Asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of colliding with Earth drop near zero
Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, deemed the riskiest asteroid on record last week, now has nearly a zero percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency.
NASA estimates that the space rock has a 0.0017% chance of hitting Earth in December 2032, while the ESA has a similar risk assessment of 0.002%.
That's a 1 in 59,000 possibility of impact, meaning there is a 99.9983% chance that the asteroid will safely zip by Earth in seven years, according to NASA. The agency also shared that the new data suggested that the asteroid had a 1.7% chance of hitting the moon, but those slight odds of impact do not pose a risk to Earth.
'When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032,' the agency shared on Monday.
'As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted to the Minor Planet Center, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on Dec. 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.'
Over the weekend, the asteroid also dropped to a ranking of 0 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with Earth. The ranking indicates 'the likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.'
Asteroid 2024 YR4, detected by telescopes on December 27, 2024, is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, comparable to a large building, and could cause local devastation if it were to collide with our planet.
The quick de-escalation of the asteroid's risk assessment is thanks to 'unsung, meticulous work by astronomers' who conducted a steady stream of follow-up observations of the space rock using telescopes across the globe, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the Torino Scale. Binzel is a professor of planetary sciences, joint professor of aerospace engineering and MacVicar Faculty Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
'I'm pleasantly surprised that we could reduce the probability numbers so quickly,' Binzel said. 'It would not have done anyone any good to have this probability hang around for a long time because it was going to go to zero. The reason I say it was going to go to zero is at the end of the day, the probability is either zero and it misses you, or it's one and it hits you. Any number in between is just the space of your uncertainty. We didn't want us to have to sit in that time and space of uncertainty for months and months.'
Early last week, 2024 YR4 briefly broke a record once reached by the asteroid Apophis after it was first spotted in 2004.
At its peak threat level, 2024 YR4 reached a 3 on the Torino Scale and had an estimated 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to NASA. The ESA's observations reached a peak of a 2.8% risk.
The narrow difference was due to the two agencies' use of different tools for determining the asteroid's orbit and modeling its potential impact. But both percentages rose above the 2.7% chance of collision once associated with Apophis, making 2024 YR4 the most significant space rock to be spotted within the past two decades.
However, as with Apophis, astronomers expected the risk for 2024 YR4 to spike and then fall to zero as they obtained more observational data to reduce uncertainties about the asteroid's path.
Measuring 1,148 feet (350 meters) in diameter, Apophis was previously considered one of the most hazardous asteroids, with a chance of hitting our planet and reaching a 4 out of 10 on the Torino Scale. The rating meant that the asteroid merited astronomers' attention and tracking. Apophis reached a 4 because it was a larger object capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 garnered a 3 because it would cause local damage, Binzel said.
But like 2024 YR4, Apophis also quickly dropped from a 4 to a 0 on the Torino Scale after astronomers spotted archival observations of the asteroid that more precisely clarified its orbit. While Apophis is still set to make a close flyby of Earth in 2029 that will be studied by multiple spacecraft, it poses no risk to Earth within this century.
The biggest obstacle astronomers face when trying to determine the risk posed by newly discovered asteroids is calculating the unknowns. In the case of 2024 YR4, that includes the space rock's size as well as its orbit.
Observations taken during the dark skies necessary for ground-based telescopes to track faint, small asteroids after February's full moon, which shone brightly in the night sky on February 12, helped astronomers quickly decrease the risk assessment for 2024 YR4.
Key telescopes have included the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the Subaru Telescope and Haleakala-Faulkes Telescope North, all located in the Hawaiian Islands, as well as New Mexico's Magdalena Ridge Observatory, the Gemini South Observatory in the Chilean Andes, Arizona's Lowell Discovery Telescope and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands.
'The atmosphere above Maunakea tends to be very stable, and it enables telescopes to produce very sharp images, sharper than most other observatory locations,' said David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, in a statement.
The likelihood of 2024 YR4's impact has dropped just in time. Astronomers were concerned because the space rock's trajectory, carrying it away from Earth in a straight line, meant the asteroid would be out of reach of ground-based telescopes in April and wouldn't reappear until June 2028.
