2025 Fantasy Football Strategy Tips: Kicker scoring is not random — here's why
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At the core of the notion to get rid of kickers is the myth that their output is totally random and unpredictable. Sure, there are some who got blasted by a 24-point performance from Chris Boswell to start the season in Week 1 last year or rode Nick Folk's 23-point leg to victory in Week 4. When those weeks happen, it's easy to blame it all on the 'randomness' of the kicker spot, but very few take the time to research and see that it may not be so capricious at all.
Trends to look for
First and foremost, streaming is your best bet in redraft leagues; the kicker that you click on or walk that sticker up to the board for is of very little significance other than your possible Week 1 guy.
What Happens in Vegas
We don't look to predict individual kicker components like field goal attempts, extra-point tries, or kick distances, as that would be somewhat futile. Instead, we turn to Las Vegas for kicker love in the form of team totals. The more points a team puts on the board, the more their kicker scores.
Kicker fantasy points per game vs. team total. (Photo by 4for4.com)
As you can see from the past four seasons, the correlation between higher team totals and larger kicker output is solid. As I dug even deeper into this data, I found that the number of times a kicker scored 10+ fantasy points when their team's total was 27 or higher was more than double the number of times when their predicted score was 26 or less.
For the anti-streaming crowd
If you're not into streaming your kicker and prefer just rolling with one throughout the season, here are a few pointers to up your odds of getting the most production out of them.
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First and foremost, wait to draft your kicker until the final round of the draft. With every pick in a fantasy football draft, there is an opportunity cost associated with that pick. In fantasy terms, opportunity cost is simply the value of players who you don't draft, but you had the chance to take. Selecting a kicker before the last round, whether you are in a 15, 18- or more-round draft, has a potentially large opportunity cost attached to it.
A look at players drafted in Rounds 13-14 in half-PPR Yahoo redraft leagues last season reveals a group of positional players who produced starting numbers and even a few potential league winners. The names include Bucky Irving, Ladd McConkey, Jameson Williams, Baker Mayfield, Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet and Jonnu Smith. Drafting a kicker before their time could mean missing out on those points throughout the season, so as hard as it may be — and whatever FOMO you may be experiencing — tap the brakes on that kicker before the final round.
As always, chase volume
Looking for volume is nothing new when it comes to fantasy football, and applying it to kicker selection can also prove effective. High-volume passing offenses lead to scoring opportunities, which is something we want from the leg of our placekickers. Teams that aren't afraid to chuck the ball tend to produce higher-scoring kickers.
Kicker finishes in fantasy points per game & team passing volume, 2024. (Photo by 4for4.com)
If we look at last year's top 13 legs, nine of them came from offenses among the top half of the league in total passing attempts.
Look to the third down
Another stat that can lend us some credence in drafting a kicker to roll with for the season is third-down percentage. The farther down the field a drive is extended means there's more of a chance for scoring, right?
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In 2021, we saw three of the top five kickers from offenses within the top eight in third-down efficiency, with six more rounding out the 14 highest-scoring kickers. The Patriots were seventh in the metric (44.0%), leading to a K2 performance from Folk, with Matt Gay of the Rams putting up K3 numbers with the sixth-highest third-down efficiency number of 44.7% from his offense. Matt Prater was K5 on the season, with the Cardinals' 43.5% third-down efficiency ranking eighth in the league. Kickers 9-14 were all on offenses that landed in the top 10 in third-down efficiency in 2021, with the Eagles (4th), Bills (2nd), Harrison Butker (1st), Greg Zuerlein (10th), Ryan Succop (5th) and Mason Crosby (9th) all on productive offenses.
The next season, four of the top seven kickers in total fantasy points were on offenses that finished the year within the top nine in third-down efficiency, with two more on teams among the top 16 in that metric. The Cowboys ranked fifth (45.2%), producing a K4 performance from Brett Maher, with the 49ers right behind (45.1%) in sixth, with a K4 finish from Robbie Gould. The high-octane Buffalo Bills featured the highest third-down conversion rate in 2023 (50.2%), with Tyler Bass putting up a K6 finish in overall fantasy points. Despite their offensive woes, the Falcons managed to convert third downs at the ninth-highest rate (41.8%), allowing Younghoe Koo to do his thing as K7 on the season.
2023 saw four of the top six kickers in total fantasy points were part of offenses that ended the season among the top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Cowboys were second in the metric at 49.2%, producing a K1 output from Brandon Aubrey, with Chicago's Cairo Santos putting up a K3 performance on the season backed by the Bears' 41.2% third-down conversion rate (10th). Jake Elliott and Butker checked in at K4 and K6, with their teams converting third downs at the fifth (46.2%) and sixth (43.3%) highest rates, respectively.
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Last season, six of the top 10 kickers were on offenses that ranked 13th or better in third-down efficiency. The Buccaneers had the highest rate in 2024 (51%), leading to a K4 performance from Chase McLaughlin, while the Ravens (50.5%) and Detroit (47%) were second and fourth, respectively. Bass checked in as the K8 thanks to the Bills' 44.2% third-down efficiency, which was seventh among offenses, while Chris Boswell seemingly came out of nowhere for that K1 spot, but the Steelers were 12th in the metric.
We do need to remember that the very best offenses should be converting third downs to find that end zone, so sometimes you'll only get one point instead of three or more.
The Bottom Line
Kicker-hate is at an all-time high, and before you let those carpet cleaners in your house and join the cult, you may want to consider how helpful they can be to your team's overall output.
Sure, we've all been burned by the kicker position in the past, and on the surface, it all seems super random, but by putting in some time and effort, kickers' production from week to week may not be as arbitrary as it appears.
Looking at Vegas odds, teams' offensive efficiency and volume can also assist you in getting the most from your kicker.
Let your league mates draft their kicker(s) way too early, while you sit back armed with some actionable data to steer you towards the right one.
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More analysis from 4for4: 2025 available targets and air yards tracker
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
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