Trump takes step back from Philippines in South China Sea
It's an encouraging pivot from the Biden administration's approach, which escalated the US-China rivalry.
Last year, President Joe Biden was focused on the so-called 'latticework' of alliances in the Asia-Pacific, holding a trilateral summit with both Marcos and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan. The rather clear intention was to balance and even contain China's rise.
By contrast, while Trump did briefly praise the ongoing military exercises between the US and the Philippines, there was no mention of the trilateral initiatives with Japan. Instead, Trump seemed eager to tamp down the US-China rivalry, at least in the Philippines context.
There was only minimal discussion of tensions in the South China Sea and these came at the behest of Marcos. Trump reportedly 'professed that he didn't mind if the Philippines got along with China.'
Such a clear effort to defuse the US-China rivalry could simply reflect Trump's desire to secure a near-term summit with Chinese leader President Xi Jinping.
However, it might also reflect the new realism that's taken hold in his administration, one that favors a 'spheres of influence approach' to global affairs over the neoliberal paradigm promoted by the Biden administration.
Under Biden, the US was focused on safeguarding freedom of navigation and the law of the sea, a strategy that risked near-term escalation with China over meaningless rocks and reefs and fishing disputes.
The Philippines has been increasing its maritime capabilities, but it has little prospect of matching China frigate for frigate or cutter for cutter in those sensitive sea areas.
In fact, when Marcos did mention 'international law' and alluded to a country—plainly China—'that has intentions of unilaterally changing the world order,' Trump pointedly refused to respond in kind.
Instead, he immediately pivoted to the importance of positive US-China relations, saying, 'we're getting along with China really well.'
Trump also emphasized the crucial rare earth magnets exported by China and needed across many US industries, which are 'coming out now… in record numbers.' In this White House, it seems geoeconomics trumps geopolitics.
When Marcos again brought up the volatile South China Sea situation while discussing Philippines military modernization, Trump changed the topic to terrorism.
'Don't forget… Philippines were loaded up with ISIS and lots of terrorists,' he said, adding, 'we spent a lot of time and a lot of talent on going into the Philippines and wiping out terrorists.'
Trump went so far as to claim that 'During my [first] administration… we got [the terrorists] out, and now you really have a good solid country again.' It's worth pointing out that China also assisted the Philippines in this recent and bloody fight against terrorism, according to Manila.
Trump further hinted at the White House's new focus on spheres of influence when he explained, 'And the [Philippines] was maybe tilting toward China, but we un-tilted it very, very quickly.'
While realists will welcome the diminishing likelihood of a US-China war developing over rocks and reefs, an even more dangerous conflict still lurks. The situation in the Taiwan Strait—often tense—has become a powder keg waiting to explode, maybe even in the near term.
Here Trump seems much more cavalier. When asked by a reporter about 'the ammunitions hub that the US plans to build in Subic and the Luzon corridor' of the Philippines, Trump remarked that 'we'll have more ammunition than any country has ever had.'
The Philippines is a mere couple of hundred miles south of Taiwan and many US strategists are fixated on the country as a means of deterring or countering a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
If it comes to war in the Taiwan Strait, losses would be enormous on both sides. An authoritative wargame by the Center for Strategic and International Studies a couple of years ago said the US would likely lose two aircraft carriers in the first week of such a war and that's to say nothing of the real potential for nuclear escalation.
Nor is the Philippines likely to make a major difference in such a war, since its armed forces are weak and it would likely be attacked by China if it becomes involved in the conflict.
Trump is wise to play down the South China Sea conflict and focus on trade and counterterrorism with the Philippines. Wiser still would be a recognition that a spheres of influence approach should seek to detach the Philippines' future from the fate of Taiwan.
Lyle Goldstein is director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities.
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