Coolie vs War 2 advance booking: Rajinikanth's film leads with 60% buzz

India Today

a day ago

As the Independence Day weekend nears, the stage is set for one of the year's biggest box office clashes — 'Coolie' versus 'War 2'. Trade analyst Ramesh Bala and theater owner and trade expert Vishek Chauhan, both experts, offer a preview of what promises to be a thunderous Independence Day clash.''Coolie' is clearly leading in terms of pre-release buzz and social media traction,' says Bala. "The audio launch was a massive event, and the star cast is a big draw — you have Rajinikanth, Nagarjuna, Upendra, Shobana, and Aamir Khan. That pan-India appeal is working in its favour," he adds.advertisementWhile YRF's 'War 2', starring Hrithik Roshan and Jr NTR, is part of the successful spy universe, it has taken a relatively quiet pre-release route. "'War 2' hasn't had any big events yet. They've only put out trailers and songs, so traction is slower, especially overseas," Bala points out.
Overseas advantage: Coolie takes the leadAdvance bookings in international markets are already underway, and Coolie has taken the lead. "In North America and other overseas territories, 'Coolie' is currently ahead in terms of advance bookings," confirms Bala. 'In India, advance booking usually opens just a week before release. So we'll get a clearer picture by this weekend.'Screen count: Hindi vs South dominanceAccording to Bala, screen allocation is expected to vary regionally. "In the Hindi belt, War 2 will dominate. But in the South, Coolie will have the upper hand," he explains. "'War 2' is being dubbed in Tamil and Telugu, so it might get a decent number of screens in Telugu states due to Jr NTR, but Tamil Nadu will largely favour 'Coolie'."That said, both films are expected to have wide releases overseas. "Developed countries have enough screens to accommodate both, although there might be some overlap in formats like IMAX," Bala adds."In North India, 'War 2' is definitely going to open huge. It's an established franchise, part of the Spy Universe, and Hrithik Roshan is a massive star up North. So yes, 'War 2' will have a much bigger opening in that region. In the South, NTR will drive the initial traction. He enjoys a massive fan following in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and certain other pockets of South India. So while 'Coolie' may have the edge in Tamil Nadu and other traditional markets, 'War 2' will certainly put up a strong fight in the South as well, thanks to NTR's presence," Chauhan stated.100-crore weekend dream still aliveDespite the clash, Bala remains optimistic about the four-day weekend. 'It's not a three-day weekend — it's four days with Independence Day falling on Friday. That gives both films ample room. If word of mouth is decent, they can both hit Rs 100 crore in India.'Chauhan added, "I believe a Rs 100 crore opening weekend is very much on the cards — even with the clash. 'War 2' should dominate the Hindi belt and Telangana, which will contribute significantly to the total. Meanwhile, 'Coolie', with its presence in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, and Andhra-Telangana, along with a decent spread in North India — thanks to Aamir Khan's presence — should also do very well.advertisementOn opening day expectations, Bala says: 'Coolie could do Rs 80–90 crore gross in India and around Rs. 150 crore worldwide. 'War 2' may open at Rs 75 crore gross in India and Rs 100–125 crore globally. These are gross figures, because when one film is from the South and the other is a Bollywood product, gross gives a more accurate comparison.'He also explains why net collections don't always make for a fair comparison. 'In Bollywood, we often use net collections within India. But when a film has a strong South presence and overseas pull, gross is the more suitable metric. That way, you're comparing apples to apples.'Star power: Coolie commands 60% of the buzzWhen asked if this is an even star battle between Rajinikanth, Hrithik Roshan, and Jr NTR, Bala says the scale tips in favour of 'Coolie'. 'Coolie has five big names — Rajinikanth, Nagarjuna, Upendra, Shobana, and Aamir Khan. 'War 2' has Hrithik and Jr NTR. I would say 'Coolie' commands about 60% of the star-driven pull and 'War 2' about 40%.'advertisementWatch the trailer here: Not metro vs Tier 2, but North vs SouthBala refutes the idea that this clash will play out as a Metro vs Tier 2-3 story. 'It's not that kind of divide. It's more of a North versus South situation. 'War 2' is rooted in Bollywood, while 'Coolie' is a South-based film with national appeal thanks to its casting.'Chauhan added, "Both films cater to all segments of the audience and are getting very wide releases. They aren't limited to metros or non-metros — the appeal of both cuts across geographies, from North to South, East to West. These are classic big-ticket Hindi films. If they work, they'll work across the board — not just in isolated regions like Mumbai, Delhi, or Amaravathi."Watch the trailer here: Final word: It's all about the word of mouthWhile both films are expected to open big, Bala underlines the ultimate decider — audience reception. "Once the first shows are over and reviews are out, word of mouth becomes crucial. As long as neither film gets extremely negative feedback, both should do well. But if one stumbles, the other could take a clear lead."On August 14, the screens light up. The only question is — which film will set the box office ablaze first?- EndsMust Watch