Pro-Trump nationalist Nawrocki wins Poland's presidential election, rattling Europe's unity

Straits Times

2 days ago

Incoming Polish President Karol Nawrocki is a national conservative determined to obstruct the liberal agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. PHOTO: REUTERS
– Just two years after the liberals triumphed in Poland's parliamentary elections, the country is once again shifting sharply to the right.
Mr Karol Nawrocki, the winner of the June 1 presidential election, is a national conservative determined to obstruct the liberal agenda of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
His victory not only jeopardises Poland's fragile return to democratic norms and rule of law but also delivers a serious blow to the European Union's (EU) unity.
While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, the president wields significant power in key areas, including the right to veto legislation. This applies to judicial reforms, budget laws and military appointments. Although a presidential veto can be overridden by a three-fifths parliamentary majority, the current liberal coalition under Mr Tusk does not hold enough seats to do so.
'For the European Union, Mr Nawrocki's win is especially troubling because of the political chaos that is likely to follow in Poland. Mr Tusk's government will now be forced to focus on domestic infighting and the de facto start of the 2027 parliamentary campaign, leaving it little room to act on the European stage,' Dr Agnieszka Lada-Konefal, the deputy director of the German Poland Institute, said in an interview with The Straits Times.
Just weeks ago, EU members France, Germany and Poland, alongside Britain, had demonstrated a new alignment in their policy on the war in Ukraine. During a joint visit to Kyiv in May, the leaders reaffirmed their support for the country invaded by Russia in 2022, and presented a united front in contrast to the increasingly erratic foreign policy signals from Washington.
US President Donald Trump, through repeated softening of his demands on Russian President Vladimir Putin, has raised doubts about the US' reliability as a Nato partner and an ally of Ukraine, leaving much of Europe feeling strategically isolated.
Ahead of the election, Washington had actively supported Mr Nawrocki. Not only did Mr Trump welcome the then candidate to the White House in early May, but US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem also openly endorsed him, calling Mr Nawrocki 'a leader as strong as Trump himself', and stating that he 'must become Poland's next president'.
Such declarations carry weight in Poland, where the US has long been seen as the country's ultimate protector – often more trusted than the EU.
Years of anti-German rhetoric from the political right have also left a mark. These parties accuse Germany of trying to dominate its eastern neighbour, continue to demand massive war reparations from Berlin and label Poland's liberals as overly pro-German.
Narrow margin reflects polarisation of the nation
Mr Nawrocki's victory, with just 50.9 per cent of the vote, came thanks to strong support not only from the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, but also from parties positioned even further to the right. He narrowly defeated liberal challenger Rafal Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.1 per cent.
Voting patterns reveal a starkly divided country of more than 38 million. Liberal forces dominate Poland's western regions – particularly those bordering Germany – while the east, more rural and conservative, remains a stronghold of nationalist support.
Mr Tusk and his coalition have failed to win over voters in these regions, despite initiating a political turnaround after defeating the PiS government in 2023.
That government, in power from 2015 to 2023, had heavily politicised the judiciary and media, undermining democratic institutions.
Brussels responded at the time with serious concerns over Poland's rule of law, imposing sanctions after the PiS introduced a disciplinary chamber to the Polish Supreme Court that could punish judges viewed as politically inconvenient.
On the race leading up to the presidential polls on June 1, Dr Lada-Konefal said: 'This was a deeply personal campaign. It was less about policy and more about a bitter battle between two political camps.'
She added: 'The election confirmed the consolidation of the right – a trend we're seeing elsewhere in Europe and in the US.'
That consolidation means that even candidates like Mr Nawrocki – largely unknown, politically inexperienced, and dogged by scandals – can succeed.
Allegations against him include shady real estate deals, links to prostitution and involvement in organised street brawls.
Yet, much like Mr Trump, these controversies appear to not have affected his standing. The fragmented Polish right rallied behind Mr Nawrocki.
A historian by training, Mr Nawrocki, 42, comes from a working-class neighbourhood in the northern port city of Gdansk. His father was a lathe operator and an amateur boxer. This modest background appeals to voters who feel alienated from the urban liberal elite.
In contrast, Mr Trzaskowski, 53, has served as Warsaw mayor since 2018, and the liberal parties are perceived by many as representing the academic and cultural establishment.
Sociologist Lukasz Pawlowski explained this sentiment in a recent interview with the national newspaper Gazeta. He said: 'There is a new top-down polarisation that is being accelerated by a global storm of discontent. Frustration with the establishment is especially high among 18- to 39-year-olds. Both major parties, the liberal Civic Platform and the conservative PiS, are seen as representing the upper classes – certainly not the working class, particularly in the eyes of young voters.'
While Mr Nawrocki's political programme remains vague, several tendencies are already clear: He is expected to pursue a pro-US, anti-German, and hardline migration policy.
He has repeatedly criticised the presence of the more than one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland, accusing them of draining social services and exploiting the healthcare system through what he called 'medical tourism'.
In using this politically loaded term, Mr Nawrocki is alleging that Ukrainians travel back and forth between Ukraine and Poland to take advantage of Poland's healthcare system, creating longer waiting times for Polish citizens.
Moreover, Mr Nawrocki, although generally supportive of Ukraine, opposes Kyiv's accession to Nato and the EU until Ukraine officially acknowledges responsibility for a 1943 massacre in western Ukraine of Poles during World War II.
However, he has also clearly positioned himself against Russia.
Setting a path away from Europe
For Europe, Mr Nawrocki's election is disconcerting news.
'Mr Nawrocki's presidency has set the country on a path away from Europe,' said Ms Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of the Warsaw office of the think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Although Poland will maintain its commitment to the US and its role on Nato's Eastern Flank, 'the liberal Tusk government will only be able to maintain Poland in the core group of European countries for another two years at best', she added.
'Nawrocki will constrain Tusk's long-term European project of pivoting Poland away from over-reliance on the US,' she said.
Ms Prochwicz Jazowska also expects more anti-European, anti-German and anti-migration rhetoric in public discourse.
Mr Nawrocki's proximity to the US also suggests he may align with Washington's more confrontational stance on China.
Although he has not spoken directly about China, he is unlikely to support the more pragmatic engagement pursued by previous Polish governments – particularly within the framework of the '16+1' initiative, which links China to central and eastern European countries.
In recent years, China's growing ties with Russia and its tacit support for Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine have led to a cooling of this cooperation.
Markus Ziener is a professor at Media University Berlin and writes on political and security issues.
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