Chances increase slightly for tropical development over Fourth of July. See Florida impact

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2 days ago

Chances for something tropical developing over or near Florida in the coming days increased while you slept.
There's now a 40% chance for a tropical or subtropical depression forming over the next seven days if an area of low pressure develops in the southeastern Atlantic or Gulf by the holiday weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie — now a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds — is moving west-northwest away from land. Weakening is expected by the end of the day, July2.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 2:
An area of low pressure could develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a weakening frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week."
Factors helping prevent tropical development include wind shear and dry air, including Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and into the Gulf.
Hurricane Flossie is about 315 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, with higher gusts. Flossie is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day.
All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring five tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean:
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 23W in the eastern Atlantic, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 14N, moving westward around 17 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
Tropical wave 4: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 5: A tropical wave that had been in the western Caribbean is now crossing Central America into the eastern Pacific Ocean along 86W. It is moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Florida weather forecast for July 2, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: The best chance for rain today will be along and east of I-65. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Wet pattern continues into Wednesday. We're also watching the potential development of a weak low next week, but main concerns with this feature still revolve around heavy rain. Some areas could see an estimated 4 to 6 inches of rain through the holiday weekend, with localized higher amounts possible. High of 89.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of tropical cyclone development, flooding rainfall risk increases Friday through the holiday weekend. "We are currently on a 26-day streak of the Jacksonville International Airport measuring a maximum temperature of 90 degrees" or warmer," the National Weather Service Jacksonville posted on X. "This ranks as the 20th longest stretch on record for JAX. This streak will likely continue this week."
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Some morning sun then increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms developing. Highs range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Increasing showers and thunderstorms today may result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: "There remains high uncertainty with this (system with tropical potential) feature, but the main impact is expected to be heavy rainfall locally into the weekend." Highs today range from 89 in Fort Myers to 86 in Sarasota.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This story was updated to add new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane center tracks Florida rain impact, tropical development