Gold Holds Decline as US-EU Trade Deal Eases Some Haven Demand
Bullion traded near $3,330 an ounce — following a 0.4% weekly loss — as investors weighed the outlook for the global economy in the wake of the deal, which will see the EU face 15% levies on most of its exports including automobiles. Still, there are lingering questions about the scope of the pact, including details over the impact on metals — signaling potential challenges when it comes to implementation.
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Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
Asian Stocks Set for Subdued Open Ahead of Fed: Markets Wrap
Asian equities are set for a lackluster start ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with investors showing little enthusiasm for progress in US-China trade talks. Futures for Tokyo and Hong Kong equities pointed lower, while Sydney contracts were flat after the S&P 500 snapped a six-day rally, slipping 0.3%. Treasuries climbed, led by longer-dated notes, following a solid $44 billion sale. Oil held gains early Wednesday after President Donald Trump's reiteration that further levies on Russia remained on the table without a Ukraine truce.
The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
These nations don't have trade deals with Trump ahead of his Aug. 1 tariff deadline
President Trump is set to hit several major U.S. trading partners with steep tariffs if they don't agree to new trade terms before an Aug. 1. deadline. Trump suggested Monday that any nation that refuses to strike a deal with the U.S. would face a tariff between 15 and 20 percent. 'We're going to be setting a tariff for essentially the rest of the world, and that's what they're going to pay if they want to do business in the United States. Because you can't sit down and do 200 deals. But we made the big ones,' he said. Here are some of the top trading partners that have not struck deals with the U.S. China Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts held talks this week in China and Stockholm this week, which marked the third round of talks between the two nations. The talks led to another possible extension in the trade deal that was announced in May, without details about the timing of that extension. Trump said he will be briefed on Wednesday by his top officials on a deal with China to extend the tariff pause, and 'we'll either approve it or not.' China and the U.S. were facing an Aug. 12 deadline for tariffs on China at 30 percent and Chinese tariffs on the U.S. at 10 percent. That rate is significantly down from earlier in the year, when Trump hit China with a 145 percent tariff and Beijing hit U.S. goods with a 125 percent tariff. 'We have a good relationship with China,' Trump said Monday. 'China's tough.' Trump on Tuesday also pushed back on reporting that the tariff talks this week could set the groundwork for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying he's not looking for a summit with his counterpart. U.S. imports from China in 2024 totaled nearly $439 billion, according to the U.S. trade representative (USTR), and U.S. exports to China in 2024 were more than $143 billion. Mexico and Canada Negotiations between the Trump administration and Canada have stalled, Trump said last week. 'We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they'll just pay tariffs. It's not really a negotiation,' Trump said on Friday. Trump threatened to levy a 35 percent tariff on the country in a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada was the third-largest source of U.S. imports, totaling $412.7 billion in 2024, according to the USTR. U.S. exports to Canada in 2024 were $349.4 billion. The president also threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on goods from Mexico in a letter, citing the flow of fentanyl across the southern border that was the original basis for a 25 percent tariff he imposed on Mexican goods earlier this year. The letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was sent on the same day that Trump threatened 30 percent tariffs on the European Union. He has since made a deal with the European bloc to lower tariffs to 15 percent. Mexico was the top source for U.S. imports, which totaled just less than $506 billion in 2024, according to the USTR. U.S. goods exports to Mexico in 2024 were $334 billion. South Korea The administration hasn't cited any progress in talks with South Korea, and President Lee Jae Myung said in July that talks with the U.S. have been 'clearly not easy.' South Korea is the sixth-largest trading partner with the U.S. and was hit with a 25 percent tariff on its imports on 'Liberation Day' in April. U.S. goods from South Korea totaled more than $131 billion in 2024, according to the USTR. U.S. exports to South Korea in 2024 were more than $65 billion. Taiwan The U.S. has held three rounds of talks with Taiwanese officials, and a deal could be struck any day, a source familiar with talks told The Hill. Even so, the fate of a deal with Taiwan also depends on the U.S.