Oil little changed as investors await next steps in Ukraine peace talks
Brent crude futures were at $65.90 a barrel, up 11 cents, at 0405 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery, set to expire on Wednesday, were at $62.40 a barrel, up 5 cents. The more-active October contract was at $61.90 a barrel, up 13 cents.
Prices settled down more than 1% on Tuesday on optimism a deal to end the war seemed closer, which would mean the easing sanctions on Russia and an increase in global supply.
"Crude markets are in limbo... continued protracted peace talks will keep the market on its toes," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG.
Despite comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday the U.S. might provide air support as part of a deal to end Russia's war in the country, he also conceded Russian President Vladimir Putin might not want to make a deal after all.
Trump on Monday said he was arranging a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskiy, to be followed by a trilateral summit among the three presidents.
Trump said on Tuesday he discussed holding possible talks between Zelenskiy and Putin in Hungary with the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Russia has not confirmed it will take part in talks with Zelenskiy.
"The likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict with Russia now seems unlikely," said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, in a note on Wednesday.
In the U.S., BP (BP.L), opens new tab said on Tuesday operations at its 440,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Whiting, Indiana, were affected due to flooding caused by a severe thunderstorm overnight, potentially weighing on the facility's crude demand. The site is a key fuel producer for the Midwest market.
Prices found some support as industry inventory report indicated steady crude and fuel demand in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.42 million barrels in the week ended August 15, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.
Gasoline inventories fell by 956,000 barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 535,000 barrels from last week, the sources said.
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The Independent
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Putin and Zelensky have only met once before – here's what happened
Ukraine's leader Volodymyr Zelensky may soon meet Russian president Vladimir Putin again, for the first time since 2019. A summit in Paris six years ago was the first and only time the two presidents ever met, flanked by French president Emmanuel Macron and Germany's then-chancellor Angela Merkel. At the time, Putin and Zelensky were looking to hash out a ceasefire deal for war in Donbas in Ukraine's east, where Russia-backed forces were fighting Ukrainian troops. The two world leaders are now potentially set for another meeting as part of US president Donald Trump's bid to end the devastating Ukraine war. However, this is far from set in stone with Putin's initial suggestion that it could take place in Moscow quickly rejected by the Ukrainian president. What happened in 2019? Ukrainian forces and Russian separatists had been embroiled in conflict in Donbas, in Ukraine's east, since 2014. Zelensky and Putin travelled to Paris in December 2019 for the Normandy Format Summit, a diplomatic forum designed by French, German, Russian and Ukrainian diplomats after the outbreak of conflict. The Ukrainian president had been elected just months earlier in spring that year - his first role in political office - beating former foreign minister Petro Poroshenko to the presidency. The summit in Paris led to progress, but was not groundbreaking. The two sides agreed to implement 'all necessary ceasefire support measures' before the end of 2019 and to release all the prisoners of war. Both sides also expressed their desire to implement the Minsk agreements signed in 2014 and 2015, the first attempt to achieve a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia after Putin's forces rolled into and took over the Crimean peninsula. What did the leaders say about each other? The mood between the pair was chilly at first. There was no public handshake and they are said to have largely avoided eye contact during the meeting. Clean shaven and sporting a suit, 2019 Zelensky cut a strikingly different figure compared to his more familiar appearance now as a war-time leader. After the summit, Putin hailed the talks as an 'important step' towards de-escalation. He expressed what at the time appeared to be cautious hope: "All this gives us the grounds to suppose that the process is developing in the right direction.' Zelensky also hailed the meeting as a 'big step towards peace'. When he was asked by reporters who he believed had emerged victorious from the exchanges with his Russian counterpart, he said: "I don't know who (beat) who. I think it would be appropriate to be diplomatic as we've just started talking. Let's say for now it's a draw." What happened afterwards? Despite a number of prisoner exchanges, the 2019 meeting was not a catalyst for any major long-term change in Russo-Ukrainian relations - and little over two years later Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Several key sticking points remained after the 2019 negotiations. Kyiv continued to demand the withdrawal of Russian-backed troops and a complete ceasefire, with a return of border control to Ukraine. Russia insisted that before Ukraine regained control of its eastern border, local elections should be held in the occupied territories. Putin also demanded that Donbas have a special constitutional status in Ukraine, to give it a degree of autonomy. In January 2022, just weeks before the full-scale Russian invasion, the summit in Paris took place again, but was attended by officials from the same four countries, rather than their leaders. Senior diplomats met in February 2022 in an attempt to prevent a conflict. After the Russian invasion on 24 February, Zelensky said the invasion had 'ruined' the progress made by the Normandy Format.
