Will There Be an Election Shake-Up? DPP and Sanseito Challenge LDP Grip

Japan Forward

17-07-2025

In a July 2 debate ahead of the July 20 Upper House election, leaders of Japan's major parties sparred over economic policy, energy and nuclear power, defense, and constitutional reform. It introduced the parties and set the stage for a more policy-oriented July 6 debate.
On July 6, a Niconico-hosted online debate brought together leaders from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, along with key opposition parties. Sharp contrasts emerged, particularly between establishment parties and challengers like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the rising Sanseito, on the major issues defining this election.
In fall 2024, the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the Lower House Election. Polls suggest the coalition may now fall short of a majority in the 248-seat chamber. Meanwhile, challengers like the DPP and Sanseito are positioning themselves as serious contenders.
Economic policy dominated the early part of the debate, with each leader outlining plans to spur growth and protect livelihoods. LDP leader and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba argued that his government's policies have begun to deliver results. He cited a "5.25% wage increase, the highest on record, and ¥107 trillion JPY ($660 billion USD) in private investment, also a record."
Ishiba vowed to shift Japan away from a cost-cutting economic model toward one centered on value creation and sustained growth. His vision is for an economy driven by higher wages and increased corporate investment. He set a bold target to "achieve a ¥1,000 trillion ($6.45 trillion) GDP" in the near future.
Opposition parties, however, pressed for bolder measures to directly ease the burden on consumers. Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Yoshihiko Noda called for tackling wage stagnation. He suggested converting more non-regular workers to regular employment and cutting employers' social insurance costs to enable pay raises.
Meanwhile, Yuichiro Tamaki of the DPP unveiled what he called a "new three-arrow strategy" to revitalize growth. Tamaki's plan focuses on boosting take-home pay, tripling private investment, and doubling budgets for education and science.
By raising income tax deductions to put more money in consumers' pockets and aggressively incentivizing corporate investment, Tamaki also pledged to achieve a ¥1,000 trillion GDP within 10 years. "Hand in hand with that," he added, "we'll issue an 'education bond' to ramp up R&D and innovation, investing in people and technology to drive Japan's future." DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki delivers a street speech in front of JR Akihabara Station. July 13, Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei by Katsuyuki Seki)
Newcomer Sanseito, running on a populist "Japan First" platform, has struck a chord with voters hit by rising prices. Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya argued for sweeping tax and social security relief.
"Our policy is first and foremost tax cuts," he said, proposing to cap the total burden of taxes (including income taxes) plus social insurance at 35% of income. Under this plan, any excess burden would trigger automatic reductions, a bold promise to ensure "people keep two-thirds of what they earn."
Kamitani also called for the government to spend robustly on public works, agriculture, and local government services to revitalize regional economies.
The result is unprecedented support for both Sanseito and the DPP. Polling suggests the DPP could triple its pre-election seat count (formerly four). Sanseito's surge could net it double-digit seats in the upper house for the first time.
Meanwhile, smaller parties on the left flank advocate more radical economic fixes but remain on the margins. Taro Yamamoto of Reiwa Shinsengumi continued to demand the outright abolition of the consumption tax to spur spending, combined with expanded cash handouts.
The Japanese Communist Party's (JCP) Tomoko Tamura likewise called for an immediate cut of the consumption tax to 5% and taxing corporate internal reserves. She argued that "the engine of the economy is household consumption" and more wealth must be redistributed to struggling families.
Energy policy emerged as a flashpoint, revealing a clear divide between pro-nuclear camps and anti-nuclear holdouts.
Prime Minister Ishiba stressed the importance of bolstering energy self-sufficiency. He even suggested Japan "carry out new construction and expansion of domestic nuclear plants." This, he argued, would reduce overreliance on imported fossil fuels.
Notably, the DPP largely aligns with the LDP on nuclear energy. Tamaki's party supports the early restart of safe reactors. It also advocates building new advanced nuclear plants, seeing them as vital for energy security and climate goals
The DPP calls for streamlining regulatory reviews to avoid unnecessary delays. Additionally, the DPP proposes steps to have Japan's Self-Defense Forces ready to help protect nuclear facilities.
Sanseito goes a step further, bluntly rejecting what it calls "excessive carbon-neutral policies." Kamiya argued that Japan should "stop pushing renewables at the expense of reliability" and instead invest in next-generation small modular reactors and even nuclear fusion research. Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya speaks to the press. July 3, Chuo Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei by Shinpei Okuhara)
Sanseito's platform calls for withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, calling for a pivot back to dependable energy sources. The party is skeptical about the current climate policy that undermines Japan's energy independence. "We'll end the 'carbon zero' dogma," Kamitani said.
