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Time of India
22-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
From Fordow to Faridabad: How one nuclear bombing could cause a Chernobyl-style fallout and contaminate India's future
Late on Saturday, American forces launched coordinated strikes on three of Iran's most significant nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz , and Isfahan . Using bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from 400 miles away, US President Donald Trump ordered a military operation that has since been hailed as 'decisive' by his supporters. 'The president just prevented World War III with this decisive action. This is the 'strength' in 'peace through strength' boldly shown to the world at last,' said Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council. In a dramatic scene inside the White House Situation Room, President Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance monitored the unfolding operation on 21 June. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like The Simple Morning Habit for a Flatter Belly After 50! Lulutox Undo Also Read: Countdown to WWIII? Will Iran's response to US strikes spark the first Nuclear-age war? 'This isn't Chernobyl,' say experts, but is that enough? The primary reassurance from Western radiation scientists is that Iran's sites contained enriched uranium, not active reactors like in Chernobyl or Fukushima, as reported by the New York Post. That difference matters. Live Events 'This isn't a Chernobyl scenario,' wrote Aimen Dean on X. 'It's uranium in various stages of enrichment, and even a military strike that destroys centrifuges or disperses material is unlikely to produce a large-scale, long-lasting fallout event.' Still, that doesn't mean the risk is zero. 'With uranium … the radiation doesn't really travel very far,' said Prof Claire Corkhill, Chair in Mineralogy and Radioactive Waste Management at the University of Bristol. But she added, 'You certainly don't want to breathe in uranium particles and you don't want to ingest them either… that will cause damage.' Prof Simon Middleburgh, from Bangor University, pointed to another danger: 'If the centrifuges were to release the uranium hexafluoride, the gas contained within the centrifuges, then it would be a really severe chemical incident.' According to Prof Jim Smith of the University of Portsmouth , 'Highly enriched uranium is about three times more radioactive than non-enriched uranium. But … neither of them are particularly densely radioactive. It wouldn't cause a major environmental contamination problem.' The consensus? The threat is real, but it is local—for now. Also Read: Operation Midnight Hammer: How six bunker busters and 75 precision weapons powered the US's second-largest B-2 strike Nuclear fallout: India in the path of the jetstream Iran may seem distant. But geography—and the winds—say otherwise. The subtropical jetstream, a high-speed air current running west to east, sits directly between Iran and India. It's the same wind system that spread radioactive isotopes from Chernobyl across Europe and from Fukushima to the Pacific. As reported by the Eurasian Times, should even limited contamination occur, Indian cities like Delhi, Amritsar , and Jaipur—along with croplands in Punjab, Haryana, U.P., and Bihar—could be in the path within 48 to 72 hours. The Himalayan belt would also be vulnerable. Fallout here could contaminate glaciers feeding the Ganga and Yamuna rivers. This is not just Iran's problem. It could be India's nightmare. Also Read: After US strike, Iran's 'all-out war' warning puts US forces in Bahrain on edge: What comes next? What makes Iran's nuclear sites so dangerous? Iran's nuclear programme includes: Fordow: A deeply buried enrichment site, once considered impenetrable. Natanz: A major hub for centrifuge operations. Isfahan: A uranium conversion facility. The IAEA confirmed Iran's uranium enrichment had reached 60%—approaching the 90% purity needed for nuclear weapons. 