Opinion: The retrenchment of Russian power and influence in the Middle East
Stalin occupied Northern Iran during and after the Second World War. Then, shortly after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Soviet Leadership attempted to extend an olive branch to the new anti-U.S. regime, only to be swiftly rebuffed by Ayatollah Khomeini who took a dim view of the U.S.S.R.'s invasion of Afghanistan and Soviet atheism.
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Putin's Russia, horrified by its inability to counter U.S. actions in Iraq after the 2003 invasion realigned away from the West after 2007 and sought new partners in the region. Following the 'Arab Spring' of 2011, Russia and Iran gradually moved closer, first in supporting their mutual Syrian proxy, and increasingly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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Iran sensed both a useful foe-turned-ally against the common threat of the U.S., and a commercial opportunity in supplying thousands of Shahed drones. More recent technology transfer has seen the creation of a factory in the Alabuga special economic zone in Tatarstan to build 6,000 drones by summer 2025. Iran has secured treasure — literally in the form of gold bars — amid much speculation about what else Russia is helping with, including its nuclear program.
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But Russia's retrenchment in the region since 2024 has shown it can only service one priority — its campaign in Ukraine.
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Despite the photo opportunities and grand words, the reality of Iranian, Russian, and now Chinese relations is purely transactional. China buys around 90 per cent of Iran's oil exports. Russia likely hopes to usurp this to offset the bargain basement prices China has paid for Russian oil since 2022, and Russia has sensed an opportunity to try to restart negotiations on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China.
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President Trump has dismissed Russian diplomatic efforts in the Middle East telling Putin, 'mediate your own (conflict)' in a tacit reference to Trump's frustration over a lack of peace in Ukraine.
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Given Arab unease with the U.S.' actions in Iran, China may seek to pursue its commercial and strategic interests in the region as with its brokering of the 2023 rapprochement between Iran and Saudi.
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China still plays catch up, given the scale of U.S. military assets and diplomatic heft, but many ' Asia First ' defence hawks like Elbridge Colby doubt a long-term presence in the Middle East now the U.S. is largely energy independent.
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