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Uncertain outlook for energy demand due to trade uncertainty: Kpler

Uncertain outlook for energy demand due to trade uncertainty: Kpler

CNBC6 hours ago
Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East & OPEC+ Insights at Kpler, discuss how uncertainty around Trump's tariffs are playing out in the energy patch in the second half of the year. She also discusses U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, saying she expects Washington to continue pressuring Tehran with sanctions till there's a clear resolution to the conflict between Israel and Iran. She says sanctions need to be followed by rigorous implementation to be effective.
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Trump Signs The Bill Today: 4 Winners Of The New ‘Big Beautiful Bill
Trump Signs The Bill Today: 4 Winners Of The New ‘Big Beautiful Bill

Forbes

time25 minutes ago

  • Forbes

Trump Signs The Bill Today: 4 Winners Of The New ‘Big Beautiful Bill

Today Trump Signs His 'Big Beautiful Bill' Into Law: 4 Huge Winners; Image U.S. President Donald ... More Trump speaks to guests from the South Portico of the White House (Photo by) Less than six months after taking office, President Donald Trump notches a huge win for his presidency and his legislative agenda. What Trump has dubbed his 'big, beautiful bill' passed both chambers of congress and is on its way to his desk for signature. Despite exposing rifts within the GOP over Medicaid and food stamp cuts, the bill—which solidifies Trump's tax cuts and provides billions for immigration enforcement—has passed. And, despite breaking against Republican calls for fiscal accountability, the big, beautiful bill— which raises the nation's debt limit by $5 trillion—made it across the finish line before President Trump's self-imposed July 4 deadline. Here are some of the biggest winners. Trump gets a huge win with the big, beautiful bill. This bill makes many of President Trump's campaign promises a reality. The big beautiful bill passing is a big, beautiful legislative win for Trump and will be part of his legacy. Not only did Donald Trump get this bill passed through both chambers of congress, he got it done before his self-imposed July 4 deadline. This was no small feat and speaks volumes to the power he wields over his party and his ability to persuade and lead people to action. As late as Wednesday, there remained several GOP holdouts to the bill, but after meeting with the president at the White House, many shared that they had been persuaded to vote for the bill despite their doubts and hesitations. For all the controversy over Trump's leadership style and communication methods, one thing is sure. He gets the results he wants and has demonstrated a keen ability to move people to action. Trump has an unusual ability to compel others—including many of his fiercest critics—to get in line and back him and his vision and agenda. Despite threats by Elon Musk to primary any republican who voted for the big, beautiful bill, congress moved forward with passage. Donald Trump has succeeded at getting his party (in both chambers) to deliver him a win on his 'big, beautiful bill.' And they did so despite openly complaining and expressing regret for many individual components and the near $4 trillion-dollar price tag of the bill. This is a clear win for Trump and represents the president's signature domestic achievement thus far. Corporations, small businesses and manufacturers win big in Trump's big, beautiful bill. The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act provided many tax breaks to corporate America. When Trumps signs the big, beautiful bill into law, these corporate benefits will become permanent. Trillions of dollars in corporate tax cuts (first enacted by Trump in 2017) as well as expansions on other business tax breaks will become permanent. According to NBC News, this includes Big business groups come out as big winners now that the bill has passed in congress. This legislation allows businesses to continue writing off the cost of equipment in the first year that it was purchased. It also will reinstate the ability for businesses to write off expenses for research and development in the year they are incurred. PBS News reports that manufacturing companies will benefit from provisions in the law that will allow them to 'fully and immediately deduct the costs of new manufacturing plants' and are incentivized to produce semi productors. High-income earners win when Trump signs the big, beautiful bill. Trump's big, beautiful bill expands the cap on deducible state and local taxes from $10,000 to $40,000 for taxpayers. The big beautiful bill has finally accomplished what many conservatives have strived for over decades. Chris Stein with The Guardian expresses it this way, The celebratory bill signage for Trump's big beautiful bill. No congressional Democrats voted for the big beautiful bill, but that did not matter because after all was said and done, Republicans—mostly united—stepped up and delivered this win for their party and for President Donald Trump. The president will sign the bill into law at 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, and he's doing it up big. Thursday, Trump told reporters flying with him on Air Force One that, "we'll be signing with those beautiful planes flying right over our heads.' Recommended reading: How Long Will The Federal Hiring Freeze Last? Implications For Government Employees Can Trump Dissolve USAID? 10,000 Jobs Hang In The Balance Trump Signs Order Ending Remote Work; Mandates Federal Workers Return To Office