'When you dig uranium out of the ground, it comes in two forms: 99.3% is uranium-238, and 0.7% is uranium-235… what you need in your nuclear reactor,' explained Prof Paddy Regan of the University of Surrey . The enrichment process boosts the uranium-235 content using centrifuges, increasing the explosive potential. This process doesn't involve nuclear fission, meaning no 'nuclear chain reaction' occurs in these sites. But uranium particles—if released—can still poison air, soil, and water. Also Read: US defence secretary hails 'bold & brilliant' Operation Midnight Hammer on Iran: All you need to know No immediate fallout, says IAEA, but warning flags are up The IAEA said it had detected 'no increase in off-site radiation levels' following the US strike. But it was quick to issue a broader caution. Director General Rafael Grossi said, 'Military escalation increases the chance of a radiological release with serious consequences for people and the environment.' His warning echoed an earlier IAEA resolution which states: 'Any armed attack on—and threat against—nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the Agency's Statute.' Why India must be on guard India may not be part of the strike. But it will surely feel the consequences. 1. Public Health Risks A single gust carrying uranium dust could push India's already strained healthcare system to the brink. Children, the elderly, and those with respiratory illnesses would be most vulnerable. 2. Food and Water Insecurity Rabi crops in Punjab and Haryana, rice fields in Bihar, and even glacier-fed drinking water in North India are all exposed. One contaminated season could destroy food security. 3. Trade and Tourism Fallout Even minor radiation detection could lead to export bans on Indian grains, spices, or dairy. Tourism hubs—especially pilgrimage sites—could suffer massive losses. Also Read: US strikes Iran's nuclear sites: Vice President JD Vance says war is with weapons programme, not people India's playbook: What must be done India cannot afford to wait. It needs an action plan—now. Radiation Forecasting and Modelling: ISRO, IMD, and IAEA must jointly track and model fallout scenarios. Stockpile Iodine Tablets: Especially for school children and frontline workers. Shield Water Sources : From floating barriers to filtration units, major rivers need defence. Urban Evacuation Plans: Especially for Delhi, Jaipur, and Amritsar. Diplomatic Outreach: Open channels with Pakistan, China, and Gulf nations to exchange air quality data. Israel-Iran war: A diplomatic crisis in the making This strike could also upset delicate balances in South Asia's foreign policy. India–Iran Relations: Key projects like Chabahar Port may be at risk. India–US Ties: Public and parliamentary backlash over Washington's unilateral strike could strain strategic partnerships. SAARC & ASEAN Pressure: India may be forced to choose between neutrality and leadership. UNSC Voice : Delhi could face calls to press for condemnation of nuclear attacks—against its closest military allies. India now has a chance to lead. Not just in reaction, but in rule-making. A Nuclear Infrastructure Non-Aggression Pact (NINAP) could be New Delhi's answer. Key Proposals: Global ban on kinetic attacks on civilian nuclear sites Emergency arbitration powers to the IAEA Real-time global radiation monitoring and alert systems This could be India's next soft-power success—one that protects lives, trade, and diplomacy all at once. When the bombs fell on Iran, the world watched. But India should do more than watch. It must act. The jetstream will not ask for visas. It will not stop at checkpoints. And it will not wait for a press release. This isn't about choosing sides. It's about protecting 1.4 billion people from a cloud we never caused—but might still have to survive. Let India lead. Before the wind changes direction.
CNN
19-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Three military possibilities for Iran that Trump is likely considering
Former DOD official Alex Plitsas joins Abby at the magic wall to talk through what he sees as three military options that President Trump is likely considering on Iran.
