US stock market futures mixed today: S&P 500 steady, Nasdaq climbs on AI rally, Dow drops as Tesla and IBM disappoint
How are the major US index futures trading right now?
Here's where things stand for the top three U.S. index futures in pre-market trading:
Index
Current Level
Change
Sentiment
S&P 500
~6,394.00
–0.04%
Cautiously flat
Nasdaq-100
~23,226.30
+0.28%
Bullish tech
Dow Jones
~44,823.80
–0.41%
Under pressure
S&P 500 futures
are nearly flat, showing a slight negative bias as markets await economic data and Fed signals.
Nasdaq futures
are leading the pack, rising ~0.3% thanks to upbeat tech earnings and strong AI sector momentum.
Dow Jones futures
are lagging, down around 0.4% due to weak industrial and auto sector performances, especially Tesla and IBM.
Which stocks are making the biggest moves this morning?
Let's look at some of the top pre-market gainers and losers across key sectors, especially those impacting futures:
Biggest gainers
West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)
: +17.6% – Boosted by stellar Q2 results.
Icon PLC (ICLR)
: +16.1% – Surged after impressive clinical trial data.
ServiceNow (NOW)
: +7.0% – Raised full-year subscription guidance.
GE Vernova (GEV)
: +14.0% – Strong revenue growth and clean energy optimism.
Lamb Weston (LW)
: +16.0% – Higher sales and margin improvements.
Notable decliners
Tesla (TSLA)
: –5.0% – Despite beating revenue, earnings dropped 23%, and Musk warned of 'rough quarters' ahead.
IBM (IBM)
: –5.3% – Missed profit expectations, dragging Dow futures down.
Chipotle (CMG)
: –11.2% – Slashed same-store sales growth forecast.
Texas Instruments (TXN)
: –13.0% – Weak guidance hit auto chip sentiment.
Other chip names:
Microchip (MCHP)
: –6.0%
ON Semiconductor (ON)
: –4.0%
Analog Devices (ADI)
: –3.0%
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
: –1.0%
What's driving the stock market futures today?
Today's movement in U.S. stock market futures is shaped by a few major themes:
Live Events
1. Tech earnings push Nasdaq futures higher
Strong Q2 results from tech giants are driving investor optimism:
Alphabet (GOOGL)
crushed expectations and raised its capital expenditure outlook to $85 billion, citing demand for AI infrastructure. The stock is up 3.5% in pre-market.
ServiceNow (NOW)
impressed with raised full-year guidance and is trading 7% higher.
This upbeat sentiment is lifting Nasdaq-100 futures and helping offset broader market concerns.
2. Tesla and industrials drag Dow futures lower
Despite revenue growth, Tesla's net income dropped significantly, and CEO Elon Musk warned about challenges in the quarters ahead. This sent shares down 5%, hitting Dow futures hard. IBM's weak results added further pressure.
3. US–Japan and US–EU trade deals boost sentiment
Markets are also reacting to global economic news:
A confirmed
U.S.–Japan trade agreement
and progress on a
U.S.–EU deal
(focused on a unified 15% tariff structure) have lifted risk sentiment across global markets.
These trade headlines are especially positive for S&P 500 futures, which are now trading near record highs.
What economic data is the market watching today?
Investors are closely eyeing today's data releases and upcoming events, which could shift futures direction significantly:
U.S. jobless claims
(expected at 8:30 AM ET): Will offer insight into labor market strength.
S&P Global flash PMI
for July: A key reading on U.S. manufacturing and services health.
New home sales data
: A crucial indicator of consumer confidence and housing demand.
Federal Reserve meeting
(set for July 30): No rate change expected, but traders are pricing in a 62% chance of a rate cut in September.
How are commodities and bond markets reacting?
The broader market tone is mildly risk-on, reflected in movements across oil, gold, and bonds:
Crude oil prices
:
WTI: +1.0%
Brent: +0.8%
Stronger global trade outlook and shrinking U.S. stockpiles are pushing prices higher.
Gold
: Down ~0.8% as safe-haven demand dips.
VIX (Volatility Index)
: Down ~5%, showing calm in equity markets.
10-year Treasury yield
: Trading around 4.41%, slightly higher, indicating a modest risk appetite.
What's the overall outlook for today's stock market session?
The sentiment heading into Thursday's session is mixed but cautiously optimistic:
Nasdaq is expected to lead
, backed by strong tech and AI growth momentum.
S&P 500 could hold steady
, supported by trade optimism and selective earnings strength.
Dow might stay in the red
, unless industrials or automakers show surprise resilience.
Retail investors are still heavily involved, with JPMorgan, Barclays, and Schwab all noting that individual trader sentiment is driving momentum across major sectors—especially tech and options markets.
What should investors watch for next?
Here's what could move the markets further today and in the days ahead:
Upcoming earnings to watch:
American Airlines (AAL)
Blackstone (BX)
Microsoft (MSFT)
AT&T (T)
GE Vernova (GEV)
Texas Instruments (TXN)
– Follow-through selling or bounce?
Key macro events:
Fed Meeting
– July 30 (watch for tone on inflation and future rate cuts)
Trade deadline
– August 1 for US–EU and US–China negotiations
PMI, housing data, jobless claims
– Real-time check on the U.S. economy
What this means for investors
The U.S. stock market futures are flashing mixed signals, reflecting both optimism and caution. Strong tech earnings and trade breakthroughs are lifting risk appetite, but weak industrial earnings and inflation concerns are capping gains—especially in the Dow.
Today's session could bring volatility depending on incoming economic data. But overall,
Nasdaq and AI stocks continue to lead the rally
, while broader indices like the S&P 500 remain resilient near all-time highs.
FAQs:
Q1: Why is the Nasdaq rising today?
Nasdaq is up due to strong AI-fueled earnings from big tech like Alphabet and ServiceNow.
Q2: What's pulling the Dow Jones down today?
Tesla and IBM earnings missed expectations, dragging down Dow futures.
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