Trump's sagging poll numbers become a concern for GOP

The Hill

30-04-2025

President Trump's sagging poll numbers as he hits his 100th day in office are becoming a concern for Republicans, who have been steadfastly loyal to the White House but are starting to look ahead to the midterm elections.
While the White House is not expressing concern about Trump's downward trajectory in the polls, Republican operatives say Trump needs to stop with the turbulence on tariffs and focus on fulfilling the promises he made as a presidential candidate on the economy.
'It's actually incredibly simple,' said Republican strategist Kevin Madden. 'Trump won in 2024 because a broader coalition of voters were nostalgic for the pre-COVID economy of Trump's first term and they believed Trump was better suited to address their concerns about inflation.
'His approval has dropped because the pursuit of restrictive trade policies and higher tariffs has initiated a new round of concern among voters. Trump still has strong support from his most dedicated Republican voters, but the flight of moderates and independent voters, who tend to be nomadic, are currently diluting his political coverage.'
Madden added that Trump's drop in the polls is 'exactly the type of shift you worry about ahead of midterms.'
'When you lose the 'big middle' of the electorate, the swing races move away from you and the districts that usually have comfortable partisan margins can become surprise contests,' he said. 'It's still early, but the trend lines from the tariff policy are, so far, not looking good.'
A Decision Desk HQ survey out Wednesday morning showed Trump underwater, with an approval rating of 44 percent and 56 percent disapproving of his performance.
The poll was in line with a host of other surveys that also suggest Trump is in trouble, largely because of his trade policies.
Sixty-four percent in the Decision Desk HQ poll also said tariffs hurt consumers, and 91 percent said they were worried about inflation, an issue that Trump campaign on against President Biden. Sixty-two percent said they were very concerned about inflation, which can rise because of tariffs.
Other polls out in the last week also showed a sizable drop in Trump's approval ratings.
A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll out Sunday showed Trump's approval fell from 45 percent in February to 39 percent in March. Trump saw a similar drop in a New York Times poll, which revealed that 42 percent of those surveyed approved of Trump's job performance.
Republicans attribute the falling numbers to the headlines around Trump's tariffs, which sent markets plunging and left Americans worried about their retirement accounts. Markets have recovered a portion of those losses but remain below where they stood on Trump's first day in office.
'I think what's concerning people — and I think he knows this — are the economics of, and the uncertainty around this tariff protocol,' Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), a member of Republican leadership, told The Hill on Monday. 'I think that's what you see reflected.'
Susan Del Percio, a veteran Republican strategist who does not support Trump, said Trump arguably benefited from 'a bit of a Biden hangover' at the start of the presidency.
Voters fed up with rising costs at grocery stores felt the country was headed in the wrong direction under former President Biden and voted for change. But now they aren't seeing those price changes, Del Percio said.
Trump has the firm support of his base, which Del Percio said has got him through everything, and he hasn't signaled much worry about his polling or economic numbers. But Republicans are in a different political situation.
'I don't think the Trump team cares about its numbers as much as the House and Senate Republicans care about it,' she said.
In a speech to mark his first 100 days in office on Tuesday, Trump touted that prices 'are coming way down.'
'Gasoline prices are down by a lot. Energy prices are down. Mortgage rates are down,' Trump said. 'Prescription drug prices just took the biggest plunge … ever in the history of prescription drug prices.'
He added that 'grocery prices have gone down. Everything has gone down.'
He also argued the string of polls was inaccurate.
'They poll more Democrats than Republicans,' Trump said.
The poor polling numbers for Trump represent an opportunity for Democrats, who have been trying to figure out a new direction for their party. Some voices within the party said Democrats should seize upon Trump's performance in the polls, showing voters that he misled them in the run-up to last year's election.
Others have signaled an all-out war against Trump.
On Monday, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, whom many expect to mount a 2028 presidential campaign, suggested his party could not take a passive approach when dealing with Trump.
'It's time to fight everywhere and all at once,' Pritzker told a group of Democrats in New Hampshire on Monday. 'Never before in my life have I called for mass protests, for mobilization, for disruption. But I am now. These Republicans cannot know a moment of peace.'
'The reckoning is finally here,' Pritzker added.
Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton, who worked in the first Trump administration, said he isn't concerned about Trump's approval numbers.
'Poll numbers go up and down,' Singleton said. 'That's part of politics.'
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'Every leader has to lead in a way that they believe is going to yield the best results for the people who voted for them and sometimes the way people interpret those things are not always in sync so you have to make adjustments,' he added.
At the same time, Singleton pointed to a part of the Washington Post/ABC poll that showed while Trump's approval rating is on a downward spiral, he still instills more trust than Democrats in Congress.
'They still trust him more than Democrats to lead the country, and that says a whole lot,' he said.