Tariffs didn't bite the stock market in May, but June could be a different story
The strong performance for stocks in May could be a sign that Wall Street has decided to shrug off President Donald Trump's tariff plans, but there are some reasons to think the impact on trade will be harder to avoid in the months ahead. For one, global trade does not appear to have found a new equilibrium just yet. Container ship departures from China to the U.S. are trending lower again, and as of late May were down almost half from the same time a year ago, according to a chart shared by Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok. "The court ruling and reversal over the past few days is not making it easier for businesses to decide if they should import now or wait," Slok said in a note Friday. Add in Trump's accusation on Friday that China has " violated " the preliminary trade agreement reached earlier this month, and it's hard to blame companies who might be hesitant to place that next import order. Inflation is another factor that is still up in the air. Friday's personal consumption index data came in a tick lower than expected , but that reading was for April. Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street, told CNBC that her firm's data shows a recent uptick in prices for household goods and electronics. That could lead to continued pressure on stocks like tech hardware and retail, many of which are already trailing the broader market in 2025. XRT YTD mountain This retail ETF is underperforming the S & P 500 in 2025. "You see a preference for producers and strong selling of retailers ... You have producers who are passing on the price increases to retailers, and now it's up to retailers to pass those price increases on to the consumer," Seder said. Of course, just because the impact of tariffs may not be fully seen yet does not mean the stock market must re-test its lows from April. Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown said on Friday's " Halftime Report " on CNBC that the issues of some companies, such as struggling retailers, "pale in comparison" to the stronger parts of the market, like Big Tech. But with most trade routes operating under an ever changing and legally uncertain cloud, the summer just might present more challenges for the current bull market.
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Associated Press
14 minutes ago
- Associated Press
The election of a Trump ally in Poland could alter EU and Ukraine policies
WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland has elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and staunch nationalist, as its next president in a closely watched vote that signals a resurgence of right-wing populism in the heart of Europe. Nawrocki, who is set to take office on Aug. 6, is expected to shape the country's domestic and foreign policy in ways that could strain ties with Brussels while aligning the Central European nation of nearly 38 million people more closely with the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States. Here are some key takeaways: Conservative populism on the rise Nawrocki's victory underscores the enduring appeal of nationalist rhetoric among about half of the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union, and its deep social divisions. The 42-year-old historian who had no previous political experience built his campaign on patriotic themes, traditional Catholic values, and a vow to defend Poland's sovereignty against the EU and larger European nations like Germany. His win also reflects the appeal of right-wing nationalism across Europe, where concerns about migration, national sovereignty, and cultural identity have led to surging support for parties on the right — even the far right in recent times. Far-right candidates did very well in Poland's first round of voting two weeks earlier, underlining the appeal of the nationalist and conservative views. Nawrocki picked up many of those votes. As his supporters celebrate his win, those who voted for the defeated liberal candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, worry that it will hasten the erosion of liberal democratic norms. Prime Minister Donald Tusk's troubles Nawrocki's presidency presents a direct challenge to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who returned to power in late 2023 pledging to mend relations with the EU and restore judicial independence which Brussels said was eroded by Law and Justice, the party that backed Nawrocki. But Tusk's coalition — a fragile alliance of centrists, leftists, and agrarian conservatives — has struggled to push through key promises including a civil union law for same-sex couples and a less restrictive abortion law. Nawrocki, who opposes such measures, will have the power to veto legislation, complicating Tusk's agenda and potentially triggering political gridlock. Ties with the Trump administration Nawrocki's election could signal a stronger relationship between Poland and the Trump administration. Poland and the U.S. are close allies, and there are 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in Poland, but Tusk and his partners in the past have been critical of Trump. Nawrocki, however, has a worldview closely aligned with Trump and his Make America Great Again ethos. Trump welcomed Nawrocki to the White House a month ago and his administration made clear in other ways that he was its preferred candidate. A shifting focus on Ukraine While Nawrocki has voiced support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression, he does not back Ukrainian membership in NATO and has questioned the long-term costs of aid — particularly support for refugees. His rhetoric has at times echoed that of Trump, for instance by accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of what he said was insufficient gratitude for Poland's assistance. With growing public fatigue over helping Ukrainian refugees, Nawrocki's approach could shift Poland's posture from strong ally to conditional partner if the war drags on much longer. Ties with the EU The election result is a setback for the EU, which had welcomed Tusk's return in 2023 as a signal of renewed pro-European engagement. Nawrocki and the Law and Justice party have criticized what nationalists view as EU overreach into Poland's national affairs, especially regarding judicial reforms and migration policy. While the president does not control day-to-day diplomacy, Nawrocki's symbolic and veto powers could frustrate Brussels' efforts to bring Poland back into alignment with bloc standards, particularly on rule-of-law issues. Market jitters Though an EU member, Poland has its own currency, the zloty, which weakened slightly on Monday morning, reflecting investor concerns over potential policy instability and renewed tensions with EU institutions. Billions of euros in EU funding has been linked to judicial reforms which Tusk's government will now be unlikely to enact without presidential cooperation.
