posting letters on Truth Social that were addressed to the leaders of the various countries. The letters warned them to not retaliate by increasing their own import taxes, or else the Trump administration would further increase tariffs. 'If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25 per cent that we charge,' Trump wrote in the letters to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. The letters were not the final word from Trump on tariffs, so much as another episode in a global economic drama in which he has placed himself at the center. His moves have raised fears that economic growth would slow to a trickle, if not make the U.S. and other nations more vulnerable to a recession. But Trump is confident that tariffs are necessary to bring back domestic manufacturing and fund the tax cuts he signed into law last Friday. He mixed his sense of aggression with a willingness to still negotiate, signaling the likelihood that the drama and uncertainty would continue and that few things are ever final with Trump. Imports from Malaysia would be taxed at 25 per cent, Myanmar at 40 per cent, Laos at 40 per cent, South Africa at 30 per cent and Kazakhstan at 25 per cent. Trump placed the word 'only' before revealing the rate in his letters to the foreign leaders, implying that he was being generous with his tariffs. Trade talks have yet to deliver several deals White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated at a news briefing that similar letters to approximately five other countries also would be issued on Monday. Following a now well-worn pattern, Trump plans to continue sharing the letters sent to his counterparts on social media and then mail them the documents, an stark departure from the more formal practices of all his predecessors when negotating trade agreements. The letters are not agreed-to settlements but Trump's own choice on rates, a sign that the closed-door talks with foreign delegations failed to produce satisfactory results for either side. Leavitt said that Trump was by setting the rates himself creating 'tailor-made trade plans for each and every country on this planet and that's what this administration continues to be focused on.' Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute who formerly worked in the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, said the tariff hikes on Japan and South Korea were 'unfortunate.' 'Both have been close partners on economic security matters and have a lot to offer the United States on priority matters like shipbuilding, semiconductors, critical minerals and energy cooperation,' Cutler said. 'Moreover, companies from both countries have made significant manufacturing investments in the U.S. in recent years, bringing high-paying jobs to U.S. workers and benefiting communities all around the country.' Trump still has outstanding differences on trade with the European Union and India, among other trading partners. Tougher talks with China are on a longer time horizon in which imports from that nation are being taxed at 55 per cent. Higher tariffs prompt market worries, more talks ahead The S&P 500 stock index was down nearly one per cent in Monday afternoon trading, while the interest charged on the 10-year U.S. Treasury noted had increased to nearly 4.39 per cent, a figure that could translate into elevated rates for mortgages and auto loans. Trump has declared an economic emergency to unilaterally impose the taxes, suggesting they are remedies for past trade deficits even though many U.S. consumers have come to value autos, electronics and other goods from Japan and South Korea. The constitution grants Congress the power to levy tariffs under normal circumstances, though tariffs can also result from executive branch investigations regarding national security risks. It's unclear what he gains strategically against China — another stated reason for the tariffs — by challenging two crucial partners in Asia, Japan and South Korea, that could counter China's economic heft. 'These tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country,' Trump wrote in both letters. Because the new tariff rates go into effect in roughly three weeks, Trump is setting up a period of possibly tempestuous talks among the U.S. and its trade partners to reach new frameworks. 'I don't see a huge escalation or a walk back — it's just more of the same," said Scott Lincicome, a vice president at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. Trump initially roiled the financial markets by announcing tariff rates on dozens of countries, including 24 per cent on Japan and 25 per cent on South Korea. In order to calm the markets, Trump unveiled a 90-day negotiating period during which goods from most countries were taxed at a baseline 10 per cent. So far, the rates in the letters sent by Trump either match his April 2 tariffs or are close to them. The 90-day negotiating period technically ends on Wednesday, even as multiple administration officials suggested the three-week period before implementation is akin to overtime for additional talks that could change the rates. Trump plans to sign an executive order on Monday to delay the official tariff increases until Aug. 1, Leavitt said. Congressionally approved Trade agreements historically have sometimes taken years to negotiate because of the complexity. Administration officials have said Trump is relying on tariff revenues to help offset the tax cuts he signed into law on July 4, a move that could shift a greater share of the federal tax burden onto the middle class and poor as importers would likely pass along much of the cost of the tariffs. Trump has warned major retailers such as Walmart to simply 'eat' the higher costs, instead of increasing prices in ways that could intensify inflation. Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at The Atlantic Council, said that a three-week delay in imposing the tariffs was unlikely sufficient for meaningful talks to take place. 'I take it as a signal that he is serious about most of these tariffs and it's not all a negotiating posture,' Lipsky said. Few deals have materialized so far Trump's team promised 90 deals in 90 days, but his negotiations so far have produced only two trade frameworks. His outline of a deal with Vietnam was clearly designed to box out China from routing its America-bound goods through that country, by doubling the 20 per cent tariff charged on Vietnamese imports on anything traded transnationally. The quotas in the signed United Kingdom framework would spare that nation from the higher tariff rates being charged on steel, aluminum and autos, though British goods would generally face a 10 per cent tariff. The United States ran a US$69.4 billion trade imbalance in goods with Japan in 2024 and a $66 billion imbalance with South Korea, according to the Census Bureau. The trade deficit was $24.9 billion with Malaysia, $1.3 billion with Kazakhstan, $8.9 billion with South Africa, $763 million with Laos, $577 million with Myanmar. The trade deficits are the differences between what the U.S. exports to a country relative to what it imports. According to Trump's letters, autos would be tariffed separately at the standard 25 per cent worldwide, while steel and aluminum imports would be taxed on 50 per cent. This is not the first time that Trump has tangled with Japan and South Korea on trade — and the new tariffs suggest his past deals made during his first term failed to deliver on his administration's own hype. In 2018, during Trump's first term, his administration celebrated a revamped trade agreement with South Korea as a major win. And in 2019, Trump signed a limited agreement with Japan on agricultural products and digital trade that at the time he called a 'huge victory for America's farmers, ranchers and growers.' Trump has also said on social media that countries aligned with the policy goals of BRICS, an organization composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, would face additional tariffs of 10 per cent.
National Post
26 minutes ago
- National Post
Finance minister directs cabinet colleagues to find billions in spending cuts
OTTAWA – After several big government 'investments,' it's time for cuts: Canada's Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne has directed his cabinet colleagues to find ways to cut spending by billions of dollars as he prepares to present his first budget in October. Article content In two letters sent Monday to all his cabinet colleagues — including secretaries of state who sit outside cabinet as junior ministers — Champagne stated his intention to reduce program spending by 7.5 per cent for the 2026–27 fiscal year, by 10 per cent in the second year, and 15 per cent in 2028–29. Article content Article content Article content National Post did not see the confidential letters, but several high-ranking sources confirmed their contents, as initially reported by La Presse. Article content Article content 'As part of this ambitious review, each minister must examine the programs and activities in their portfolio to determine which (of them): achieve their objectives, are essential to the federal mandate and complement rather than duplicate what is offered elsewhere by the federal government or by other levels of government,' the letter states, a senior government source said. Article content Champagne also asked ministers for 'three priority proposals that can be funded by the reallocation of existing funds, following a spending review' by the end of the summer. Article content Liberal government insiders indicated that a first wave of budget cuts could be felt in the next budget, with 'initial savings.' Article content 'It is a long-term transformation of government,' said Champagne's spokesperson, Audrey Milette. She also confirmed that department cuts will be 'a curve over a certain period of time.' Article content Article content In a written statement to this newspaper, Public Service Alliance of Canada president Sharon DeSousa said that the union supports Prime Minister Mark Carney's efforts at building a strong economy, but doesn't support cutting public services in the name of 'efficiency.' Article content Article content 'Canada's public service workers power this country, and we need a strong, stable public service to make that vision a reality,' she said. Article content 'We expect to meet with Treasury Board and the Prime Minister's Office as soon as possible for a full briefing on the expenditure review and its potential impact on workers and public services.' Article content A senior government source said the idea isn't to 'hurt' the public sector, but to implement long-term changes in how the government operates, including reorganizing staff. As an example, the source said staffers could hypothetically be reassigned from the Immigration Department to National Defence or Housing. Article content This initiative is being led by the Department of Finance and the Treasury Board at the request of Carney, who often repeated 'invest more, spend less' throughout his recent federal election campaign.