Indian Express
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
Russia's Trojan horse moment and why Ukraine's ‘Operation Spider's Web' upends scope of drone warfare
In an audacious attack that was planned for over a year and half, Ukraine carried out large scale drone attacks on multiple Russian air bases, including one in Siberia that was some 4,000 km away from the frontlines. Under its 'Operation Spider's Web', a swarm of Ukrainian drones were unleashed on June 1 that attacked at least five military airbases deep inside Russia's borders and left some 41 bomber aircraft in flames. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the operation as 'an absolutely brilliant result' and said the Ukrainians' actions will 'undoubtedly be in the history books'. He said planning for the operation began 18 months ago, and those involved 'were withdrawn from Russian territory in time'. The attack comes close on the heels of a stepping up of Russia's bombing of Ukrainian cities and was timed just ahead of crucial talks between the two sides. A new round of peace talks is scheduled to start in Istanbul on June 2. Sources say specialised drones called FPV drones were smuggled into Russia, along with mobile wooden cabins. The cabins were carried by trucks with the drones hidden inside. The cabin roofs opened remotely – and then the drones took off, zoned in on the nearby bases to precisely mount the attacks. Ukraine claimed the attack caused $7 billion in damage, with multiple combat planes destroyed in the attack. The Russian defence ministry on Sunday said Ukraine launched FPV drone attacks on five airbases across the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions, adding that all strikes on the Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur airfields were successfully repelled. '(For) All the long range missiles and fighter jets, but it was 150 drones in shipping containers or trucks that took out a reported 1/3 of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and unmanned surface drones that neutered the Black Fleet. Warfare as we knew it just a decade ago, is over,' according to Alex Plitsas, a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs' Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative who leads the Initiative's Counterterrorism Project and was formerly associated with Bridgewater Associates and NorthropGrumman. There are at least five reasons why the attack changes the rules of battlefield engagement: It was one of significant raiding actions in modern warfare, given that the mission was planned for 18 months. This differed from the sort of attacks Ukraine has mounted so far – larger fixed-wing drones attacking at night, closer to areas adjoining Russia's border with Ukraine. This upends that pattern entirely, given that small drones were used this time during the day, and this was done far away from the front lines and deep into Russian territory. In Irkutsk province in eastern Siberia, thousands of kilometres away from Ukraine, locals posted footage of small quadcopter drones emerging from the roof of trucks and then flying toward a nearby airfield, followed by the smoke after impact. The attacks at these Russian airfields are said to have destroyed 41 aircraft, including A-50 early-warning planes and Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, most of which are now out of production and extremely difficult to replace. Russia is estimated to have less than 100 strategic bombers, and around a third of that fleet is impacted with this attack. These attacks were carried out by the SBU, Ukraine's main security agency. The agency released footage in which its chief, Vasily Maliuk, said: 'Russian strategic bombers… all burning delightfully.' Commentators on X aligned to Ukraine's security services indicated that over a 100 quadcopter FPV drones with bombs were smuggled into Russia for the operations. These were then meticulously housed in specially-built wooden cabins, loaded on top of lorries and then released after the roofs of the cabins were retracted remotely. FPV or first-person view drones are smaller in size and have cameras built in on the front, which sends live video to the operator. This enables precise flying and manoeuvrability by the operator from a remote location, almost like an aircraft. The Economist reported that these drones used Russian mobile-telephone networks to relay their footage back to Ukraine, much of which then shared on social media. It is entirely possible that the drivers of the trucks did not know what they were carrying. In that respect, analysts said this operation was similar to the 2022 attack on Kerch bridge, where a bomb concealed in a lorry destroyed part of the bridge linking Crimea with the Russian mainland. The planning was elaborate. A source quoted by The Economist said that the Russians were first encouraged to move more of their planes to particular bases by Ukrainian strikes on other ones. Three days before this drone attack, dozens of planes were moved to the Olenya airfield in Murmansk province, according to reports published at the time. It was precisely here that the most damage was done after the June 1 attack. The fact that Ukraine was able to destroy such a large number of Russia's aircraft deep inside Russia territory demonstrates the effectiveness of such deep-strike programmes and taking the possibilities of drone warfare to another level. According to Thomas Shugart, an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Defense Programme at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and someone who served for over 25 years in the US Navy, where he last worked in the Defense Department's Office of Net Assessment: 'Imagine, on game-day, containers at railyards, on Chinese-owned container ships in port or offshore, on trucks parked at random properties…spewing forth thousands of drones that sally forth and at least mission-kill the crown jewels of the [US Air Force]… would be 'entirely feasible'. The America-specific warning issued by Shugart, who has previously written about the threat to airfields from drones and recommended specifically that key aircraft such as bombers should also have hardened shelters for just this sort of attack, could now resonate across geographies, including India. Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More