However, astronomers plan to remain vigilant in observing the space rock to ensure that 2024 YR4 poses no risk, and the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to observe the asteroid in early March to pin down more details about its orbit and exact size.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Digital Trends
4 hours ago
- Digital Trends
NASA astronaut's first ISS time-lapse is a real stunner
NASA astronaut Jonny Kim has shared his first-ever time-lapse from aboard the International Space Station (ISS) — and it's a real stunner. The dramatic 68-second clip shows a changing view of Earth as the space-based facility orbits our planet at an altitude of about 250 miles. Recommended Videos 'My first time-lapse,' Kim wrote in a social media post that included the video (below). Kim said he managed to nail it thanks to some time-lapse tips shared by fellow astronaut Nichole Ayers. 'After seeing the result, I told her this felt like fishing,' Kim wrote. 'Prepping the camera, the angle, the settings, the mount, then setting your timer and coming back to hope you got a catch. And after catching my first fish, I think I'm hooked.' My first time-lapse. Thanks to some instruction and tips from @Astro_Ayers, I caught my first aurora. After seeing the result, I told her this felt like fishing. Prepping the camera, the angle, the settings, the mount, then setting your timer and coming back to hope you got a… — Jonny Kim (@JonnyKimUSA) June 6, 2025 The video shows the space station flying into the night, with city lights in Asia and Australia visible far below, and bright stars shining in the far distance. A short while later, a gorgeous aurora appears over the horizon before filling much of the frame. Toward the end of the clip, one of the station's solar arrays also come into view. Auroras are natural light displays in Earth's sky, caused by charged particles from the sun colliding with the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere. While also viewable from parts of Earth, astronauts on the ISS can also enjoy a unique view of this natural wonder. Indeed, for most astronauts, witnessing auroras is one of the highlights of their time in orbit. Earlier this year, another NASA astronaut, Don Pettit, shared a dramatic view of an aurora, captured as the ISS flew directly over it. Kim arrived at the space station with two Russian cosmonauts after launching aboard a Soyuz spacecraft in April this year. With another four months of his mission left to run, hopefully the American will have time to create more clips similar to his first outstanding effort.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
NASA raises the odds that an asteroid could hit the moon in 2032
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest impact risk to Earth ever recorded, is back in the spotlight — this time due to a slight increase in the chance that it could impact the moon in 2032. Although now too distant to observe from Earth, the asteroid briefly came into view in May for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Using data from the telescope's Near-Infrared Camera, a team led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory refined predictions of where 2024 YR4 will be on Dec. 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. That revised trajectory nudged the odds of a lunar impact from 3.8% to 4.3%, according to a NASA update. "As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve," the statement read. Even if a collision occurs, "it would not alter the moon's orbit." Astronomer Pawan Kumar, a former researcher at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bengaluru, agrees the moon is safe, noting a collision with the moon "won't be a cause for concern" because any moon debris blasted into space from the impact "blow up in Earth's atmosphere if any of it makes it to near-Earth space." First detected on Dec. 27 last year, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 174 to 220 feet long (53 to 67 meters), or about the size of a 10-story building. The asteroid quickly grabbed headlines for having more than a 1% chance of striking Earth, the highest recorded for any large asteroid. Follow-up observations in January and February saw the impact risk climb from 1.2% to a peak of 3.1%. The asteroid's projected trajectory at the time suggested it could cause blast damage across a wide potential impact zone, spanning the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa and southern Asia. If it enters Earth's atmosphere over the ocean, NASA estimated it would be unlikely to trigger significant tsunamis, but an airburst over a populated city could shatter windows and cause minor structural damage. However, the impact risk dropped sharply as additional orbital data came in. By Feb. 19, the probability had fallen to 1.5%, and then to 0.3% the next day. On Feb. 24, NASA announced an official "all clear" on social media, reporting the impact probability had dropped to just 0.004% and that the asteroid is "expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032." Further analysis has since allowed scientists to rule out any risk to Earth, not only in 2032 but from all future close approaches as well. Data from telescopes in Chile and Hawaii recently suggested the space rock originated in the central main belt between Mars and Jupiter and gradually shifted into a near-Earth orbit. Since mid-April, the asteroid has been too far away and too faint to be seen from Earth. It will swing back into view in 2028, giving scientists another chance to observe the asteroid and further refine its orbit using both JWST and ground-based telescopes. In particular, scientists will aim to gather more data on its shape and composition, which are key factors in understanding both its behavior and potential impact effects. RELATED STORIES — Odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 just went up. Here's why experts say you shouldn't worry — Asteroid apocalypse: How big must a space rock be to end human civilization? — Astronomers discover 196-foot asteroid with 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032 While 2024 YR4 no longer poses any danger, it provided scientists with a rare, real-world opportunity to rehearse the full scope of planetary defense strategy, ranging from initial detection and risk analysis to public messaging. It was "an actual end-to-end exercise" for how we might respond to a potentially hazardous asteroid in the future, said Kumar. "2024 YR4 is a tailor-made asteroid for planetary defense efforts," he said. "It has everything it takes to get our attention."
Yahoo
7 hours ago
- Yahoo
12-mile-tall volcano on Mars punches through clouds
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. A bit after sunrise on June 6, 2025, NASA's 2001 Mars Odyssey orbiter saw one of Mars' biggest volcanoes, Arsia Mons, as it broke through the clouds. The volcano is the cloudiest of the Tharsis volcanoes, a trio that is tightly aligned on Mars' surface. Standing at over 12 miles (20 kilometers) with a diameter of 270 miles (450km), Arsia Mons is nearly twice as high as Mauna Loa, Earth's largest volcano, which sits at 6 miles (9 kilometers) from the seafloor. Due to its height, Arsia Mons is often covered by clouds that form when expanded air that was blown up the sides of the volcano rapidly cools. These clouds can be especially thick during aphelion, a period where Mars is farthest from the sun in its orbit. Clouds that form during this time at the planet's equator are known as the aphelion cloud belt, according to NASA. Arsia Mons is the southernmost volcano in a trio called the Tharsis Montes, or the Tharsis mountains, which are located in Mars' western hemisphere near its equator. The alignment of the Tharsis volcanoes suggests that a large fracture may have been responsible for the eruptions that formed all three volcanoes, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). To the northwest of the group stands Olympus Mons, the biggest volcano in the solar system, at 16 miles (25 kilometers) high. Because of its cloud cover, Arsia Mons has been hard to photograph. This new image from NASA's 2001 Mars Odyssey orbiter gives a first-of-its kind view at the peak of the volcano. The picture is also the first time any of the three Tharsis volcanoes has been captured on the horizon, offering a similar perspective as what astronauts see from the International Space Station when they view Earth, according to NASA. Unlike other regions of the planet, the clouds that surround this volcano are made of water ice, which remains in Mars' atmosphere most of the year. In fact, the Martian atmosphere contains more water vapor than the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, according to JPL. Other areas of Mars contain dust storms made of carbon dioxide clouds. Studying these cloud formations helps experts to better understand how storms form and occur on the Red Planet. You can read more about Martian volcanoes and cloud storms as scientists dive further into the features of our planetary neighbor.
