VIEW Analysts on Chevron winning arbitration over Exxon in Hess deal
"Chevron's win in the arbitration over the Guyana oil assets case is a major coup for the U.S. oil major. It paves the way for its acquisition of Hess and therefore strengthens Chevron's upstream presence in Guyana, Canada and U.S. on-shore... we expect the company to continue to strengthen its portfolio over the coming years."
"We expect (Chevron's) shares to outperform over the coming weeks... as investors have clarity on the investment case and can focus more on the free-cash flow inflection into 2026-27, as well as the new growth that comes with Hess assets."
"The synergy target is likely to be reviewed at the (Capital Market Day) on November 12th, where Chevron expects to go deeper into its longer-term plans."
"Chevron had suggested when the deal was announced that 8 assets it highlighted of the joint entity (Guyana, GOA, Australia, TCO, Permian, DJ, Bakken, Eastern Med) are core. It is unclear if this still stands, with some likely seeing the Bakken as a divestment candidate."
"Chord Energy and Devon Energy have both been acquisitive in the basin, and we expect incremental interest on future opportunities either with Chevron as a consolidator or interest in divesting."
"The ruling thus ends a saga that has been going on for 16 months when Exxon first formally attempted to block the merger agreement in March 2024. Since the deal was first announced on October 23, 2023, the total shareholder return for Hess has been -6% vs -2% for Chevron, +7% for Exxon, and -10% for the E&P index (all prior to today's trading)."
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