Julius Baer sees consumption revival in India taking stocks to record high
Julius Baer
Group is expecting
Indian stocks
to hit a new high in the second half of the fiscal year, as domestic consumption recovers.
'The biggest theme going forward will be a revival in consumption in India,' Nitin Raheja, head of discretionary equities at Julius Baer India, said in an interview. One third of his portfolio is in consumption-linked themes, and he's increasing bets on retailers focused on tier-two cities and apparel firms.
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Lower- and middle-income segments will lead the pickup in India's consumer spending, aided by slowing inflation, abundant monsoon rains and income-tax cuts, said Raheja, who oversees portfolio management services and alternative investment funds for the Zurich-based wealth manager in India.
ETMarkets.com
There was a K-shaped recovery in India after the Covid-19 pandemic, and the bottom part which suffered the most will likely now see a revival, he added.
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While elevated valuations could keep the market 'range-bound' in the next few months, Raheja expects the benchmark
NSE Nifty 50 Index
to scale fresh highs after October, as consumer demand flows into corporate profits.
The gauge is 4.6% away from its peak set in September and the central bank's jumbo rate cut Friday is further raising expectations of a record-breaking surge.
'Private consumption, the mainstay of aggregate demand, remains healthy, with a gradual rise in discretionary spending,' Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Friday. 'Rural demand remains steady, while urban demand is improving.'
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