Ready for her close-up: Nicole Scherzinger takes the lead in Tony odds for Best Actress in a Musical
For the first time since the Tony Award nominations were announced, Nicole Scherzinger has taken the lead in Gold Derby's odds to win Best Actress in a Musical.
In this incredibly competitive Broadway season, our combined predictions have been surprisingly steady in many of the top categories. Even Best Actress, which has been seen as a close race since the start, has been consistent in favoring Audra McDonald for Gypsy, with Scherzinger's Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard in second, and Broadway breakout Jasmine Amy Rogers in the title role of Boop! The Musical in third. The category is rounded out by Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard from Death Becomes Her.
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Scherzinger has long had the majority of our users predicting her to win, but has not been able to break out of second place because of the number of experts and editors who have favored McDonald. Our experts still overwhelmingly support McDonald for the victory, with seven backing the six-time Tony winner to the four who think Olivier Award-winning Scherzinger will repeat stateside. Now Scherzinger has a slim majority of editors predicting her in a 5-to-4 split between her and McDonald.
SEE 'Sunset Boulevard' star Tom Francis reveals how he plays 'the complete and utter opposite' of Nicole Scherzinger's Norma Desmond
This odds development follows many twists and turns in the Best Actress category throughout the Broadway awards season. At the Outer Critics Circle Awards, Scherzinger faced both McDonald and Rogers — along with Simard, Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending) and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) — in the Lead Performer in a Musical category but lost to Rogers. Days later, Scherzinger won the Drama League Award for Distinguished Performance in a field of 51 thespians, a prize that a performer may only win once in their career; she notably bested Hilty, Simard, and Rogers in this category, but McDonald was not eligible as she received the prize back in 2012 for The Gershwins' Porgy and Bess.
The Drama League victor often goes on to win the Tony in their respective field. But at Sunday's Drama Desk Awards, Scherzinger lost to both McDonald and Rogers for the Lead Performance in a Musical prize; this awards body has gender-free categories and thus opts to give two trophies per race. Although the voting bodies of these various groups do not extensively overlap with Tony voters, their decisions speak to perceptions within the industry and, in this case, the lack of consensus in this race.
One large factor in Scherzinger's favor is the perceived strength of Sunset Boulevard across other categories at the Tonys. The revival has the most overall nominations versus Gypsy and Boop! with seven to their five and three, respectively. Our current odds have Sunset out front for Best Musical Revival and Best Director for Jamie Lloyd, though it did not win either of those categories at the Drama Desk, where the prizes went to Gypsy and Maybe Happy Ending's director Michael Arden. Gold Derby also projects Sunset to win Lighting Design.
1. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard – 11/5 2. Audra McDonald, Gypsy – 51/20 3. Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical – 5/1 4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her – 7/1 5. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her – 8/1
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