EY forecasts 6.5% GDP growth in FY26
It said exports may slow due to higher tariffs and weakening global demand, but the overall GDP impact may be limited, given the subdued role of net exports in India's recent growth experience. Global slowdown may constrain growth worldwide, but India's relatively strong fiscal space and monetary flexibility provide scope for calibrated stimulus. Excess production capacities in major exporting nations could lead to dumping risks, requiring India to consider targeted anti-dumping measures.
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Indian Express
12 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Daily Briefing: GST reforms, job scheme & made-in-India chips in PM Modi's I-Day speech
🇮🇳 Happy Independence Day, dear reader! Prime Minister Narendra Modi started off the day with his annual speech from the facade of the Red Fort. Some key takeaways from his speech include: 👉 The government is set to bring the next generation of GST reforms by October. PM Modi called it a 'Diwali gift', promising that these reforms would bring down taxes on daily-use items. 👉 He announced the launch of the Pradhan Mantri Viksit Bharat Rozgar Yojana, which comes into effect today. Under the scheme, the government will give Rs 15,000 to those getting their first job in the private sector, and also incentivise companies to create jobs for freshers. 👉 In an apparent reference to the US tariff threats, PM Modi reiterated that India will not accept any detrimental policy that compromises on the interests of its farmers. He added that India will embrace 'Swadeshi' with confidence, and not out of necessity. 👉 He added that India will launch a 'Sudarshan Chakra' mission to create a powerful weapons system to ward off any enemy attack. All public places will be covered by an expanded nationwide security shield by 2035. 👉 Made-in-India chips to hit markets by the end of this year, PM Modi further announced. On that note, let's get to today's edition. In the spirit of the long weekend, we will keep this one short-er than usual! 👇 🚨 Big Story US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, are set to meet later today in an attempt to end the war in Ukraine. Notably, no other European leader, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will be present for the discussions. The outcome of the meeting will be keenly watched by New Delhi, which is seeking to avoid the additional 25 per cent US tariff linked to its Russian oil purchases. What both sides want: Trump's talks with Putin have yielded no progress on ending the war, fueling growing frustration. Trump hopes that sanctions on Russia's trading partners, such as the 'penalty' on India, would force Putin's hand into accepting a deal. Putin, meanwhile, has set high demands, asking for Ukrainian territories that Russia currently holds, a ban on Ukraine's entry into NATO and Zelenskyy's removal. He would also seek concessions on sanctions against Russia. India's stakes: A senior government official has also told The Indian Express that whether the US will charge the additional penalty on Indian goods, on top of the 25 per cent tariff currently in effect, would depend on 'how geopolitical developments unfold' over the next few days. 👉 It's noteworthy that S&P Global Ratings, the world's largest rating agency, has upgraded India's assessment to BBB from BBB-, calling it one of 'best performing economies in the world'. Crucially, S&P has said that the effect of the cumulative 50 per cent tariffs on the Indian economy would be 'manageable'. 👉 Indian refineries have slowed down oil imports from Russia in recent weeks. Industry insiders, however, say the reduction is primarily due to the narrowing of Russian discounts on crude oil, and not due to US threats. 👉 New Delhi also hopes to reaffirm its position on the side of peace and would want to join rebuilding efforts in Ukraine. Most importantly, New Delhi would also seek to improve ties with the US. Also read: The fascinating history of how the US bought Alaska, the venue of the Trump-Putin meeting, from Russia The Supreme Court's order to relocate all street dogs in Delhi-NCR to shelters has divided public opinion. In this week's Dis/Agree column, we discuss whether it's a strategy or cruelty. Ryan Lobo, director of Humane Foundation for People and Animals, has called the SC order 'humane', shining a light on the failures of the Animal Birth Control (ABC) Rules to prioritise public safety or protect animals. NCP (SP) spokesman Anish Gawande, meanwhile, writes that 'reality on ground' would make the SC order impossible to execute. The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission to make available online a searchable list of approximately 65 lakh voter names omitted from the draft electoral roll for Bihar, along with reasons for deletion, such as death, migration, and duplication. Read my colleague Apurva Vishwanath's explainer for key takeaways on the SC's order. 📌 Must Read In a bizarre, yet concerning, development in Uttar Pradesh, a Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report has flagged that the state Mining Department issued transit passes to thousands of 'unfit' vehicles to transport minerals, 'leading to illegal movement of minerals'. These vehicles included ambulances, bulldozers, fire tenders and even hearses. Read on. ⏳ And Finally… The game of cricket is increasingly moving from player-centric teams to those that fit the coaches' mould. India's recent draw finish at the Anderson Tendulkar Trophy shows that head coach Gautam Gambhir is yet to figure out a winning formula for the longest format of the game. His next challenge, however, will be to carve out a team that can defend the T20 World Cup title on home soil, early next year. My colleague Venkata Krishna B analyses Gambhir's options, and whether India need a finisher. 🎧 Before you go, do tune in to today's '3 Things' podcast episode, where we revisit the forgotten struggles from India's Independence movement. That's all for today, folks! Happy weekend-ing, Sonal Gupta
The Hindu
12 minutes ago
- The Hindu
PM Independence Day speech: Modi is standing like a wall against any harmful policy related to farmers, fishermen and cattle rearers
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday (August 15, 2025) said India will not compromise on the interests of farmers, livestock rearers and fishermen, asserting that he is standing like a wall to protect them. The remarks are important as the U.S. is seeking duty concessions from India in agriculture and dairy sectors in the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), being negotiated between the two countries. Independence Day LIVE The U.S. has also imposed steep tariffs on India. Mr. Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, which will come into effect from August 27. At present, an additional 25% tariffs are there on Indian goods entering American market. "Modi is standing like a wall against any harmful policy related to the farmers, fishermen and cattle rearers of India. India will never accept any compromise regarding its farmers, its livestock rearers, its fishermen," he said while addressing the nation on the 79th Independence Day. In the proposed BTA, the U.S. is seeking reduced tariffs on products like corn, soybeans, apples, almonds and ethanol, as well as increased access for U.S. dairy products. New Delhi is, however, strongly opposing these demands as these will have a direct bearing on farmers. India has never given any duty concessions to any of its trading partners, including Australia and Switzerland, with whom it has signed trade agreements.
