With US tariff war disrupting Indian job market, here's how to protect your job through smart adapting

Economic Times

16 hours ago

iStock Engineering goods, textiles, and chemicals sectors are most likely be impacted by tarriffs If your news feed does not show you geopolitics or trade policies, you're not alone. International trade doesn't grab attention like cricket or Bollywood. However, when the US hiked tariffs on Indian exports, as it did again in July this year, it was not a political story anymore. It was an attack on your job security, too.
Think of tariff like a 25% or 50% additional GST you have to pay on imported apples or kiwis bought from your fruit vendor. Given the high price, maybe you would want to switch to local bananas and oranges instead. Similarly, when the US imposes steep tariffs and buyers choose not to buy anymore, it impactsthe revenues and operations of exporters in, say, chemicals or auto components. If your employer is affected, so is your job. Radiation fallout everywhere Though India has won limited relief on farm exports after intense pushback, the overall picture is clear—the trade war isn't going away soon. Since April, when the US-driven tariff war started playing out, global growth has slowed down, and oil prices and dollar rates have fluctuated. Like radiation fallout after a nuclear strike, every business has been impacted by second-degree effects. When a US customer cancels or pauses an order because of uncertainty or tariff-driven costs, it's not just the exporter but also the Indian supplier, transporter, marketing agencies, financial teams, and even traditional IT services firms that feel the pinch. A Noida engineering firm recently froze recruitment on domestic projects after its US order book shrank by 30% practically overnight. In Gujarat, a mid-sized chemicals exporter shifted focus to low-margin domestic orders as part of survival tactics. Double trouble The tariff timing couldn't have been worse. While China continues to struggle with a real estate slump, the Eurozone has been hovering on the edge of recession since 2024. The US presidency change in 2025 rattled investors globally, and energy prices swung unpredictably from multiple war zones. All this has driven up India's import costs and fuelled inflationary pressure. What it means is that companies are being forced to become conservative, tighten their belts, and cut costs, often through automation. An apparel exporter from Tirupur, Tamil Nadu, recently replaced 40 manual stitching stations with automated units when hit by a combination of rising input costs and falling US orders. The grim reality is that these jobs won't be coming back. Some sink, some swim Not all sectors are equally bruised. Those grappling with rising costs and shrinking US demand include engineering goods, textiles, and chemicals. Reducing margins is forcing them to delay expansion. Other sectors, such as apparel and leather exporters, are offsetting losses by cautiously picking up new US orders from buyers diversifying away from China. However, they are not going aggressive on hiring. Meanwhile, traditional export sales jobs are reducing and are being replaced by compliance officers, localisation managers, and trade diversification specialists. Quiet winners In every disruption, new winners emerge. Here, the recovery is being led by the domestic market, with sectors focused on renewable energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and fintech still attracting investments and skilled talent. Nearly 60% of private sector formal and informal jobs in India are in MSMEs. Here, too, smaller manufacturers are shifting focus to domestic markets and e-commerce platforms to keep their engines running. Crisis leads to innovation, and thus, new startups in supply chain technology, AI-driven manufacturing, and agri-processing are developing new solutions and expanding teams. A Pune-based SaaS (software as a service) startup recently signed three large exporters for its AI-powered cost-tracking tool. If you are a job seeker, these growth sectors require skills blending domain expertise, digital fluency, and market savvy.
Rewriting playbooks Indian exporters aren't going down without a fight. They are aggressively diversifying by seeking new markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa. Meanwhile, the government-led Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are pulling investments into domestic manufacturing and import substitution. All firms are targeting costs by sourcing closer to end markets and, thus, cutting down on shipping and customs. What this means is growth in roles around compliance, automation, and market intelligence. A Pune auto component manufacturer has redirected 20% of its export pipeline to Southeast Asia, with a new team in multilingual sales, regional regulatory knowledge, and trade finance skills. Your tariff survival kit You cannot control trade wars or uncertainty, but you can reduce your personal risk. First, understand and monitor your employer's business, export exposure, client geographies, and supply chain dependencies. Next, acquire automation-resistant skills, including AI, compliance, trade finance, and vendor management. Invest in professional relationships, especially in domestic growth sectors. Also, diversify your income through freelancing or entrepreneurship on the side.
Policies that matter to you Know that India's domestic market is huge, and regional trade partnerships are expanding, and yet, these buffers aren't foolproof. Hence, on the external front, India is challenging tariffs at the WTO, negotiating sectoral relief with the US, and expanding engagement with ASEAN and Gulf states to unlock alternative markets. Internally, it is incentivising exporters and expanding PLI coverage to create domestic manufacturing jobs. Schemes like Make in India and Skill India will impact your sector's hiring outlook in the current challenging times. Thrive, not survive Tariffs and global uncertainty have become the new normal. If jobs of the future are to be defined by volatility, how will you build your career? Become a professional who is constantly learning new skills and growing professional relationships. When a statement in Washington impacts a small business in Surat, your job security depends on your adaptability. The right time to prepare? Yesterday. The second-best time? Today.
The Author is FOUNDER, SALARYNEXT.COM, A JOB LOSS ASSURANCE COMPANY, AND AUTHOR OF GET HIRED IN 30 DAYS.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)