-China talks in Sweden. Taiwan is bracing for Trump possibly cutting them out of a trade relationship as part of making a deal with China, the source said, and is 'actively contemplating the prospect of a new go-it-alone era, where Taipei can no longer count on support from the White House.' The Trump administration reportedly denied Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te's request to stop over in the U.S. next month, a move that has added to the fears that the president would 'sell out' Taiwan's democracy in order to have a strong trade relationship with China. Taiwan is the seventh-largest trading partner with the U.S. and was hit with a 32 percent tariff on its imports in April. U.S. imports from Taiwan in 2024 totaled more than $116 billion, according to the USTR, and U.S. exports to Taiwan in 2024 totaled more than $42 billion. India Top administration officials, including Trump, have insisted for months that a deal with India was pending but have yet to announce one. 'No, it's not,' Trump said on Tuesday when asked if a deal with India was finalized. He also threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on India. India and U.S. trade last year overall was valued at roughly $130 billion, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a friendly visit to Trump in February. Vice President Vance then traveled to India in April and hailed progress on trade talks with Modi, expressing optimism about striking a deal. Trump imposed a 26 percent tariff on goods from India during his April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. India is the 10-largest trading partner with the U.S., and U.S. imports from India totaled more than $87 billion in 2024, according to the USTR. U.S. exports to India in 2024 were nearly $42 billion. Brazil Trump declared that Brazil would be hit with a hefty 50 percent tariff in part due to the criminal prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's former president, over an alleged plot to remain in power after losing an election. He sent a letter to Brazil, deeming the prosecution of Bolsonaro — known as the 'Trump of the tropics' — a 'witch hunt.' Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has urged Trump to return to trade talks and said on CNN earlier this month that Trump 'was elected not to be the emperor of the world.' Brazil is among the top 15 trading partners with the U.S. and was hit with a 10 percent tariff on its imports in April. U.S. imports from Brazil in 2024 totaled more than $42 billion, according to the USTR, and U.S. exports to Brazil in 2024 were nearly $50 billion. Switzerland Switzerland is hopeful that the draft trade deal it approved will be signed off by Trump ahead of the deadline, Bloomberg reported. Swiss President and Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said in July that the two nations were close and was hopeful at the time that Switzerland would be one of the first nations to strike deals with the U.S. Switzerland is among the top 20 trading partners with the U.S. and was hit with a 31 percent tariff on its imports in April. U.S. imports from Switzerland totaled more than $63 billion in 2024, according to the USTR, and U.S. exports to Switzerland in 2024 were $25 billion. Thailand Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on Monday to end five days of fighting in the region, which is expected to also restart trade talks with the U.S. 'I have instructed my Trade Team to restart negotiations on Trade,' Trump said on Truth Social after he spoke to both leaders about the truce. Trump had previously said if the two countries did not stop fighting, they would not get a trade deal with the U.S. Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said he expects a 'very good' trade deal after agreeing to end the conflict. He said that Trump told him 'there will be tariff negotiations, which will be beneficial, and we will get something very good out of it. He will do his best to give us as much as he can,' Bloomberg reported. Thailand is among the top 20 trading partners with the U.S. and was hit with a 36 percent tariff in April. U.S. imports from Thailand totaled more than $63 billion in 2024, according to the USTR, and U.S. exports to Thailand in 2024 were nearly $18 billion.