In stark contrast, the left-leaning opposition maintains a staunch anti-nuclear stance, though it appears increasingly out of step. The CDP advocates phasing out nuclear power by 2050 and promises "no new reactors," emphasizing renewables and efficiency instead.
Even this, however, is a moderation from the CDP's earlier posture. Its 2025 manifesto notably toned down language about immediately shutting all reactors.
Both the JCP and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) remain uncompromising. They call for immediate nuclear abolition and a 100% renewable energy society. SDP leader Mizuho Fukushima, for example, used the slogan "Rice before missiles" to link her anti-nuclear, pro-peace message with protecting ordinary people's livelihoods.
Furthermore, both parties also oppose the planned release of treated Fukushima plant water into the ocean.
However, with power supply jitters and climate goals in play, the anti-nuclear camp's message finds diminishing traction. Even Komeito, the LDP's junior partner, which has been historically cautious about nuclear energy, has shifted. It deleted prior language from its manifesto about aiming to phase out nuclear, now endorsing the development of new reactors.
Debate over national defense and constitutional reform revealed a notable realignment in Japanese politics. Across the spectrum, from the LDP to the DPP, Nippon Ishin no Kai, and Sanseito, there is growing consensus on bolstering Japan's defense amid regional threats.
Ishiba, a longtime security hawk, has made clear his determination to boost defense spending and update Japan's postwar pacifist Constitution. He argues that Japan can no longer afford ambivalence about its Self-Defense Forces. "If we avert our eyes from constitutional debate, we let the very foundation of the nation tremble," Ishiba said, voicing support for finally revising the war-renouncing Article 9 to formally recognize the SDF. "This election is a good chance to have that discussion," he added.
Strikingly, key opposition figures echoed the call for a stronger defense and even constitutional change. Hirofumi Yoshimura of Ishin no Kai asserted that reinforcing Japan's defenses is "absolutely necessary." He noted that "China spends four to five times what Japan does on defense" and pointed out that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons.
Yoshimura also argued that "Our neighbors China, Russia, North Korea pose a very real threat – this is the reality." Furthermore, he bluntly declared, "Constitutional Article 9 must be amended" so Japan can protect itself.
Even the traditionally cautious DPP is on board with a more robust self-defense posture. "Our principle is that our nation must be defended by our own hands," Tamaki emphasized during the debate.
He voiced support for the recent defense budget increases, but cautioned that "just using tax money to buy finished weapons from the United States won't truly boost our self-defense capability." Instead, Tamaki insisted, Japan should invest in its domestic defense industry and advanced technologies (like cyber defense) so that the country can independently sustain its security.
The DPP has prided itself on a "realistic security" stance, backing stronger defense measures and even proposing legislation (which passed) to enable more active cyber defense. Tamaki's comments underscored that stance, as he noted his party helped initiate an Active Cyber Defense law, though "we need to train far more experts to implement it."
On the other side of this issue stand the JCP and SDP, whose pacifist views are increasingly isolated.
Tamura dismissed the ruling party's military buildup plans as dangerous, arguing that "stockpiling missiles to attack other countries – is that what we call defense? If we get into a missiles-versus-missiles race, how can peace ever come out of that?" she challenged. "The most realistic security policy," she claimed, "is making sure disputes never turn into war, through diplomacy, nothing else." Japanese Communist Party Chair Tomoko Tamura delivers her first campaign speech in front of JR Ikebukuro Station. July 3, Toshima Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei by Shunsuke Sakamaki)
SDP's Fukushima likewise urged a diplomacy-first approach. She warned Japan against "joining America's wars," invoking the pacifist ideals of the postwar Constitution. Yet, even many voters who once hewed to pacifism are reconsidering in light of aggressive moves by China and North Korea.
The fringe parties' refrain of absolute pacifism – "protect Article 9 peace at all costs" – has a dwindling audience. As one example, polls indicate the JCP is fighting merely to hold onto around five seats in this election, hardly a sign of surging support for its message.
Meanwhile, the once-mainstream CDP has failed to gain ground. Despite attacking the LDP on inflation and pensions, polls suggest it will hold steady at around 22 seats, with no significant gains. Its urban liberal base appears fragmented or apathetic.
The real competition in 2025 is no longer between the LDP and the largest opposition party, but from newer forces reshaping Japan's political map. Some polls now suggest the LDP-Komeito coalition could lose its upper house majority, a scenario once unthinkable. Prime Minister Ishiba has set a target of 50 seats (including coalition partners) to hold control. Many observers believe this will not happen.
Whether voters stick with the status quo or decide to give others a chance may define the next chapter of Japanese politics.
Author: Daniel Manning