RBI likely to cut repo rate by 25 bps on June 6 amid low inflation, say experts

Time of India

2 days ago

NEW DELHI: The
Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) is likely to announce a third consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate cut on June 6, amid easing inflation and global economic uncertainty driven by US tariff actions.
With consumer price inflation remaining below the 4 per cent median target, experts believe the move would support growth during a period of external volatility, according to a PTI report.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI's rate-setting panel, will begin deliberations on the next bi-monthly policy on June 4. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Friday, June 6.
Following 25 bps
repo rate
cuts in both February and April, which brought the key policy rate down to 6 per cent, the six-member MPC, led by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, also changed its policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative' in April.
The central bank has now reduced the policy repo rate by a cumulative 50 bps in 2025 so far, prompting multiple banks to lower their External Benchmark Lending Rates (EBLRs) and Marginal Cost of Funds-Based Lending Rates (MCLR).
"We do believe that given the rather benign inflation conditions and the liquidity situation which has been made very comfortable through various measures of the RBI, the MPC would go in for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate on the (June) 6th.
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The commentary on both growth and inflation will be important as there are expectations of revisions in their forecasts for both the parameters," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.
He also expects the RBI to provide detailed insight into global factors affecting the Indian economy, especially in light of the expiration of US tariff relief in July.
ICRA's chief economist, Aditi Nayar, also projects continued monetary easing through the year, as CPI inflation is forecast to remain below 4 per cent for most of the fiscal.
"A 25 bps rate cut is expected next week, followed by two more cuts over the subsequent two policy reviews, taking the repo rate to 5.25 per cent by the end of the cycle," she said.
The RBI's annual report, released on Thursday reiterated the central bank's plan to manage liquidity operations in line with the prevailing monetary policy stance, ensuring sufficient liquidity for the productive sectors of the economy.
The government has mandated the RBI to maintain CPI-based retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a flexibility band of plus or minus 2 per cent.
Assocham Secretary General Manish Singhal also supported the case for easing, citing multi-year low inflation and overall positive macroeconomic indicators. "Though the INR is likely to come under depreciation pressure in the short term, especially if global interest rates (e.g. in the US) remain elevated, its impact will depend on the changes in global risk appetite, crude oil prices and the Fed's own monetary stance.
We emphasize the importance of strategic patience over aggressive easing, given the current environment of steady growth and manageable inflation," said Singhal.
Echoing similar sentiments, Signature Global founder and chairman Pradeep Aggarwal expressed hope that the RBI would offer relief to homebuyers with a rate cut. "Given that several scheduled commercial banks have been reducing their lending rates following the previous two RBI MPC outcomes, another rate cut at this juncture would act as a catalyst for increased housing demand across segments.
As a result, both first-time homebuyers and investors are likely to be encouraged to enter the real estate market, further strengthening demand across the sector," Aggarwal said.
Also read:
RBI slaps Rs 54.78 crore in penalties on banks and NBFCs for compliance lapses in FY25
An article in the RBI's May Bulletin highlighted that domestic bond yields have declined to multi-year lows, aided by back-to-back policy rate cuts and liquidity-enhancing measures. The report noted that monetary and credit conditions are evolving in line with the RBI's accommodative policy approach, aiming to bring inflation in line with targets while bolstering growth.
India's
GDP growth
is estimated to have dipped to a four-year low of 6.5 per cent in FY 2024–25. Meanwhile, retail inflation in April 2025 eased to 3.16 per cent- the lowest year-on-year print since July 2019.
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