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Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
How will you die? Scientists reveal the odds of being killed by everything from an asteroid strike to an elephant attack
From asteroid impacts to elephant attacks, there are plenty of nasty ways to die that might keep you up at night. Now, scientists have revealed just how much you need to worry about each of these potential disasters. The bad news is that death by asteroid strike is much more likely than you might have thought. According to physicists from the Olin College of Engineering, the average person is significantly more likely to be killed by a space rock than to be struck by lightning. Using the latest NASA data, physicists from the Olin College of Engineering found that there are 22,800 near-earth objects (NEOs) measuring 140 metres or larger. Assuming that an impact will kill one in 1,000 people, your odds of being dying in a collision with a space rock are one in 156,000. By contrast, the odds of being killed by a lightning strike are just one in 163,000. However, if it is any comfort, scientists say you are far more likely to be killed in a car crash long before that ever happens. Scientists have worked out exactly how likely you are to die to everything from asteroid impacts to elephant attacks. This table shows how likely these events are to happen, and how likely you are to die as a result The bad news is that you are much more likely to be killed by an asteroid impact than by a lightning strike. Although car crashes are far more deadly on average According to the researchers, each year there is a 0.0091 per cent chance that a 140-metre or larger asteroid will slam into the Earth. That means there is a staggeringly high one in 156 chance of the Earth being struck by an asteroid within any given person's lifetime. If that were to happen, the blast could be thousands of times larger than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. In the worst-case scenario, a large enough asteroid could produce global events on a civilisation-ending scale. In their pre-print paper, soon to be published in the Planetary Science Journal, the researchers write: 'The dust lofting alone has the potential, in some cases, to obscure the sun to the point of stopping photosynthesis, which would then cause a mass extinction.' However, a 140-metre asteroid might land harmlessly in the ocean and cause no deaths, or slam into a populated city and kill up to one million people. To reflect this, the researchers say that the risk of death by asteroid ranges from essentially zero to near certainty based on a number of factors. To help put the odds of an asteroid death in perspective, the researchers also worked out how likely you are to die in a host of other ways. In their study, the researchers calculated both how likely it is that these events will happen to someone in their lifetime and how likely they are to die in that scenario. Their calculations suggest that the odds of being struck by lightning are just one in 16,300, which is only fatal in around one in 10 cases. Likewise, according to a study conducted in Nepal, the odds of being attacked by an elephant are about one in 14,000. Since those attacks are fatal around two-thirds of the time, your odds of being killed by an elephant are a surprisingly high one in 21,000. This analysis also reveals that, compared to the risk of an asteroid impact, many parts of our everyday lives are absurdly dangerous. The researchers found that the average person has a roughly one in 66 chance of suffering carbon monoxide poisoning, and a one in 714 chance of dying as a result. Likewise, the flu is much more likely to kill you than an asteroid impact, lightning strike, or elephant attack. Killing roughly one in 1,000 people, the flu is about as deadly as an impact from a 140-metre asteroid, but you are almost guaranteed to catch it at some point in your life. How likely is it that someone will be killed by space junk? Researchers calculated that the chance of a piece of rocket body hitting a plane was one in 430,000 each year. Given that there are around 200 people per plane, this gives a fatality risk of one in 2,200. Previous studies have estimated a higher risk due to debris breaking up and satellites falling to Earth. The Aerospace Corporation says the risk of someone being killed by space debris while on a plane is one in 1,000. Other studies estimate that the chances of one or more people being killed on the ground by falling space debris in the next ten years is one in 10. Yet it is driving that turns out to be one of the biggest risks to our lives, with a third of people being involved in an injury-causing crash at some point in their lives. Given that those crashes are deadly in around one in 100 cases, the odds of being killed in a car crash are roughly one in 273. You are, therefore, more than 500 times more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than by a deadly asteroid. On the other hand, some seemingly terrifying risks turn out to be hardly a threat at all. Death by rabies, for example, is almost entirely preventable through a vaccine called post-exposure prophylaxis. Of the 800,000 Americans who sought treatment for rabies following an animal bite, only five died - four of whom did not seek rabies post-exposure prophylaxis treatment. Of course, these probabilities are dependent on where you live and what kind of life you lead. If you don't live near elephants or refuse to jump out of a plane, you are very unlikely to die in an elephant attack or skydiving accident. Likewise, the researchers point out that someone who regularly checks their carbon monoxide alarms has a much lower chance of being killed by carbon monoxide poisoning. The point of doing these morbid calculations is that asteroid impacts are, like rabies deaths, entirely avoidable in theory. The researchers write: 'The asteroid impact is the only natural disaster that is technologically preventable.' In 2022, NASA's DART mission showed that humanity can knock an approaching asteroid off course by hitting it with a fast-moving satellite. However, these missions require years of planning and huge amounts of investment. By comparing the risk posed by asteroids to threats we face every day, we can decide if it is worth investing millions in a new space defence program or whether we should be more worried about improving road safety. WHAT COULD WE DO TO STOP AN ASTEROID COLLIDING WITH EARTH? Currently, NASA would not be able to deflect an asteroid if it were heading for Earth but it could mitigate the impact and take measures that would protect lives and property. This would include evacuating the impact area and moving key infrastructure. Finding out about the orbit trajectory, size, shape, mass, composition and rotational dynamics would help experts determine the severity of a potential impact. However, the key to mitigating damage is to find any potential threat as early as possible. NASA and the European Space Agency completed a test which slammed a refrigerator-sized spacecraft into the asteroid Dimorphos. The test is to see whether small satellites are capable of preventing asteroids from colliding with Earth. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) used what is known as a kinetic impactor technique—striking the asteroid to shift its orbit. The impact could change the speed of a threatening asteroid by a small fraction of its total velocity, but by doing so well before the predicted impact, this small nudge will add up over time to a big shift of the asteroid's path away from Earth. This was the first-ever mission to demonstrate an asteroid deflection technique for planetary defence. The results of the trial are expected to be confirmed by the Hera mission in December 2026.
