From Fordow to Faridabad: How one nuclear bombing could cause a Chernobyl-style fallout and contaminate India's future

Time of India

22-06-2025

Late on Saturday, American forces launched coordinated strikes on three of Iran's most significant nuclear sites: Fordow,
Natanz
, and
Isfahan
. Using bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from 400 miles away, US President Donald Trump ordered a military operation that has since been hailed as 'decisive' by his supporters.
'The president just prevented World War III with this decisive action. This is the 'strength' in 'peace through strength' boldly shown to the world at last,' said Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council.
In a dramatic scene inside the White House Situation Room, President Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance monitored the unfolding operation on 21 June.
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'This isn't Chernobyl,' say experts, but is that enough?
The primary reassurance from Western radiation scientists is that Iran's sites contained enriched uranium, not active reactors like in Chernobyl or Fukushima, as reported by the New York Post. That difference matters.
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'This isn't a Chernobyl scenario,' wrote Aimen Dean on X. 'It's uranium in various stages of enrichment, and even a military strike that destroys centrifuges or disperses material is unlikely to produce a large-scale, long-lasting fallout event.'
Still, that doesn't mean the risk is zero.
'With uranium … the radiation doesn't really travel very far,' said Prof Claire Corkhill, Chair in Mineralogy and Radioactive Waste Management at the University of Bristol. But she added, 'You certainly don't want to breathe in uranium particles and you don't want to ingest them either… that will cause damage.'
Prof Simon Middleburgh, from Bangor University, pointed to another danger: 'If the centrifuges were to release the uranium hexafluoride, the gas contained within the centrifuges, then it would be a really severe chemical incident.'
According to Prof Jim Smith of the
University of Portsmouth
, 'Highly enriched uranium is about three times more radioactive than non-enriched uranium. But … neither of them are particularly densely radioactive. It wouldn't cause a major environmental contamination problem.'
The consensus? The threat is real, but it is local—for now.
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Nuclear fallout: India in the path of the jetstream
Iran may seem distant. But geography—and the winds—say otherwise.
The subtropical jetstream, a high-speed air current running west to east, sits directly between Iran and India. It's the same wind system that spread radioactive isotopes from Chernobyl across Europe and from Fukushima to the Pacific.
As reported by the Eurasian Times, should even limited contamination occur, Indian cities like Delhi,
Amritsar
, and Jaipur—along with croplands in Punjab, Haryana, U.P., and Bihar—could be in the path within 48 to 72 hours.
The Himalayan belt would also be vulnerable. Fallout here could contaminate glaciers feeding the Ganga and Yamuna rivers.
This is not just Iran's problem. It could be India's nightmare.
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What makes Iran's nuclear sites so dangerous?
Iran's nuclear programme includes:
Fordow: A deeply buried enrichment site, once considered impenetrable.
Natanz: A major hub for centrifuge operations.
Isfahan: A uranium conversion facility.
The
IAEA
confirmed Iran's uranium enrichment had reached 60%—approaching the 90% purity needed for nuclear weapons.
'When you dig uranium out of the ground, it comes in two forms: 99.3% is uranium-238, and 0.7% is uranium-235… what you need in your nuclear reactor,' explained Prof Paddy Regan of the
University of Surrey
. The enrichment process boosts the uranium-235 content using centrifuges, increasing the explosive potential.
This process doesn't involve nuclear fission, meaning no 'nuclear chain reaction' occurs in these sites. But uranium particles—if released—can still poison air, soil, and water.
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No immediate fallout, says IAEA, but warning flags are up
The IAEA said it had detected 'no increase in off-site radiation levels' following the US strike. But it was quick to issue a broader caution.
Director General Rafael Grossi said, 'Military escalation increases the chance of a radiological release with serious consequences for people and the environment.'
His warning echoed an earlier IAEA resolution which states: 'Any armed attack on—and threat against—nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the Agency's Statute.'
Why India must be on guard
India may not be part of the strike. But it will surely feel the consequences.
1. Public Health Risks
A single gust carrying uranium dust could push India's already strained healthcare system to the brink. Children, the elderly, and those with respiratory illnesses would be most vulnerable.
2. Food and Water Insecurity
Rabi crops in Punjab and Haryana, rice fields in Bihar, and even glacier-fed drinking water in North
India
are all exposed. One contaminated season could destroy food security.
3. Trade and Tourism Fallout
Even minor radiation detection could lead to export bans on Indian grains, spices, or dairy. Tourism hubs—especially pilgrimage sites—could suffer massive losses.
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India's playbook: What must be done
India cannot afford to wait. It needs an action plan—now.
Radiation Forecasting
and Modelling: ISRO, IMD, and IAEA must jointly track and model fallout scenarios.
Stockpile Iodine Tablets: Especially for school children and frontline workers.
Shield Water Sources
: From floating barriers to filtration units, major rivers need defence.
Urban Evacuation Plans: Especially for Delhi, Jaipur, and Amritsar.
Diplomatic Outreach: Open channels with Pakistan, China, and Gulf nations to exchange air quality data.
Israel-Iran war: A diplomatic crisis in the making
This strike could also upset delicate balances in South Asia's foreign policy.
India–Iran Relations: Key projects like Chabahar Port may be at risk.
India–US Ties: Public and parliamentary backlash over Washington's unilateral strike could strain strategic partnerships.
SAARC & ASEAN Pressure: India may be forced to choose between neutrality and leadership.
UNSC Voice
: Delhi could face calls to press for condemnation of nuclear attacks—against its closest military allies.
India now has a chance to lead. Not just in reaction, but in rule-making. A Nuclear Infrastructure Non-Aggression Pact (NINAP) could be New Delhi's answer.
Key Proposals:
Global ban on kinetic attacks on civilian nuclear sites
Emergency arbitration powers to the IAEA
Real-time global radiation monitoring and alert systems
This could be India's next soft-power success—one that protects lives, trade, and diplomacy all at once.
When the bombs fell on Iran, the world watched. But India should do more than watch. It must act.
The jetstream will not ask for visas. It will not stop at checkpoints. And it will not wait for a press release.
This isn't about choosing sides. It's about protecting 1.4 billion people from a cloud we never caused—but might still have to survive.
Let India lead. Before the wind changes direction.