Caution urged amid major power tensions

Bangkok Post

2 days ago

Amid escalating tensions between the United States and China, experts are urging Thailand to navigate the geopolitical landscape cautiously, preserving national interests rather than following Washington's lead.
A forum, held recently by the International Media Club of Thailand (IMCT), highlighted China's rapid rise as a global competitor and the United States' mounting economic vulnerabilities.
Global pressure tactics led by Washington are pushing nations in the southern hemisphere to align with China, with even India showing signs of pivoting away from its traditional US-aligned posture.
Strategic interests matter
Thanong Khanthong, president of IMCT, said Thailand must safeguard its interests in this turbulent international landscape. "Thailand cannot afford to follow the United States blindly. Our approach must be grounded in negotiation and strategic leverage," he said.
He referred to high-profile meetings, including the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Analysts had previously estimated the chance of nuclear escalation in Eastern Europe at nearly 50 per cent. These moves, he argued, reflect broader global calculations, with China aiming to reduce European-Russian tensions and focus on countering US economic and technological dominance.
The US motivation, he added, is not military but economic. Over two decades, Washington has shifted from cooperation to rivalry with China, deploying hybrid warfare, trade restrictions, technological competition, cyber operations, and targeted tariffs aimed at containing Beijing's growth and preserving Western dominance.
"Currently, we are witnessing an almost multidimensional war between the United States and China, encompassing hybrid warfare, trade, technology, cyber operations, and targeted tariffs specifically aimed at undermining China," he said.
Economic pressures mount
China's rise is evident across multiple sectors. From high-speed rail networks and domestic aircraft production to renewable energy, electric vehicles, AI, and advanced smartphone and semiconductor manufacturing, Beijing steadily challenges Western monopolies, said Mr Thanong.
In response, the US has applied protective tariffs, aiming to weaken China and force other nations to negotiate on its terms. He said Thailand must resist becoming a pawn in a zero-sum game. He suggested exploring multilateral cooperation through emerging global frameworks such as Brics.
He warned that Trump's confrontation with Brics, where China plays a key role, is driving the group closer together. Even India is shifting. Coordinated action by China, India, and Russia, alongside digital currencies like the yuan or Brics Pay, could weaken US dollar dominance and alter global geopolitics..
"Thailand's future lies in joining multipolar economic systems, rather than remaining tethered to the US, designed Indo-Pacific strategies aimed at containing China militarily," he said.
Kraisin Vongsurakrai, deputy secretary-general of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, analysed Thailand's economic engines: domestic consumption, exports, government spending, and foreign investment, all currently showing weakness. Tourism provides temporary support but cannot offset structural vulnerabilities. He also noted that much foreign investment in Thailand originates indirectly from China, though political instability remains a concern for investors.
Multilateral approach
The forum also explored global trade dynamics. In 2022, the US restricted collaboration with China on advanced technology, while China pursued its Belt and Road Initiative, established trusted domestic brands, and developed cutting-edge AI and space capabilities, said Mr Kraisin.
Chinese performance is approaching US levels, prompting Washington to impose restrictions on international support for Beijing's space and technological ambitions, he said.
"China's sustained investment in Thailand, alongside Brics' growing economic influence, offers Bangkok opportunities to engage with a shifting multipolar world rather than rely exclusively on Western partnerships," he said.
Brics' global economic share has overtaken the G7, rising from 16.9 per cent in 1995 to 31.2 per cent in 2023. Brazil's announcement to reduce reliance on the US dollar underscores the systemic shifts reshaping global finance.
Against this backdrop, Thailand faces US tariffs, restrictive Chinese import levies, and trade pressures that constrain flexibility, making strategic negotiation essential.
Mr Kraisin said Thailand's private sector alone cannot manage these challenges. He urged government intervention to coordinate industrial policy and mitigate inequality. This would enhance resilience and provide a platform for negotiating from strength in regional and global arenas.
"This year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China. The business sector has organised activities and launched the China Enterprises Association, comprising around 400 reputable Chinese investors in Thailand, supported by the Chinese embassy.
"The aim is to reduce the shady business of Chinese operations in Thailand. It is time for legitimate Chinese businesses to step forward and help phase out the grey operations," he said.
Looking ahead
As the US and China continue a multidimensional rivalry, Thailand must carefully balance its alignment. Overreliance on Washington risks exposure to trade and geopolitical conflicts, while ignoring Beijing could jeopardise growth and stability, he said. The panellists emphasised that Bangkok's strategy must centre on pragmatic negotiation, multilateral engagement, and domestic reforms.