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Trump's Historic EU Trade Deal: Energy Dominance Doctrine In Action
The EU and the US agree on a trade-tariff deal with a 15% tariff for the vast majority of EU ... More products, as seen in this photo illustration in Brussels, Belgium, on July 28, 2025. (Photo by Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images) In line with the energy dominance paradigm, the Trump administration has struck a deal with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that calls for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy exports and invest $600 billion in the U.S. economy by 2028. In exchange, Washington will cap import tariffs at 15% on most EU goods starting August 1st, including cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Certain products - aircraft, semiconductor equipment, select agricultural exports, and some chemicals - will be exempt from tariffs altogether. This arrangement brings partial relief from the trade tensions but remains far from free trade. The 15% ceiling adds predictability while preserving protectionism. Sensitive European goods like steel and aluminum will be managed under tariff-rate quotas, where fixed volumes enter at lower tariffs and excess imports face higher rates. A Political Understanding, Not a Binding Treaty For all its ambitious terms, no formal treaty has been signed. This remains a political handshake that now needs to be written down and implemented. Hammering out the details will be the real test, as both sides are already offering different interpretations of the same pledges. The White House insists the EU's $600 billion investment will be entirely "new" money, 'in addition to the over $100 billion EU companies already invest in the United States'. Brussels has been more cautious, saying companies have only "expressed interest" in future investment by 2029. Moreover, these sweeping targets depend on private decisions, not state control. No one can compel private EU companies to buy $750 billion in U.S. fuels or invest $600 billion in American infrastructure. The enforcement mechanism relies on Trump's own judgment. As long as he perceives progress and can claim wins, the pact may hold. But perceived shortfalls might spark new demands or punitive measures. The Numbers Don't Add Up The Trump administration's goal is to boost U.S. fossil and nuclear exports while narrowing the goods trade deficit with the European Union, which stood at $236 billion in 2024. That year, total U.S.-EU goods trade reached $976 billion. The U.S. exported $370 billion worth of goods to the EU and imported $605 billion. The aim is not only to close the existing deficit, but to create a significant trade surplus. The EU imported 51 bcm of U.S. LNG in 2024, worth $12.2 billion (if we assume an average LNG price of $6.59 per mmBtu). Scaling that to $250 billion annually would require increasing LNG trade more than twentyfold—a leap that is logistically impossible under current infrastructure and market conditions. U.S. LNG export terminals are near capacity, and building new infrastructure takes years. Reaching $250 billion in sales just to the EU would require Europe to purchase a very large portion of total U.S. oil and gas exports. The $600 billion EU investment target faces similar constraints. This exceeds roughly €498 billion ($540 billion) what the EU invested in major priority sectors like climate, energy, transport, and clean technology in 2023. Brussels is essentially committing to send more investment abroad than it spends at home on the green transition. In GDP terms, the annual investment flow of $200 billion is comparable to the combined GDPs of Portugal and Slovakia. Why set these impossible targets? Because they work politically. The Trump administration wants big goals to frame the EU relationship in transactional terms. Europe wants stable energy supply and tariff relief. The figures may be unattainable, but they send a clear message about economic alignment and reduced exposure to Russia and China. There is precedent for inflated purchase pledges in Trump-brokered deals. The 2019 Phase One trade agreement with China set ambitious quotas for Chinese purchases of U.S. goods. China never came close to hitting them. To be fair, former President Biden also liked aspirational targets, such as 30 GW of offshore wind capacity to be installed in the U.S. by 2030. So such strategies straddle political party line. Europe's Strategic Calculations Why would Europe accept what appears to be a lopsided arrangement? The motivations are threefold: energy security, economic pressure, and geopolitical insurance. First, the EU gains assurances on U.S. energy supply. With Russia largely sidelined as an energy partner, Europe needs reliable alternatives. The United States, now the world's top producer of both oil and natural gas, is a leading candidate. U.S. nuclear technologies are under active consideration in several EU member states, including Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Plans range from large-scale reactors, such as the Westinghouse AP1000, to small modular reactors (SMRs) from companies like NuScale, GE Hitachi, and Holtec. In addition to securing U.S. reactor designs and engineering, these projects will require a reliable fuel supply, much of which was historically provided by Russia. Second, the deal heads off a trade war. Trump had threatened 25-30% tariffs on EU cars and other goods, which would have hit Germany particularly hard. By accepting the 15% cap and making purchase commitments, Brussels avoids confrontation and buys time. Finally, there's the temporal calculus. The commitments stretch to 2028-2029, potentially beyond the current U.S. presidential term. With potential new leadership in Washington, the more onerous aspects could be renegotiated or quietly dropped. Aspirational Targets as Policy Tools This agreement reflects Trump's long-held energy dominance doctrine, which prioritizes U.S. fossil and nuclear exports while ignoring renewables. The deal fits this framework perfectly: it locks in fossil fuel exports and aims to close the trade gap. For the EU, it provides energy security, tariff relief, and stability in an uncertain geopolitical environment. The $750 billion energy goal is not feasible, and the $600 billion investment figure is soft, at best. Yet the agreement serves both parties' strategic objectives. This is a historically significant deal not because the numbers are realistic, but because it demonstrates how both sides want to manage their economic relationship going forward. The aspirational targets are the feature, not the bug, of this approach.