CNBC
17 minutes ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: It's a dicey matter to play 'chicken' in markets
When threatened, birds puff up their feathers to appear larger than they actually are, and squawk to signal aggression. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested he would no longer be "Mr. NICE GUY" to China after the country "totally violated" its trade agreement with America. The same day, Trump said he would raise tariffs on steel imports to 50% from 25%. The escalations follow a détente in May, during which Trump reached a trade deal with the U.K., agreed with Beijing to sharply reduce reciprocal import duties and delayed for more than a month a tariff of 50% on the European Union — two days after announcing it. Those glad tidings lifted stocks. For May, the S&P 500 rose 6.2% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 9.6%, with both indexes enjoying their best month since November 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.9% for the month. But the mood among investors might change quickly, depending on communication coming from the White House. The word "chicken" is used as a metaphor for cowardice. In reality, they can be dangerous — there have been reports of humans being killed by Colonel Sanders' favorite bird. Asia markets start June in the redU.S. markets traded mixed Friday. The S&P 500 was flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32%. Futures tied to the three indexes ticked down Sunday evening stateside. Asia-Pacific stocks fell Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 1.9% and Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.32% at 1:30 p.m. Singapore time. Expected Trump-Xi talkTrade tensions between China and the U.S. are escalating. On Monday, Beijing claimed that the White House's "export control measures" breach the two countries' agreement reached in Geneva, Switzerland, refuting Trump's claim on Friday that China has "TOTALLY VIOLATED" it. That said, reconciliation could happen as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss trade negotiations "this week," U.S. National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said on Sunday. Trump says he'll double steel tariffsTrump on Friday told steelworkers at U.S. Steel that he will raise import duties on steel to 50% from 25%. The new import duties will start June 4, the president posted on Truth Social. On Saturday, the European Union said it is "prepared to impose countermeasures, including in response to the latest U.S. tariff increase." Even so, "tariffs are not going away," U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on "Fox News Sunday." Musk cuts himself from DOGEElon Musk bid farewell to his role at the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency Friday. Musk said on Sunday that he doesn't want to "take responsibility for everything the administration's doing," expressing disappointment at the White House's "massive spending bill." Tesla shares lost 14% this year amid Musk's involvement in politics, but gained 22% in May following Musk's April statement he would spend less time at DOGE. Australia's Soul Patts and Brickworks to mergeShares of Australian investment firm Washington H. Soul Pattinson, also known as Soul Patts, spiked more than 15%, and its affiliate Brickworks rocketed over 25% after both companies announced a merger of 14 billion Australian dollars ($9 billion). As part of the deal, a new company listed in Sydney will acquire all outstanding shares of Soul Patts and Brickworks. The merged entity will have holdings across real estate, private equity and credit totaling A$13.1 billion. [PRO] May jobs report in focusThe U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May, out Friday, will provide more information on how the economy is holding up amid Trump's multiple tariffs —and play a big role in determining whether the May rally in stocks still has legs. Economists expect the number of jobs added in May to dip from April. It misses the forecast, markets could take a downturn as the White House appears to ratchet up its tariff rhetoric. Investors are piling into big, short Treasury bets alongside Warren Buffett Investors always pay close attention to bonds, and what the latest movement in prices and yields is saying about the economy. Right now, the action is telling investors to stick to the shorter-end of the fixed-income market with their maturities. Long-term treasuries and long-term corporate bonds have posted negative performance since September, which is very rare, said Todd Sohn, senior ETF and technical strategist at Strategas Securities, on "ETF Edge." The only other time that's happened in modern times was during the Financial Crisis," he added. "It is hard to argue against short-term duration bonds right now." It would seem that Warren Buffett agrees, with Berkshire Hathaway doubling its ownership of T-bills and now owning 5% of all short-term Treasuries, according to a recent JPMorgan report.
Business Upturn
41 minutes ago
- Business Upturn
India's manufacturing PMI slips to 3-month low in May, employment hits record high
India's manufacturing sector remained in expansion mode in May 2025, although momentum softened compared to April, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by S&P Global. The PMI dipped to 57.6 in May from 58.2 in April — a three-month low — signaling a slower pace of growth in output and new orders. Despite the decline, the reading remained well above the neutral 50-mark and its long-run average of 54.1. According to the HSBC report, while domestic and international demand continued to support business activity, cost inflation, intense market competition, and concerns surrounding the India-Pakistan conflict acted as drags on growth. Manufacturers reported notable increases in selling prices, driven by higher input costs — the steepest seen in nearly a year. One standout in the data was employment. May witnessed the highest rate of job creation since the survey began, with permanent roles rising significantly. Firms also ramped up their input purchases to meet future demand, even as inventory of finished goods fell for the sixth consecutive month. New export orders rose strongly, with firms citing better demand from the US, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Despite the challenges, sentiment for future output remained robust, driven by marketing efforts and fresh customer enquiries. Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Economic indicators like PMI are subject to revisions and contextual interpretation. Please consult official sources or financial experts before making business decisions. Aditya Bhagchandani serves as the Senior Editor and Writer at Business Upturn, where he leads coverage across the Business, Finance, Corporate, and Stock Market segments. With a keen eye for detail and a commitment to journalistic integrity, he not only contributes insightful articles but also oversees editorial direction for the reporting team.