The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Study shows genes contribute to chance of developing debilitating disease
A new study, DecodeME, has found significant DNA differences in people with ME / chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), offering the first robust evidence that genes contribute to developing the serious disease. Researchers identified eight distinct areas of genetic code in ME/CFS patients that are markedly different from those without the condition, primarily involving genes linked to the immune and nervous systems. At least two of the genetic signals relate to how the body responds to infection, aligning with long-standing patient reports that the onset of ME/CFS symptoms often follows an infectious illness. The findings are expected to boost credibility for ME/CFS patients, helping to rebuff the stigma and lack of belief often associated with the condition. The DecodeME study, described as the world's largest of its kind, analysed DNA samples from over 15,000 participants. The key genetic difference ME sufferers have from others – and what it means
Daily Mail
3 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Bupa boosted by elderly care and UK private health boom
Bupa's bottom line was bolstered by income from its elderly care home arm and growing demand for private healthcare in the first half, driving significant profit growth. The health, insurance and nursing home business saw its underlying group pre-tax profit rise 41 per cent to £480million over the first six months of the year, as revenues jumped 11 per cent to £8.8billion. It came as occupancy across its aged care arm climbed to 94 per cent globally, up 1 percentage point on a year ago. In Britain higher revenue was propelled by higher premiums 'driven by rate changes in response to higher claims', Bupa said. Across Britain, private healthcare is booming as millions of patients battle with long NHS waiting lists and struggle to access the right care or treatment they need. The firm's UK insurance arm delivered 'strong growth' in revenue for the period. Bupa's British insurance arm saw more than 149,000 net new customers sign up to either its medical insurance, health trusts, dental insurance and cash plan in the first half of 2025. The group said on Thursday: 'Higher premiums also contributed to the revenue growth driven by rate changes in response to higher claims. 'Underlying profit reduced, driven by a higher loss ratio, increased acquisition costs and additional investment to facilitate further growth.' Across Bupa's Global, India and UK operations, underlying profit rose by 89 per cent to £126million, driven by revenue growth, improved margins in provision and aged care. In Britain, the private healthcare business agreed terms to acquire the New Victoria Hospital in Surrey. The deal marks the group's first hospital acquisition in Britain since 2008. The acquisition is due to complete this summer. The business said its net cash stash generated from operating activities remained 'strong' at £869million, against £676million a year ago. Globally, Bupa's digital healthcare offering, Blua, now has 8.1million customers, the company said. Boss Iñaki Ereño added: 'We have served more customers than ever before, we have scaled Blua, our digital healthcare solution, and we have opened 61 new health provision sites around the world, giving our customers even more choice and convenience when it comes to accessing our healthcare services. 'We are building on the strong foundations that we have developed over the past four years. Bupa's new 3x100 Strategy is helping us to go further and faster to deliver our purpose and our ambition for Bupa to be the most customer-centric healthcare company in the world.' Until the end of September, Bupa UK is offering a free mini health check to individuals and couples who take out a new health insurance policy with the group. As part of the initiative, Bupa Health Clinics will provide the mini health check which gives an evidence-based snapshot of a person's health through a blood test covering a range of health markers such as lipid profiles and kidney, liver and thyroid function. If any abnormalities are discovered, customers will be offered a 15-minute consultation with a Bupa clinician to discuss their results and receive guidance on next steps. Policy terms apply and results will not affect underwriting. Customers can use their new Bupa health insurance policy to access further diagnostics, treatment or specialist care as needed, depending on the type of cover they have chosen. According to data from private healthcare analysts LaingBuisson earlier this year, the number of people covered by a private medical insurance policy in Britain hit a record high of 4.68million at the end of 2023. The data suggested the surge in the use of private healthcare meant the total value of all medical and dental cover reached a record £7.59billion by the end of 2023, up from £6.76billion the previous year.
