$4,000 gold? Trump's tariffs exemption has market watchers predicting another rally for the metal

CNBC

2 days ago

Market watchers are predicting another rally for gold after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the metal would be exempt from new tariffs — even as some uncertainty lingers. Last week, U.S. gold futures touched on an all-time high following reports that some gold bars could be hit with Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs. There had been some confusion over whether gold would be exempt from the new import duties. On July 31, a Swiss gold refiner was told in a ruling from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP) that their one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be categorized under a customs code that would not exempt them from reciprocal tariffs. In a Monday post on his Truth Social platform, however, Trump confirmed that "Gold will not be Tariffed!" It came after the White House said it would issue a clarification on what it labeled "misinformation" on gold bar tariffs. Gold futures fell following the update. By 8:12 a.m. ET on Tuesday, contracts for December delivery fell another 0.35% to trade at $3,392.90. Spot gold , meanwhile, was little changed, trading at $3,339.60 an ounce. @GC.1 5D line Gold futures Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, was already bullish on gold — whether or not it was subject to the Trump administration's tariffs regime. He told CNBC earlier this week that he believes gold prices could exceed his $4,000 target price, adding on Tuesday that the president's confirmation that the metal is exempt from so-called reciprocal tariffs frees up room for gold to soar to new heights. "Donald Trump stepped back from the brink on the gold tariff," he said. "Gold has been a currency and a safe haven for all of history. For it to play that role, it should have one clear and transparent price everywhere in the world and not different prices in different locations. Therefore, this news is gold market positive." Gijsels noted that gold typically outperforms in times of turmoil, uncertainty and volatility. "At times when people worry about unsustainably high deficits and debt levels, and inflation is running up, people look for a beacon of stability," he said. "In short, the current environment is the perfect storm for gold. This means that the bull market in the yellow metal may only be in its very first inning." Tariffs 'create havoc on the ground' UBS is also forecasting an increase in the price of spot gold. By the end of the year, the Swiss investment bank expects London spot gold will reach $3,500 an ounce, its strategists said in a Tuesday note. That's a premium of around 4.5% on current prices. "The recent debacle over the US's gold import classifications signals how tariff pronouncements, interpretations, and subsequent practical application by different parts of the Trump administration can create havoc on the ground," they said. They added that "dramatic events are hard to forget," arguing that even with clarification of a tariff exemption from the White House, the earlier confusion was likely to have some lasting impact on gold investors' mindsets. "So, while we don't see this impacting demand for gold per se (in fact, it could enhance it), where and how investors hold gold is now even more important," UBS' strategists added. "Our benchmark target for the London spot price is USD 3,500/oz by end-2025, with even greater upside if economic or geopolitical risks step higher." Uncertainty persists The tariffs exemption for gold came at no surprise for markets, Michael Hsueh, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, told CNBC on Tuesday. "It's as expected by the market, seen by the narrowing of the matched EFP spread between London and New York already yesterday," he said in an email. The spread of the EFP, or exchange for physical trading strategy, to which Hsueh referred is a measure of the price difference between gold futures in New York and spot prices in London. After news broke that gold may be subject to Trump's country-specific tariffs, some analysts raised questions about how futures contracts would be settled if the cost of importing the metal rose. Hsueh added on Tuesday that, given the July ruling on import codes, some confusion still lingered. "There is still some uncertainty over how the contradiction will be resolved, but this does not have any obvious market implications (as long as it is resolved)," he said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom and Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.