Latest news with #EYEconomyWatch
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Increased capex, focus on rare earth minerals may shape India's 'Viksit Bharat' journey: EY report
In June 2023, India has identified at least 30 critical minerals taking into account its requirements for sectors like defence, agriculture, energy, pharmaceutical, and telecom. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads An increased capital expenditure and focus on rare earth minerals may shape India's Viksit Bharat journey, according to a report by EY. It suggested that policy measures must balance consumption support with increased capital India's long-term growth relies on building resilience through self-reliance in critical minerals. Critical minerals are those minerals that are essential for economic development and national June 2023, India has identified at least 30 critical minerals taking into account its requirements for sectors like defence, agriculture, energy, pharmaceutical, and has launched a National Critical Mineral Mission in 2025 to address this, but further support from both the public and private sectors will be important, EY said. Strengthening partnerships with countries rich in rare earth resources could also help reduce supply chain to the EY Economy Watch May edition, India's economic growth for 2025-26 is expected to moderate, influenced by a mix of global and domestic the EY report said India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, supported by resilient domestic demand, easing inflation, and an accommodative monetary policy linked to prospects of revival in private per EY report analysis, global factors are largely contributing to a cautious outlook. These include continuing supply chain disruptions, the impact of recent tariff measures by the US, and broader uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical report suggests that in the near term, India may need to rely on a balanced mix of monetary and fiscal policies for sustaining the growth momentum. On the monetary front, a continuation of the ongoing rate cut cycle could provide support to consumption and the fiscal side, reviving the momentum in public investment especially the government's capital expenditure, which witnessed a moderation in growth in 2024-25, will be important to sustain economic Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India said, "While India's medium-term prospects remain strong, current global headwinds and domestic challenges call for supportive fiscal and monetary policies. Over the long run, sectors linked to technology and clean energy will play a key role in driving sustainable growth. Building resilience through self-reliance in critical minerals, especially in rare earths, can help India move closer to its Viksit Bharat aspirations."
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
India to remain among fastest-growing major economies even as growth may moderate in FY26: EY
India's economic growth is expected to moderate in the current fiscal influenced by global and domestic developments and the country may need to rely on a balanced mix of monetary and fiscal policies for sustaining the growth momentum in the near term, an EY report said on Wednesday. India will remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, supported by resilient domestic demand, easing inflation, and an accommodative monetary policy linked to prospects of revival in private investment, according to the EY Economy Watch May edition. "India's economic growth for FY26 is expected to moderate, influenced by a mix of global and domestic developments," it said. As per EY report analysis, global factors are largely contributing to a cautious outlook. These include continuing supply chain disruptions, the impact of recent tariff measures by the US, and broader uncertainties in global trade and geopolitical developments. The report said that in the near term, India may need to rely on a balanced mix of monetary and fiscal policies for sustaining the growth momentum. "On the monetary front, a continuation of the ongoing rate cut cycle could provide support to consumption and investment. On the fiscal side, reviving the momentum in public investment especially GoI's capital expenditure, which witnessed a moderation in growth in FY25, will be important to sustain economic activity," EY said. In February, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25, with economic growth in June, September and December quarters at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 31. In April, the RBI's monetary Policy Committee (MPC), consisting of three central bank members and an equal number of external members, voted unanimously to cut the repurchase or repo rate by 25 basis point to 6 per cent. It had reduced rates by an equal measure in February -- the first cut since May 2020. For 2025-26 fiscal, RBI has projected GDP growth at 6.5 per cent. The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled for June 6.
Hans India
26-04-2025
- Business
- Hans India
EY forecasts 6.5% GDP growth in FY26
New Delhi: Indian economy could grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal as lower prices of crude oil are expected to ease inflationary pressure and support domestic growth, despite intensifying global trade tensions, EY said on Friday. The 'EY Economy Watch' report for April identifies four key interlinked effects which would have a bearing on India's growth — reduced exports, global slowdown, falling crude oil prices, and the impact of global excess production capacities. 'With suitable fiscal and monetary policies, India may be able to sustain a real GDP growth at about 6.5 per cent in FY26 as also in the medium term, while maintaining a CPI inflation below 4 per cent. 'We also expect global crude prices to remain in the range of $60-65/bbl in FY26, which may be to India's advantage,' EY India Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava said. It said exports may slow due to higher tariffs and weakening global demand, but the overall GDP impact may be limited, given the subdued role of net exports in India's recent growth experience. Global slowdown may constrain growth worldwide, but India's relatively strong fiscal space and monetary flexibility provide scope for calibrated stimulus. Excess production capacities in major exporting nations could lead to dumping risks, requiring India to consider targeted anti-dumping measures.
