Big Ten football power rankings for 2025 season, per ESPN's FPI
Big Ten football power rankings for 2025 season, per ESPN's FPI
Another notable college football offseason domino fell earlier this week when ESPN released its updated Football Power Index for the upcoming season. When compared to ESPN's SP+ and other rating metrics, FPI's release continues to develop a comprehensive look at the upcoming season, judging each team based on its perceived quality.
As a reminder, here is how ESPN describes the metric's methodology.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
More specifically, June 2's FPI release gives us yet another projection of the 2025 Big Ten season, complete with each team's percent chance to win the conference and/or reach the College Football Playoff. Here is that projection, which is notably skeptical of one consensus Cinderella contender.
18. Purdue Boilermakers
FPI Rating: -6.9 (No. 92 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 3.2 - 8.8
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.0
% Chance to Make CFP: 0.0
Purdue has a measured outlook entering 2025. Given the circumstances of the full roster and program overhaul after a 1-11 2024 season, even a three-win season would mark a step in the right direction. Barry Odom excelled at UNLV. He now faces a tough situation in West Lafayette.
17. Northwestern Wildcats
FPI Rating: -3.6 (No. 74 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 4.1 - 7.9
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.0
% Chance to Make CFP: 0.0
Northwestern and Purdue mark the Big Ten's clear bottom tier entering 2025. The Wildcats even did well to win four games last year, given a near Football Bowl Subdivision-worst offense (No. 128 of 134) and below-average defense (No. 79 of 134). 2025 is a critical year for head coach David Braun to prove that 2023's 8-5 output was not an anomaly.
16. Maryland Terrapins
FPI Rating: 1.9 (No. 61 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 5.9 - 6.1
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.2
% Chance to Make CFP: 1.3
Maryland should be in striking range of a bowl trip in 2025, according to FPI. A postseason bid would stabilize a program that appears to be regressing after a 4-8 finish in 2024. Toss-up games against Rutgers and Michigan State could decide that bowl fate.
15. Michigan State Spartans
FPI Rating: 2.3 (No. 59 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 5.2 - 6.8
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.1
% Chance to Make CFP: 1.0
Michigan State should have a much higher ceiling than a top-60 team in the country, especially given the potential of underclassman quarterback Aidan Chiles. Spartans fans will be on the edge of their seats entering the year, however, given the team's 5-7 finish in 2024 and current recruiting struggles.
Get more (Michigan State) news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
FPI Rating: 3.5 (No. 55 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 5.8 - 6.2
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.1
% Chance to Make CFP: 1.7
Rutgers' streak of two consecutive bowl trips and three in four years could come to an end in 2025. The team was forced to rebuild most of its defense after a senior-heavy group moved on after the 2024 season. With quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis leading a low-risk, low-reward offense, a 6-6 finish would be a major win.
13. UCLA Bruins
FPI Rating: 4.6 (No. 47 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 5.4 - 6.6
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.1
% Chance to Make CFP: 1.9
UCLA may be a bit underrated by FPI. After the team showed well against a gauntlet schedule in 2024, head coach DeShaun Foster and his staff got a full offseason of roster movement, headlined by the addition of former Tennessee starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Foster had to scramble after taking over for Chip Kelly in February of last year. More continuity and a manageable schedule could lead to a breakthrough season.
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
12. Illinois Fighting Illini
FPI Rating: 5.0 (No. 44 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 6.8 - 5.2
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.6
% Chance to Make CFP: 3.8
This is one spot where FPI significantly differs from other rankings and preseason projections. Illinois is a popular College Football Playoff pick. The team returns most of a group that finished 2024 with double-digit wins, plus is set to face a manageable schedule. All signs point toward a much better finish than mid-40s nationally and No. 13 in the Big Ten.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
FPI Rating: 5.2 (No. 43 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 6.9 - 5.2
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.3
% Chance to Make CFP: 4.3
A 7-5 finish and mid-40s ranking would be more of the same for Minnesota. The program has made a bowl game in each of the last six non-COVID seasons. At the same time, it has surpassed 10 wins only once during that time (11 wins in 2019). Unless redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey breaks out unexpectedly, seven or eight wins seem likely.
10. Iowa Hawkeyes
FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 39 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 6.2 - 5.8
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.6
% Chance to Make CFP: 3.7
The Big Ten impressively boasts 10 teams within the nation's top 40. Iowa is a write-in for that category every year, regardless of the team's specific makeup. It put all its chips into Football Championship Subdivision transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski this offseason. If he hits, the Hawkeyes could return to a 10-win mark.
