US, China and Russia: Navigating the superpower trilemma

Time of India

4 days ago

Today, Indian foreign policy discourse is mired in an important debate. Two key assumptions govern this debate: that New Delhi's ties with the US arguably constitute its most important relationship in the 21st century, and that any negotiations with Beijing are a signal of weakness.
India-US relations are undergoing a tense phase. The tensions have primarily been instigated by US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on India, and an additional, 'unspecified penalty' for continuing to buy energy resources from Russia. His social media comments have gone so far as to refer to both India and Russia as 'dead economies.' Naturally, this has called into question the time-tested nature of the partnership in the face of the 'China challenge'.
With the US-China equation changing, India has to balance ties with both as well as work towards its own national interests
Speaking of China, after a long period of severed dialogue, postures on both sides have slightly relaxed, though the road to stability vis-à-vis the border issue, or even China's backing of Pakistan, is long and winding. Nonetheless, communication and negotiation between the two neighbours is underway, and is perhaps a welcome break from the silent-but-violent treatment.
Besides the volatility in New Delhi's ties with the two superpowers, there exists a bilateral dynamic between the US and China, which vitally impacts India. An intense back-and-forth of escalating tariffs ensued between the two economic giants earlier this year. Yet, Trump's recent statements seem to suggest that a trade deal with Beijing is in the works. So how does that affect India? So far, India has believed that Trump's continued dissatisfaction with Beijing will be a core aspect of mutual convergence between itself and the US. This definitely was the case under the Joe Biden administration. But if anything is certain about Trump, it is that nothing, indeed, is certain. So, the US and China may not be entering a friendly phase, but they sure are inching toward some semblance of stability.
The dynamics of this fateful triangle require that India think in its national interests— sustained economic growth and security of its territory from both external and internal threats. And as PM Modi himself remarked in an interview in 2023, '[The] foremost guiding principle in foreign affairs is our country's national interest.' This begs the question: How should New Delhi balance the nuances of its ties with the US and China and the repercussions of their own thaw, while working to achieve its national interests?
One way is not to believe that negotiations with China signal weakness. This anxiety is likely to play up as New Delhi and Beijing negotiate. Most recently, India has eased tourism rules, while China has opened up access for Indians to undertake the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. To a great degree, India's geographical, economic and military constraints require that communication with Beijing continue for sustainable security to be achieved.
This is not to say that India should give up its confident posture, or discontinue investments in de-risking or border security. It is also not a call for it to shed its affinity for the US. But the steps toward a thaw with Beijing — high-level political conversations, ministerial-level dialogues, and working mechanism consultations on the border — are necessary. And at a time when Trump seems to be prepared to meet the 'China challenge' alone, India must figure its own way out to do the same.
Second, is to evaluate costs when it comes to fulfilling its energy requirements through purchases from Russia. The affordability of such purchases, and the historic nature of ties with Moscow (especially in defence), make it a vital partner to New Delhi. However, Trump is prioritising reciprocal access to the Indian market over having a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific. And in a world where the US is vastly more powerful than India — or in most aspects, even China — much of what Trump says, goes.
So the question is, where is the common ground between India not shedding its friendship with Russia, not risking insurmountable tariffs from the US, and not enabling China's unchecked regional power? The intertwined interests of economic growth and stable security seem orthogonal in this situation.
But it is important to face facts. If it wasn't buying oil from Russia, India would still get the tariff slap. If there was great openness in the Indian dairy and agricultural markets, which Trump consistently demands, there would still be an 'unspecified penalty' for trading with Russia. So, the acknowledgement that there is no absolute win-win, is essential. It boils down to assessing what is more harmful — not making any adjustments to the trade numbers with Russia, or the US.
It is also important to acknowledge the trade-offs — if there is a significant reduction in the imports of oil and/or defence equipment from Russia, and the US becomes the preferred alternative source of imports, Moscow may become unabashed in its support for China in its disputes with India. If trade with Russia continues as is, India shall face agonistic tariffs under Donald Trump and an overall lack of support in regional geopolitics.
It is indeed true that India's tariffs continue to remain high, market openness is low, and domestic innovation and production capability face challenges. Hence, is the first step to addressing the above mentioned dilemma to take difficult steps towards phased openness? Most likely. It may assuage Trump's concerns about the US's trade deficit, without creating many troubles in India-Russia relations.
Finally, the worrisome trend of self-reliance across the globe is leaving fewer alternatives for India to replace its dependencies on the US, China, or Russia. Where it gets affordable imports, it faces controversial dilemmas. Where it sees a strong partner, it faces chiding and deriding. So, moving forward, even as the willingness to negotiate diplomatically must continue, India must invest in its own trajectory toward economic and military modernisation.
Illustration credit: Illustration by Chad Crowe (USA)
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Views expressed above are the author's own.