Japan Election: Severe blow to PM Shigeru Ishiba as ruling coalition loses upper house majority — what we know so far

Mint

21-07-2025

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future was unclear on Monday after his coalition lost its majority in the upper house in Sunday's elections, which saw strong gains by a right-wing populist party.
It will mark the first time in the LDP's 70-year history that it leads a coalition that does not control either house, Japan's NHK media reported. Despite this, PM Ishiba indicated he intends to stay on in his role.
Here's all you need to know about Japan Elections:
As many as 248 members of the Upper House are elected for six-year terms. Elections are held every three years, with half of the seats up for grabs.
This time, there are 124 seats plus one extra to fill a vacancy, Japanese media NHK reported. It said 75 seats will be decided based on electoral districts. The remaining 50 seats will be filled by people elected through proportional representation from across Japan.
The ruling coalition needs a total of 125 seats for a majority. They already have 75 uncontested seats, but NHK projections suggest it may be difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito to get the additional 50 needed.
The cards are stacked against PM Ishiba, with all major opposition parties ruling out joining the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito in an expanded coalition.
According to reports, Ishiba's LDP and coalition partner Komeito returned 47 seats, short of the 50 seats it needed to ensure a majority in the 248-seat upper chamber in an election. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party finished second with 22 seats.
If the ruling bloc fails to get a majority, it would be the first time in the LDP's 70-year history for the party to lead a coalition that does not control either house of the Diet.
The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan's upper house election on Sunday. It, however, won't join coalition for now.
The party won 14 seats, up from one seat, giving it a significant presence in the upper house. It has only three seats in the more powerful lower house.
"Sanseito has become the talk of the town, and particularly here in America, because of the whole populist and anti-foreign sentiment. It's more of a weakness of the LDP and Ishiba than anything else," said Joshua Walker, head of the U.S. non-profit Japan Society.
Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition Sanseito party, Kamiya Sohei, said in an interview that he doesn't plan to join the ruling coalition at this point. He expressed concern that Sanseito's tiny size renders it liable to be crushed if it becomes part of the ruling bloc.
The party broke into mainstream politics with its "Japanese First" campaign. It gained support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending.
It was born on YouTube in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, Reuters reported.
While the ballot does not directly determine whether Ishiba's minority government falls, it heaps pressure on the embattled leader, who also lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.
That comes on top of its worst showing in 15 years in October's lower house election, a vote which has left Ishiba's administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party for leadership change.
The result further weakens Ishiba's position just days before the country needs to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration to avert the imposition of punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
If Ishiba goes, it was unclear who might step up as the LDP's 11th premier since 2000 now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers.
'Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it's not clear who will be the successor,' Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told Agence France-Presse.
Speaking late on Sunday evening after exit polls closed, Ishiba told NHK he "solemnly" accepted the "harsh result".
"We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States...we must never ruin these negotiations. It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests," he later told TV Tokyo.
His statement came as Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, faces a deadline of August 1 to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
Asked whether he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said: 'That's right. It's a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously.'
(With inputs from agencies)