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
9. Wisconsin Badgers
FPI Rating: 6.3 (No. 38 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 5.6 - 6.5
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.4
% Chance to Make CFP: 2.6
This is where team quality shouldn't be confused with record and resume. Wisconsin could very well be a better team than it's been over the last two years under Luke Fickell. But given a schedule that ranks among the toughest in the sport, a bowl trip would feel like a major win.
8. Indiana Hoosiers
FPI Rating: 8.3 (No. 31 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 7.5 - 4.5
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.9
% Chance to Make CFP: 8.9
File FPI into the group of metrics that are predicting a bit of a regression from Indiana in 2025. Most agree that the Hoosiers' 11-win 2024 season will be tough to replicate, given the team's schedule alone. The better question is, how high is Indiana's floor under Curt Cignetti? Another nine-win season could seriously change how we view the program.
7. Washington Huskies
FPI Rating: 8.8 (No. 27 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 7.1 - 4.9
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 0.8
% Chance to Make CFP: 8.1
Washington is a team to watch in 2025. Like UCLA, the Huskies will benefit from a full year of roster improvement and overall continuity. Washington head coach Jedd Fisch was thrust into a challenging situation last offseason after Kalen DeBoer left for the Alabama job. His team then showed significant promise through the 2024 campaign. Young quarterback Demond Williams Jr. should headline lists of breakout candidates for 2025.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers
FPI Rating: 9.3 (No. 25 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 7.5 - 4.5
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 1.5
% Chance to Make CFP: 10.3
It isn't a proper college football offseason without high expectations for Nebraska. The team returns 61% of production from a 2024 group that broke the program's extended bowl drought. Its 2025 chances rest on the arm of sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola, who will need to live up to his five-star billing. More than a 10% chance to reach the CFP feels a bit steep.
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
5. USC Trojans
FPI Rating: 13.0 (No. 19 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 8.3 - 3.9
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 4.2
% Chance to Make CFP: 21.0
USC is a high-ceiling, low-floor team in 2025. If its defense takes a major step forward in year two under top coordinator D'Anton Lynn, and if Lincoln Riley develops another NFL passer, the team could contend for the conference. As we saw in 2024, it could also very well be on the fringe of bowl eligibility. Given the program's recent momentum, more signs point to the former.
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
4. Michigan Wolverines
FPI Rating: 14.6 (No. 17 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 8.4 - 3.7
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 6.0
% Chance to Make CFP: 25.3
Michigan is in a tier by itself. It's a bona fide CFP and conference title contender, though it falls far below the conference's top three teams. Quarterback play will decide the Wolverines' fate, especially if five-star freshman Bryce Underwood is under center.
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
3. Oregon Ducks
FPI Rating: 20.5 (No. 6 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 10.0 - 2.4
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 19.1
% Chance to Make CFP: 57.5
Oregon will have a tough time repeating as Big Ten champion. The team lost numerous top contributors from its stellar 2024 team. It now returns just 43% of production (No. 104 in the nation). While the number does not automatically mean a regression, it makes Oregon a team to monitor as the season continues. The Ducks will still be a CFP contender, but a national title run may be out of the picture.
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
FPI Rating: 21.5 (No. 5 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 10.2 - 2.2
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 25.1
% Chance to Make CFP: 63.8
Penn State is the second in the projected three-team race for the conference. Returning stars QB Drew Allar and RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead that projection, as does the program's terrific history on defense. Penn State finally broke through last season. 2025 could see an even further step forward.
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI Rating: 23.8 (No. 4 overall)
Projected Win-Loss: 10.4 - 2.2
% Chance to Win Big Ten: 40.3
% Chance to Make CFP: 70.6
While Ohio State returns just 48% of production from its 2024 team that won the national title, it's hard to expect the program to regress significantly. All-world WR Jeremiah Smith and star S Caleb Downs anchor an offensive and defensive unit, respectively, that each projects among the conference's best. Ohio State is currently the class of the sport, so it deserves the benefit of the doubt at positions facing turnover.