American bombs in Iran also reverberate in China and North Korea

time26 minutes ago

American bombs in Iran also reverberate in China and North Korea

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- President Donald Trump campaigned on keeping the United States out of foreign wars, but it didn't take long to convince him to come to the direct aid of Israel, hitting Iranian nuclear targets with bunker-buster bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from a submarine. Beyond the attack's immediate impact on helping bring the 12-day war to a close, experts say Trump's decision to use force against another country also will certainly be reverberating in the Asia-Pacific, Washington's priority theater. 'Trump's strikes on Iran show that he's not afraid to use military force — this would send a clear message to North Korea, and even to China and Russia, about Trump's style,' said Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Center for a New American Security based in Seoul, South Korea. 'Before the strikes, Pyongyang and Beijing might have assumed that Trump is risk averse, particularly based on his behavior his first presidency despite some tough talk," Kim said. Ten days into the war between Israel and Iran, Trump made the risky decision to step in, hitting three nuclear sites with American firepower on June 22 in a bid to destroy the country's nuclear program at a time while negotiations between Washington and Tehran were still ongoing. The attacks prompted a pro forma Iranian retaliatory strike the following day on a U.S. base in nearby Qatar, which caused no casualties, and both Iran and Israel then agreed to a ceasefire on June 24. North Korea, China and Russia all were quick to condemn the American attack, with Russian President Vladimir Putin calling it 'unprovoked aggression,' China's Foreign Ministry saying it violated international law and 'exacerbated tensions in the Middle East,' and North Korea's Foreign Ministry maintaining it 'trampled down the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state.' While the strikes were a clear tactical success, the jury is still out on whether they will have a more broad strategic benefit to Washington's goals in the Middle East or convince Iran it needs to work harder than ever to develop a nuclear deterrent, possibly pulling the U.S. back into a longer-term conflict. If the attack remains a one-off strike, U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region likely will see the decision to become involved as a positive sign from Trump's administration, said Euan Graham, a senior defense analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. 'The U.S. strike on Iran will be regarded as net plus by Pacific allies if it is seen to reinforce red lines, restore deterrence and is of limited duration, so as not to pull the administration off-course from its stated priorities in the Indo-Pacific,' he said. 'China will take note that Trump is prepared to use force, at least opportunistically.' In China, many who have seen Trump as having a 'no-war mentality' will reassess that in the wake of the attacks, which were partially aimed at forcing Iran's hand in nuclear program negotiations, said Zhao Minghao, an international relations professor at China's Fudan University in Shanghai. 'The way the U.S. used power with its air attacks against Iran is something China needs to pay attention to,' he said. 'How Trump used power to force negotiations has a significance for how China and the U.S. will interact in the future.' But, he said, Washington should not think it can employ the same strategy with Beijing. 'If a conflict breaks out between China and the U.S., it may be difficult for the U.S. to withdraw as soon as possible, let alone withdraw unscathed,' he said. Indeed, China and North Korea present very different challenges than Iran. First and foremost, both already have nuclear weapons, raising the stakes of possible retaliation considerably in the event of any attack. There also is no Asian equivalent of Israel, whose relentless attacks on Iranian missile defenses in the opening days of the war paved the way for the B-2 bombers to fly in and out without a shot being fired at them. Still, the possibility of the U.S. becoming involved in a conflict involving either China or North Korea is a very real one, and Beijing and Pyongyang will almost certainly try to assess what the notoriously unpredictable Trump would do. North Korea will likely be 'quite alarmed' at what Israel, with a relatively small but high-quality force, has been able to achieve over Iran, said Joseph Dempsey, a defense expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. At the same time, it likely will be seen internally as justification for its own nuclear weapons program, 'If Iran did have deployable nuclear weapons would this have occurred?' Dempsey said. 'Probably not.' The U.S. decision to attack while still in talks with Iran will also not go unnoticed, said Hong Min, a senior analyst at South Korea's Institute for National Unification. 'North Korea may conclude that dialogue, if done carelessly, could backfire by giving the United States a pretext for possible aggression,' he said. 'Instead of provoking the Trump administration, North Korea is more likely to take an even more passive stance toward negotiations with Washington, instead focusing on strengthening its internal military buildup and pursuing closer ties with Russia, narrowing the prospects for future talks," he said. China will look at the attacks through the visor of Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island off its coast that China claims as its own territory and President Xi Jinping has not ruled out taking by force. The U.S. supplies Taiwan with weapons and is one of its most important allies, though Washington's official policy on whether it would come to Taiwan's aid in the case of a conflict with China is known as 'strategic ambiguity," meaning not committing to how it would respond. Militarily, the strike on Iran raises the question of whether the U.S. might show less restraint than has been expected by China in its response and hit targets on the Chinese mainland in the event of an invasion of Taiwan, said Drew Thompson, senior fellow with the Singapore-based think tank RSIS Rajaratnam School of International Studies. It will also certainly underscore for Beijing the 'difficulty of predicting Trump's actions,' he said. "The U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities caught many by surprise," Thompson said. "I think it demonstrated a tolerance and acceptance of risk in the Trump administration that is perhaps surprising.' It also gives rise to a concern that Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, who in recent speeches has increased warnings about the threat from China, may be further emboldened in his rhetoric, said Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Washington-based foreign policy think tank Defense Priorities. Already, Lai's words have prompted China to accuse him of pursuing Taiwanese independence, which is a red line for Beijing. Goldstein said he worried Taiwan may try to take advantage of the American 'use of force against Iran to increase its deterrent situation versus the mainland.' 'President Lai's series of recent speeches appear almost designed to set up a new cross-strait crisis, perhaps in the hopes of building more support in Washington and elsewhere around the Pacific,' said Goldstein, who also is director of the China Initiative at Brown University's Watson Institute. 'I think that is an exceedingly risky gambit, to put it mildly," he said.

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