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First Post
12 minutes ago
- First Post
Trump's tariff delusions: Countering China or cosying up?
If Trump 1.0 was erratic, Trump 2.0 appears even more destabilising, especially if these strategic alignments are pursued at the cost of trust with key partners Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office for his second term has reignited his trademark approach to global trade—using tariffs both as a protective shield for American domestic manufacturing and as a weapon for diplomatic pressure. However, the way he has single-handedly used tariffs to threaten and pressure countries has been diplomatically one of the most concerning developments in recent years. His latest move was the announcement of a sweeping 25 per cent tariff targeting Indian exports effective August 1—marking more than just a standard trade measure. Voicing his displeasure with India's dealings with Russia, there was 'an additional penalty' of 25 per cent announced, signalling that the Trump administration sees the world in stark 'us vs them' terms. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In this context, many analysts have suggested that while Trump seems increasingly hostile toward New Delhi, he is drawing close to Pakistan with announcements of 'joint oil exploration' projects in the neighbourhood. This shift begs the question: is Washington attempting to recalibrate its regional strategy to counterbalance China's influence? Or, more provocatively, is the US now looking to align itself more closely with Beijing and Islamabad under the guise of regional engagement? Is Washington creating a balance against China—or cosying up to it? Contrary to the widely argued narrative that the United States is leveraging Pakistan to create a counterbalance with China, the Trump 2.0 administration has taken a notably softer and more conciliatory stance toward Beijing. Trump, being the businessman, appears more focused on swift, short-term transactional deals with China rather than pursuing structural reforms to address longstanding trade imbalances. Recent developments bear testament to how the US is keen on extending its current tariff truce with China, underscored by a series of soft diplomatic gestures in recent weeks. One such move was the lifting of export bans on critical chip design software and technologies to China. In return, both US and Chinese officials confirmed that Beijing would approve export licenses for rare earth elements and vital minerals. This exchange illustrates the quiet but strategic negotiations taking place between the two powers. Reinforcing this détente, Xinhua reported that during a recent phone call with Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for deeper engagement and emphasized that both countries should 'enhance dialogue in fields such as diplomacy, economy and trade, military, and law enforcement'. While Trump 2.0 seems eager to strengthen ties with Beijing, it has shown less restraint with traditional partners such as Taiwan and India. The contrast is starkly uncomfortable. Where negotiations with China are carefully orchestrated behind closed doors, Taiwan finds itself on the receiving end of aggressive economic threats, particularly around semiconductors—the centrepiece of its economy. Yet, Trump appears unfazed about jeopardising key relationships, using tariffs as leverage even against long-standing allies. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India, too, has found itself at the sharp end of this gamble. Despite New Delhi's strategic importance, Trump has chosen simultaneously to warm up to Beijing and Pakistan while threatening punitive and additional tariffs on India for buying oil from Russia. As Milan Vaishnav noted in a recent Foreign Affairs article, 'The second Trump administration is driven not so much by transactionalism as it is by an insatiable desire to burnish its dominance in virtually all its foreign relationships. Its dealings with India have been no exception.' In his shifting goalposts with India—which range from calling the world's fastest-growing major economy a 'dead economy,' to calling negotiations with India 'frustrating,' to rants against India's friendship with Russia—what is most visible is his silence on the same when it comes to China. Trump's loudest rants are against trading with India, even though the US has been at the receiving end of China's malicious trade practices, has the biggest trade deficit with China, and despite the Sino-Russian friendship having 'no limits.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump 2.0's expectations from India While the United States may believe that India will eventually yield and come to the negotiating table, New Delhi sees through this 'delusion'. The idea that a lunch meeting with Pakistan's army chief or symbolic brotherhood can effectively project American alignment with Islamabad—both diplomatically and militarily—is a miscalculation rooted in outdated geopolitical thinking. This approach stems from an American mindset that still operates under the assumption of a bipolar world order, where tactical manoeuvring by Washington will compel other nations to fall in line. India, however, remembers history well. This is not 1971, when US President Richard Nixon and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger enabled Pakistan to receive support from countries like Jordan out of fear that an Indian offensive could dismantle Pakistan. At that time, the US, Pakistan, and China were essentially on the same side against India. Washington's current strategy seems eerily similar, as if it still sees India as a Soviet proxy and Pakistan as a responsible ally. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such delusions risk undoing everything Washington has worked to build in the Indo-Pacific region—efforts forged not just by the US but in close cooperation with India, Japan, Australia, and other regional partners. If Trump 1.0 was erratic, Trump 2.0 appears even more destabilising, especially if these strategic alignments are pursued at the cost of trust with key partners. From India's point of view, the world is no longer bipolar. New Delhi has options that extend well beyond Washington. While India is open to negotiations and remains cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a mutually beneficial trade deal, it has made it clear that it will not enter talks under pressure and threats. For the United States, it should be noted that capturing adversaries at the expense of partners will neither bring immediate gains nor serve as a long-term counter to China. If anything, China will only emerge as the hegemon much sooner than later—which does not make America great again. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Sriparna Pathak is Associate Professor, Chinese Studies and International Relations, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Haryana. Upamanyu Basu is an Assistant Professor of Politics and International Relations in Manav Rachna International Institute of Research and Studies, Haryana. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