The Independent
29 minutes ago
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Trump ‘prepared to crush Russia's economy if Putin turns down peace talks'
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The Guardian
29 minutes ago
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For six months Donald Trump has been calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. His position abruptly changed after his summit last week with Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The US now supports a final settlement of the war first, which is Russia's negotiating position. What changed? And where does Trump's latest flip-flop leave prospects for an end to the fighting? Since spring the White House has been urging Russia to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine. As Donald Trump put it in March: 'I think the ceasefire is very important. If we can get Russia to do it, that'll be great.' The US president threatened to impose sanctions on Moscow, and on buyers of its oil such as India, if it refused. He gave various deadlines, which came and went. Until last week the US continued its demand for a 30-day pause in the fighting, to which Kyiv agreed. Speaking on his plane to Alaska on Friday, before a meeting with Putin, Trump repeated his demand. There would be 'severe consequences' if a ceasefire didn't happen. 'I'm not going to be happy,' he said. The US president's position dramatically shifted after his meeting Putin. Exactly why is uncertain. But in the face of Russian opposition, Trump dropped his call for a ceasefire and instead embraced the Kremlin's preferred 'plan' to end the war. This envisages a comprehensive peace settlement first. Until that happens, Moscow will carry on bombing. Trump also agreed to Russia's territorial claims. Putin wants Ukraine to cede the northern part of Donetsk oblast – including the fortress cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – which Russian troops have been unable to conquer since 2014. By way of so-called concession, Russia reportedly said it would freeze the frontlines in southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces. The change in US policy on a Ukraine ceasefire was the summit's most significant outcome. It amounts to a major concession to the Russians. In his meeting on Monday with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, Trump explained his new way of thinking. He said there was no need for a truce and claimed he had ended six conflicts without one. 'I didn't do any ceasefire,' he said. He said he would still 'like them [the Russians] to stop' but said a pause in hostilities might disadvantage 'one side or the other'. Russia wants to continue its war. Over the summer Russian troops have seized villages in the Donbas, and have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region – which borders Donetsk oblast – for the first time. Russia's progress is gradual and achieved with heavy casualties. Putin believes he is winning and that time is on his side. His maximalist demands are unchanged since the 2022 invasion. He wants Zelenskyy removed, severe limits put on the size of Ukraine's army, and a veto on its Nato membership. Any ceasefire would in effect divide territory along the existing 1,000-km long frontline. A permanent peace plan, by contrast, could involve one side giving land to the other as part of a deal. Putin's conditions are unacceptable to Kyiv, and amount to Ukraine's surrender. Ukrainians believe he is using Trump to take what Russian forces have been unable to capture on the battlefield – with DC the quickest route to victory in Donetsk. When negotiations fail – the most likely outcome in the short term – Putin will inevitably blame Zelenskyy. Frustrated. European leaders have urged Trump to put pressure on Russia to agree a ceasefire before any negotiations take place. On Monday, they reinforced this message in the White House. Britain's Keir Starmer joined Zelenskyy in Washington, with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Finland, Nato and the EU. Their task was to protect Zelenskyy – in the end his meeting with Trump went better than the last encounter in February – and to tactfully convey Ukraine and Europe's principled anti-landgrab position. The Europeans are opposed to any deal that would reward Russian aggression. Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, expressed his support for a ceasefire. 'Let's work on that and let's try to put pressure on Russia,' the German leader told Trump. France's president, Emmanuel Macron, said European governments would eventually need to be included in any peace talks. After Trump's unexplained U-turn, Ukraine's EU allies are using a new formula to try to win him over to the idea of a ceasefire – 'stop the killing'. Wars can stop without formal peace treaties. In 1953 an armistice ended the war between North and South Korea. It established a demilitarised zone between the two states, the DMZ, dividing the peninsula. Military commanders from the US, China and North Korea signed the deal. South Korea's leader refused, because it left Korea split. Technically, the two Koreas are still in a state of war. The ceasefire, though, has lasted more than eight decades, despite breeches by Pyongyang. This model could work in Ukraine. No Ukrainian government is likely to accept Russian occupation over parts of its territory. But it might be prepared to acknowledge the Kremlin's de facto control as part of temporary settlement. Putin, however, is against the idea of a Korea-style armistice. His goal is to subjugate Ukraine – all of it, or as much as he can get – and to fold it into a reinvigorated greater Russia.
