Will Phil predict an early spring this Groundhog Day?
Phil's faithful followers travel far and wide and on the big day wait for hours in subfreezing temperatures to experience the more than century-old tradition of a groundhog's heralded appearance at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney.
Last year, Phil
GHD dates back to the 19th century
According to some historians, Groundhog Day dates back to the mid-1800s and has European roots.
'The groundhog tradition stems from beliefs associated with Candlemas Day and the days of early Christians in Europe, and for centuries the custom was to have the clergy bless candles and distribute them to the people,' the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club
A reference was found in an 1841 diary to groundhog weather forecasts in early February among families of German descent in Morgantown, Pa., according to the late Don Yoder, a University of Pennsylvania professor whose 2003 book about Groundhog Day explored the Celtic connection. The annual ritual stuck and keeps going to this day.
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This quirky, fun-loving tradition exploded in popularity with the 1993 release of the classic comedy film 'Groundhog Day' starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell.
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Being the original forecasting rodent, Phil has gotten to hog most of the limelight associated with predicting the weather. But over the years, many other states have turned to their own weather-forecasting critters.
Forecast calls for clouds in Western Pa.
Chances are so-so that Phil will see his shadow this year. In fact, he's seen it more often than not, based on historical records.
'If you go by statistics and history, about 80 percent of the time it's, 'My shadow I see, so six more weeks of winter it will be,'' said Thomas Dunkel, president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. 'But you never know. In the last 10 years, we've had more 'no shadows' than we have had in any 10-year period of the Groundhog Club.'
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-20s around sunrise Sunday in Punxsutawney. High pressure will linger over Western Pennsylvania which will help hold off precipitation for the big event. Brisk wind gusts up to 20 miles per hour will send the wind chills into the teens.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at sunrise in Punxsutawney, Pa.
Boston Globe
How accurate is Phil?
But just how accurate are these members of the squirrel family? Ms. G's handlers say she's been on target 64 percent of the time.
Phil? Well, not
that
much.
A
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Researchers said that no one groundhog predicted the arrival of spring with any 'statistical significance.'
NOAA's
Last winter, for example, Phil predicted an early spring. But New England had it's fair share of snowfall in March and even some snow in early April.
Longer winter or not, this season has so far been colder and snowier than last winter for New Englanders, although we're still continuing the overall trend of mild winters New England has seen over recent decades.
'This winter has been much closer to a typical winter season across the region, with more pockets of cold air moving through the region and producing more snowfall,' said Globe lead meteorologist Ken Mahan. 'It's been much closer to an average winter with temperatures at or slightly below average, a big difference from last year's record pace.
'Looking into February, we'll most likely see an active weather pattern, especially across interior New England, with more snow and some rain.'
Phil has become a dad
Phil and his mate Phyllis welcomed two furry babies soon after last year's Groundhog Day. They could eventually serve as the next prognosticators.
Punxsutawney Phil's newborns in April 2024.
Punxsutawney Groundhog Club
Punxsutawney Phil's two babies as seen in May 2024.
Punxsutawney Groundhog Club
Marianne Mizera can be reached at
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