Microsoft earnings are coming Wednesday. Here's what top analysts expect

CNBC

2 days ago

Microsoft is slated to release fiscal fourth-quarter results after the stock market's closing bell Wednesday, and most analysts are expecting another stellar quarter from the tech old guard. An LSEG survey shows that analysts, on average, anticipate that the "Magnificent Seven" member will earn $3.37 per share on $73.807 billion revenue. Those results would correspond to earnings growth of 14.2% year over year, as well as a 14% jump in revenue when compared with the prior-year period. The anticipated gains come after Microsoft posted a major earnings and revenue beat for its fiscal third quarter, helped by outperformance at its Azure cloud business. Revenue rose 13% year over year, while net income surged 18%. Since the start of 2025, shares of Microsoft have soared 22%. That compares with the S & P 500 's gain of 8% in the same time period. MSFT YTD mountain MSFT YTD chart Heading into earnings, most of Wall Street remains bullish on Microsoft. LSEG data shows that 56 analysts covering the stock rate it a strong buy or buy, while the remaining six assign it a hold rating. Here's what analysts at some of Wall Street's biggest banks are saying before Microsoft's latest earnings report. Morgan Stanley: Overweight rating and $530 price target Morgan Stanley's price target implies shares will rise 3% from here, based on Microsoft's Tuesday closing price of $512.57 per share. "Following strong Q3 results, investor sentiment has improved, pushing shares near all-time-highs. However, risk/reward remains attractive at ~29x GAAP FY27 EPS given strong potential to deliver a durable mid-to-high-teens total return profile, supported by leading GenAI positioning." Bernstein: Outperform rating and $540 price target Analyst Mark Moerdler's target would equate to a gain of 5% for the stock. "Q4FY25 earnings and the guidance commentary for FY26 are going to be very important as they set the stage for future growth. We believe that while expectations have improved Microsoft could surprise setting the stock up well." Stifel: Buy rating and $550 price target The firm's projection of where the stock should trade is 7% above its current price. "Management's ability to manage OPEX [operating expense] remains robust, and given recent layoffs and MSFT's focus on efficiency, we expect this trend to continue and offset gross-margin compression, that we believe should enable Microsoft to post continued double-digit operating income growth in FY26/beyond." Barclays: Overweight rating and $550 price target "We are expecting a healthy, but not overly exciting quarter for Microsoft, with end-demand looking stable against high expectations. The number again to watch will be Azure, and here we think there could be modest upside vs. Q4 guidance (34-35%) in cc, though struggle to flex the model beyond a 1pt beat in the quarter … We see modest upside, but against high expectations and recent share performance find the risk/reward underwhelming." Deutsche Bank: Buy rating and $550 price target "Microsoft shares have significantly outperformed since the company reported much better-than-expected F3Q Azure results in April and seem well supported heading into what we anticipate will be strong F4Q results on July 30th. We'd highlight a not overly demanding Azure setup, more resilient PC shipments, rebounding sentiment and activity post April tariff uncertainty as catalysts for revenue outperformance. Leverage to topline upside along with guidance for well above seasonal OpEx [operating expense] growth despite constrained headcount growth and AI savings also bode well for y/y operating margin expansion and EPS upside." Goldman Sachs: Buy rating and $550 price target "We reiterate our Buy rating and our $550 PT on Microsoft as we believe the company can execute well against our F4Q25 expectations for 15% revenue growth (Consensus 14%), 36%/35% USD/CC Azure growth (Consensus 35%/34%), and EPS of $3.39 (Consensus $3.37). These estimates are supported by our increasing confidence in Microsoft's ability to capture AI share while executing against its core businesses." TD Cowen: Buy rating and $580 price target Analyst Derrick Wood increased his price target to $580 from $540 earlier this month. This new forecast is 13% above Microsoft's Tuesday closing price. "While shares are hitting all-time highs, we think the story continues to grow increasingly attractive w/ MSFT positioned as a clear beneficiary in the AI cycle. Azure checks were strong, we're expecting capacity constraints to be easing, and our new bottoms-up model gives us confidence in Azure growth trending well above Street in the qtrs ahead." Cantor Fitzgerald: Buy rating and $581 price target Ahead of Microsoft's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $581, implying upside of over 13%. "Although we don't expect the same positive surprise from last quarter as it relates to Azure guided to accelerate growth amidst a trepid economic backdrop in April, we do expect overall momentum to continue with our checks mostly positive NT and more so regarding 2HC25. We expect this backdrop to support a positive outlook from Microsoft for F1Q26, supporting further multiple expansion we've seen industry-wide." Bank of America: Buy rating and $585 price target In a note from earlier this month, the bank lifted its price target to $585 from $515. This is roughly 14% above where shares of Microsoft closed on Tuesday. "On FY26, we are modeling revenue growth of 14%, holding with FY25 growth, as Azure becomes a greater mix of revenue, growing 30%+. We acknowledge potential downside to our FY26e margin of 45.5%, representing 30 basis points expansion. A flattish target is likely more reasonable, given ramping capex. We expect our FY26e capex of $99.1 billion to move higher, though remain largely consistent as a % of revenue at 31%." UBS: Buy rating and $600 price target UBS analyst Karl Keirstead also took the opportunity to boost his price target to $600 from $500. The bank's new forecast is 17% above Microsoft's Tuesday closing price. "Bottom line, the outlook on the two biggest factors driving Microsoft shares on prints — Azure growth and EPS revisions — appears to be positive." Jefferies: Buy rating and $613 price target The bank's $613 price target, raised from $605, corresponds to upside of nearly 20%. "We reiterate our bullish view into MSFT's F4Q results, anticipating another strong quarter of positive revisions and upside to Q4+Q1 Azure numbers. … Microsoft remains our top pick given the exposure to AI, quality of business model and long-term pricing/margin power that we view as nearly unmatched in enterprise software."