CNBC Daily Open: Inflation in the U.S. hit a four-month high in June — as expected

CNBC

16-07-2025

Expectations are a funny thing. When we say that something meets expectations, we tend to mean it in a positive way, suggesting that a hurdle has been cleared or the result is welcome.
But what happens when we expect something bad, and the outcome meets expectations?
The U.S. consumer price index in June, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, matched the Dow Jones consensus estimate. And there was even a pleasant surprise: Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% on the month, which was 0.1 percentage points below expectations.
That said, both the headline and core inflation numbers, on an annual basis, hit their highest since February.
"The latest U.S. inflation report practically confirmed that President Trump's tariffs acted to push up consumer prices in June," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.
Hence, while the inflation figures didn't surprise market watchers and investors — markets really dislike unpredictability — the fact that the downbeat expectations were realized still weighed on stocks, which mostly fell on the news.
As yesterday's market movements illustrate — and as many of us, after going through performance reviews with our supervisors, know — sometimes, meeting expectations isn't good enough.
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