South Asia's David vs Goliath

Express Tribune

02-06-2025

The recent Indo-Pak duel was an indicator of a worsening security dilemma in South Asia. Since 2016, New Delhi has adopted a policy of cost imposition on Islamabad for their support of the Kashmir cause. For Pakistan, the Kashmir cause is tied to its national fabric; for India, it remains a constant security concern. This issue is likely to persist despite India's show of military and conventional capability in 2019 and again in the early hours of May 7, 2025. The calculus among Indian strategists appears to be shifting towards a mix of vertical and horizontal escalation, designed to pressure Pakistan into accepting India's political, diplomatic and military primacy in the region. However, Pakistan's strategic culture is unlikely to shift, and in the case of direct confrontation, both countries are unlikely to back down. This increases the likelihood of more focus on hard security and balance-of-power politics in the region.
Around 1:30 AM on May 7, reports emerged of multiple strikes on locations in mainland Pakistan. An Indian PIB press release later confirmed the strikes were part of Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory mission following an insurgent attack in Pahalgam. The Indian media framed the operation in two ways: as a political victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and as a display of India's rising military influence. The strikes were conducted using Indian Air Force aerial assets, targeting nine locations with precision munitions, launched from within Indian airspace.
As the attack was underway, Pakistan reportedly initiated defensive measures, resulting in an air-to-air engagement between the PAF and IAF. Pakistan's ISPR claimed six Indian aircraft were downed. Even critical voices like Christine Fair considered it likely that at least two Dassault Rafales had been lost. This not only marked the loss of high-value equipment but also hurt India's military image.
Operation Sindoor, which was likely meant to be a strategic warning to Pakistan and a symbolic flex to Beijing, ended up escalating risks in the region. The seriousness of the situation became clear when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called a meeting of NCA - the body overseeing nuclear weapons policy. As tensions climbed, so began UAV-based surveillance missions from both sides to probe air-defence systems. Hours before Pakistan's anticipated response, the IAF launched another wave of strikes targeting airbases, including Nur Khan near Islamabad.
On May 10, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyanum Marsoos i.e. an unbreakable barrier. It targeted 27 locations inside India, three times the number hit by Operation Sindoor. The strike package included Fatah-1 short-range ballistic missiles, PAF aircraft, loitering munitions and cyber assets. The goal was to reject any idea of a "new normal" and re-establish strategic balance with India. This response was calculated, rapid, and likely met its intended signal. The skirmish ended just as quickly as it escalated, with both sides claiming that the other had called for a ceasefire.
This confrontation was a focal event in South Asian security and Indo-Pak relations. It introduced new elements of escalation: drones, cyberattacks and long-range standoff munitions. Both sides revealed parts of their strategic calculus. Operation Sindoor was disproportionate in scale for a response to a localised insurgent attack. Pakistan's retaliation, however, denied India any clear advantage and pushed back against claims of conventional superiority. Pakistan asserted it had downed six aircraft, destroyed an S-400 battery, and struck an Indian military HQ in Kashmir and a BrahMos facility. While such claims are debated, India's missteps were clear: underestimating Pakistan's willingness to respond; misreading its civil-military resolve; and believing further escalation would serve as deterrence.
For policymakers in Pakistan, the answer to Indian aggression may not lie only in conventional or nuclear means. Like David against Goliath, Pakistan must strike the sensors that give India an edge. Building electronic warfare, cyber tools and AI-enabled systems should be a priority. Pakistan also needs an information warfare strategy to counter Indian propaganda and project its own narrative clearly and credibly.