The Reason Economists Are Worried About Trump's Labor Statistics Choices

New York Times

20 hours ago

How many commissioners of the Bureau of Labor Statistics can you name? For the vast majority of people (and even most economists) the answer would be zero. And for good reason. While several highly accomplished and effective people have served in that role over the years, it is fundamentally about making sure the plumbing of our data infrastructure is working. Most of us just accept that the data is the best possible estimate of the economy — just as we do not think much about where our water comes from, we simply drink it — and instead argue about much harder and less objective questions, like whether inflation is transitory or job growth is trending toward recession.
Unfortunately, that could change if the Senate confirms President Trump's pick, E.J. Antoni, to be the next B.L.S. commissioner.
When Mr. Trump abruptly fired the B.L.S. commissioner after negative jobs number revisions earlier this month, he wrote on social media that he would find someone 'much more competent and qualified' for the post. He is proposing replacing Erika McEntarfer, a highly respected economist with decades of experience working at the U.S. Census Bureau and elsewhere, with a partisan favored for the job by Steve Bannon.
Mr. Antoni's posts that have shown apparent misunderstandings of import prices and the baby boom retirement have gotten the most attention and criticism, along with his statement before the nomination that the monthly jobs report should be suspended.
But even more egregious, as Alan Cole, an economist the right-leaning Tax Foundation, has pointed out, is that in October 2024 Mr. Antoni took the time to publish a report that purported to find that 'the American economy has actually been in recession since 2022.' This claim was based on a concept of 'adjusted real' disposable income, which was down about 2 percent from 2019 to 2024 — in contrast to the official data, which showed real disposable income up 12 percent over this period. The problem was his measure effectively double-counted housing inflation, making the inflation rate artificially higher and growth artificially lower.
Mr. Antoni's selection has done something I have rarely seen, which is to unite a number of economists and policy wonks from across the political spectrum. The American Enterprise Institute's Stan Veuger told The Washington Post that 'he is utterly unqualified and as partisan as it gets.' Similar sentiments were echoed by people affiliated with conservative and libertarian think tanks, in a Wall Street Journal editorial and a National Review article.
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