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
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"It was just so sad to see these reports leaked, really unnecessarily before such a celebrated event. 'Doris is a friend. I've asked her many times: 'Why don't you get into coaching?' She has such great knowledge. 'There are many women (now broadcasting NBA games) who she's paved the way for. I'll name a few of them: Sarah Kustok in Brooklyn who does a great job, Lisa Byington in Milwaukee, Kate Scott in Philadelphia, Monica McNutt, New York Knicks. Katy Winge from Denver, Zora Stephenson in Portland, Ann Meyers Drysdale in Phoenix, and Marney Gellner does some play-by-play for games with Minnesota. 'I don't know what's going to happen with all that stuff. But I just want to say thank you to Doris for the example that she has put forth for young women like my daughter and all these people who are changing the game. "She has changed the game. That's the reason that she was inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame a couple of years ago. I just want to say that in support of her.' Soon he's done with us, and walking the hall of Paycom Center. He's heading toward Doris Burke. And as her phone is blowing up, one jolt comes from Rick Carlisle. He's sending her a text message. A story from 15 years ago: At this point, Doris Burke has made a name for herself after analyzing all manner of basketball – NCAA men's and women's, WNBA – and now she's starting to blaze trails: First woman to commentate Knicks games on radio and TV. First woman commentator for a Big East men's game, and to be the lead analyst for a network's conference coverage. First woman to become a full-time national NBA analyst, first woman to call conference and NBA Finals on radio, then TV. But it's not easy, being the first. This isn't the story from 15 years ago – it's coming – but just a few years back Burke was doing a podcast with Miami Heat forward Duncan Robinson, an unlikely NBA story himself after playing at Division III Williams College. They got to talking about their shared experience in the NBA. 'We had a long conversation about imposter syndrome,' Burke says. 'I fight it every it day. I've never pretended to play or coach in the NBA. I consider myself in many ways, a very well-studied fan. This game I'm so passionate about, it has shaped my life since I was 7. Yes, I played college basketball (she was an All-American guard at Providence in 1987) but I kind of go at it the way a fan does. When I was a sideline reporter, the questions I was thinking were: What would I have been thinking at home as a fan? What would I have wanted to know?' So this happened about 15 years ago: Doris Burke is preparing for an NBA game, and her broadcast team is meeting with both coaches about 75 minutes before tipoff – and after finishing, one coach stops on his way out. Doris Burke is telling me this story Thursday night, in the minutes after Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton has just beaten the Thunder in the final second of Game 1. The Paycom Center is still buzzing wildly, not unlike her cell phone before the game, and Burke is standing at her courtside booth, removing all those microphones and earpieces. She's telling me about this meeting 15 years ago, and she's showing me what happened as that coach stopped on his way out the door: 'He grabs me by the shoulders and looks me in the eye,' Burke tells me, then shows me. 'And he says, 'Doris, you are doing an incredible job at this.'' That was how she met Rick Carlisle. They've talked a lot over the years, work and otherwise, professional colleagues and real-world friends. That's why Carlisle texted her Thursday night before his visit with ESPN's broadcast team. He texted her something supportive, something along the lines of what he'd just told the media, and now Burke is confused. 'I'm thinking, 'Oh boy, he's not going to say something out there is he?'' she says. 'Shortly after I have that thought, multiple people hit me with texts about what he's just said.' Burke is grateful, and the emotions are coming. And now there he is, walking into the soundproof interview room. 'He greets us all normally,' Burke says. 'I always hug him, but I just probably squeezed him a little tighter than normal, and I said: 'The article is just part of the business. I didn't really react to it, but I did react to your support of me and I can't thank you enough.' 'I was emotional,' she says, 'no question about it.' Burke is telling me about it, and it's happening again. 'I've said this often,' she says, and she's pausing because the gratitude filling her heart is now reaching up into her throat and catching her words. 'Forgive me here,' she says, then continues. 'The players and the coaches, going back to my time covering every single thing I've ever covered – women's and men's college, WNBA, NBA – the players and coaches have been always my soft landing spot. They have always given me incredible support. And at various times I've expressed gratitude.' Now she wants to be specific, about the supremely public gesture – more than that – Rick Carlisle had made for her before Game 1. 'Think about who Rick Carlisle is as person,' she says. 'He is about to coach Game 1 of the NBA Finals, and he takes the time to reach out to me to make sure I am OK. He is so passionate about the game and everyone who is part of the game. There is a reason he has led the (NBA) coaches association for as long as he has, a reason why he talks to players about getting into coaching and making them believe they can have an impact in this profession. There is a reason when he talks about officials, that he does it with incredible respect. 'It blows me away that in that moment in time, he has the heart to feel for another human being. So incredibly moving to me.' They hug there in the broadcast room, Doris Burke thanks Rick Carlisle, and then it is time to work. 'We got down to the business of basketball,' she says. Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Threads, or on BlueSky and Twitter at @GreggDoyelStar, or at Subscribe to the free weekly Doyel on Demand newsletter.
