Outside mediation now crucial for Pakistan and India

New Straits Times

10-05-2025

KARACHI: With the risk of dangerous escalation between India and Pakistan at its highest in decades, only international mediation can prevent a spiral into full-scale conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals, analysts say.
Pakistan said it launched counterattacks on Saturday after India struck three of its air bases overnight, following days of missile, artillery and drone strikes across the border.
It is the first time since the India-Pakistan war of 1971 – before both became nuclear powers – that they have struck deep into each other's territory, reaching as far as Karachi on the Arabian Sea coast.
These strikes have also killed civilians far from Kashmir – the death toll on both sides now exceeds 60 – further increasing expectations on New Delhi and Islamabad to respond forcefully.
"Civilian casualties change the entire situation and put both governments under tremendous public pressure," said Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst for the International Crisis Group.
"Both powers on their own are not going to de-escalate."
Conflicts in more recent times have mostly been confined to areas in or near Kashmir, the Himalayan territory divided between the two countries – and claimed in full by both – following independence in 1947.
Most recently in 2019, such flare-ups followed a pattern of brief, intense strikes and counter-strikes, followed by a willingness on both sides to de-escalate.
"In this case, emotions and mistrust are so high that international mediation will be of the essence," said Michael Kugelman, a Washington DC-based South Asia analyst.
"There's still no clear path to an off-ramp."
There have been global calls for restraint, but analysts agree that actual mediation from the United States, United Kingdom or Gulf Arab states is now urgent.
"The efforts haven't been as serious as they could have been, given that these are two nuclear countries with a history of fighting each other," said Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
The latest developments – including claims of targeting each other's air bases – should now "send international efforts into overdrive," Basit said.
"They need to knock some sense into their heads that this war is happening over populated areas – that one incident could suddenly turn into a nuclear flashpoint," he added.
US Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday that the conflict was "fundamentally none of our business", in remarks that suggested President Donald Trump's White House was not inclined to get involved.
However, that position now appears to have shifted, with Washington announcing early Saturday that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had spoken to the foreign ministers of both India and Pakistan for the first time since the crisis began.
Rubio also held talks with Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir, considered the country's key powerbroker.
Rubio "emphasised that both sides need to identify methods to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation," the State Department said.
Senior ministers from Iran and Saudi Arabia have also visited both countries in recent days.
The last conflict in 2019 – centred around Kashmir and away from major population centres – ended with both sides claiming victory following mediation by the United States.
"But what we're seeing now is unprecedented. We've not seen these types of attacks before – missiles, drones, planes sent over populated cities," said Basit.
"It's a new playbook," he added, with mediators needed to "help with the victory narrative for both sides" in order to facilitate de-escalation.
The flare-up stems from an attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month, in which 26 people were shot dead – an incident for which New Delhi has blamed Islamabad.
Pakistan has denied any involvement and called for an impartial investigation.
On Wednesday, India launched missile attacks, striking mosques and seminaries in several cities it labelled "terrorist" targets, killing more than 20 people including children.
"It was an unusually brutal attack on civilians who were singled out for their religion, and that set the tone for India's response," Kugelman said, adding that India wants to demonstrate it has "zero tolerance for terrorism."
Pakistan insists it is being punished for something it did not do.
"People in Pakistan are fed up of being blamed so often for things they say they have nothing to do with," Kugelman said.
"If Pakistan were to hold back, that could be politically damaging because there is such a strong public view that more needs to be done."
Both countries have given their military operations religious names, appealing to strongly devout sentiments among their populations.
Rebels in Indian-administered Kashmir have waged an insurgency since 1989, seeking either independence or a merger with Pakistan.
India regularly accuses Pakistan of supporting armed groups fighting its forces in Kashmir, a charge Islamabad denies.
Relations have deteriorated under Prime Minister Modi's more than 10-year Hindu nationalist government, which in 2019 brought Muslim-majority Indian Kashmir under direct rule.
"In the long term, Kashmir is going to destabilise relations for at least another decade," said Donthi.