Time of India
25-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India could grow at 6.5% in FY26; falling crude prices to support growth: EY
New Delhi, Indian economy could grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal as lower prices of crude oil are expected to ease inflationary pressure and support domestic growth, despite intensifying global trade tensions , EY said on Friday. The ' EY Economy Watch ' report for April identifies four key interlinked effects which would have a bearing on India's growth - reduced exports, global slowdown, falling crude oil prices, and the impact of global excess production capacities. "With suitable fiscal and monetary policies, India may be able to sustain a real GDP growth at about 6.5 per cent in FY26 as also in the medium term, while maintaining a CPI inflation below 4 per cent. "We also expect global crude prices to remain in the range of USD 60-65/bbl in FY26, which may be to India's advantage," EY India Chief Policy Advisor D K Srivastava said. It said exports may slow due to higher tariffs and weakening global demand, but the overall GDP impact may be limited, given the subdued role of net exports in India's recent growth experience. Global slowdown may constrain growth worldwide, but India's relatively strong fiscal space and monetary flexibility provide scope for calibrated stimulus. Excess production capacities in major exporting nations could lead to dumping risks, requiring India to consider targeted anti-dumping measures. Falling crude oil prices dropping from USD 75/bbl in early April to USD 65/bbl by mid-month, and remaining within an expected range of USD 60-65 during FY26, is expected to support domestic growth while easing inflationary pressures. "India's response to these global disruptions must be strategic and multi-pronged. We see the potential for India to emerge relatively stronger, provided it continues to manage its macroeconomic fundamentals well through a growth-oriented fiscal policy and accommodative monetary stance," Srivastava said. EY Economy Watch suggests that India's short-term strategy could include switching part of its crude oil imports to the US thereby improving trade balance and lowering its reciprocal tariff rate. A comprehensive bilateral trade agreement, expected by September-October 2025, could further enhance trade stability with the US. From a medium to long-term perspective, the EY Economy Watch underscores the importance of accelerating reforms in land and labour, investing in education, skilling and emerging technologies like AI and GenAI, and expanding PLI coverage. The EY report also recommends that India should deepen trade ties with the UK, EU, and select regional partners. "With proactive macroeconomic management and external sector realignment, India appears well-positioned to maintain growth momentum despite global headwinds," the report said. EY's India growth projections for 2025-26 are within the range of 6.2-6.7 per cent projected by global agencies. The economy is estimated to have grown at 6.5 per cent in the last fiscal (2024-25). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank project growth to be 6.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively in FY26 While the RBI and S&P Global Ratings project FY26 growth at 6.5 per cent, the OECD and Fitch Ratings forecast GDP expansion at 6.4 per cent amid the ongoing tariff war and uncertainty over the US trade policy. On April 2, US President Donald Trump had announced reciprocal tariffs or taxes on imports from other countries to match the duties levied by those countries on imports from the US. On April 9, the US administration authorised a 90-day pause on the implementation of most reciprocal tariffs, reverting to a universal rate of 10 per cent on almost all targeted countries, while raising tariffs on most goods from China to 145 per cent. On April 16, the US further hiked tariffs on exports from China to 245 per cent.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
25-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India could grow at 6.5% in FY26, aided by falling crude prices: EY
Indian economy could grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal as lower prices of crude oil are expected to ease inflationary pressure and support domestic growth, despite intensifying global trade tensions, EY said on Friday. The 'EY Economy Watch' report for April identifies four key interlinked effects which would have a bearing on India's growth reduced exports, global slowdown, falling crude oil prices, and the impact of global excess production capacities. "With suitable fiscal and monetary policies, India may be able to sustain a real GDP growth at about 6.5 per cent in FY26 as also in the medium term, while maintaining a CPI inflation below 4 per cent. "We also expect global crude prices to remain in the range of $60-65/bbl in FY26, which may be to India's advantage," EY India Chief Policy Advisor D K Srivastava said. It said exports may slow due to higher tariffs and weakening global demand, but the overall GDP impact may be limited, given the subdued role of net exports in India's recent growth experience. Global slowdown may constrain growth worldwide, but India's relatively strong fiscal space and monetary flexibility provide scope for calibrated stimulus. Excess production capacities in major exporting nations could lead to dumping risks, requiring India to consider targeted anti-dumping measures. Falling crude oil prices dropping from $75/bbl in early April to $65/bbl by mid-month, and remaining within an expected range of $60-65 during FY26, is expected to support domestic growth while easing inflationary pressures. "India's response to these global disruptions must be strategic and multi-pronged. We see the potential for India to emerge relatively stronger, provided it continues to manage its macroeconomic fundamentals well through a growth-oriented fiscal policy and accommodative monetary stance," Srivastava said. EY Economy Watch suggests that India's short-term strategy could include switching part of its crude oil imports to the US thereby improving trade balance and lowering its reciprocal tariff rate. A comprehensive bilateral trade agreement, expected by September-October 2025, could further enhance trade stability with the US. From a medium to long-term perspective, the EY Economy Watch underscores the importance of accelerating reforms in land and labour, investing in education, skilling and emerging technologies like AI and GenAI, and expanding PLI coverage. The EY report also recommends that India should deepen trade ties with the UK, EU, and select regional partners. "With proactive macroeconomic management and external sector realignment, India appears well-positioned to maintain growth momentum despite global headwinds," the report said. EY's India growth projections for 2025-26 are within the range of 6.2-6.7 per cent projected by global agencies. The economy is estimated to have grown at 6.5 per cent in the last fiscal (2024-25). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank project growth to be 6.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively in FY26 While the RBI and S&P Global Ratings project FY26 growth at 6.5 per cent, the OECD and Fitch Ratings forecast GDP expansion at 6.4 per cent amid the ongoing tariff war and uncertainty over the US trade policy. On April 2, US President Donald Trump had announced reciprocal tariffs or taxes on imports from other countries to match the duties levied by those countries on imports from the US. On April 9, the US administration authorised a 90-day pause on the implementation of most reciprocal tariffs, reverting to a universal rate of 10 per cent on almost all targeted countries, while raising tariffs on most goods from China to 145 per cent. On April 16, the US further hiked tariffs on exports from China to 245 per cent.
